Complete ZVRA Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
ZVRA DCF Analysis
ZVRA (Zevra Therapeutics, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $10.2M | $27.5M | $23.6M | $29.5M | $36.9M | $46.1M | $57.6M | $72.1M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 170.3% | -14.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| EBIT | $-24.8M | $-49.6M | $-87.0M | $1.5M | $1.8M | $2.3M | $2.9M | $3.6M |
| EBIT Margin % | -244.5% | -180.6% | -368.5% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| NOPAT | $-18.6M | $-37.2M | $-65.3M | $1.1M | $1.4M | $1.7M | $2.2M | $2.7M |
| NOPAT Margin % | -183.4% | -135.5% | -276.4% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% |
| Capex | $93.0K | $296.0K | $0 | $295.1K | $368.9K | $461.2K | $576.5K | $720.6K |
| Capex / Revenue % | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% |
| Depreciation | $944.0K | $1.0M | $6.4M | $3.9M | $4.9M | $6.2M | $7.7M | $9.6M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 9.3% | 3.7% | 27.1% | 13.3% | 13.3% | 13.3% | 13.3% | 13.3% |
| Change in NWC | $-29.5M | $-68.1M | $38.7M | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | -290.6% | -247.9% | 164.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Unlevered FCF | $11.7M | $31.6M | $-97.6M | $4.7M | $5.9M | $7.4M | $9.3M | $11.6M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | 168.9% | -409.0% | 104.9% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| FCF / Revenue % | 115.6% | 115.0% | -413.4% | 16.1% | 16.1% | 16.1% | 16.1% | 16.1% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.892 | 0.795 | 0.709 | 0.632 | 0.564 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $4.2M | $4.7M | $5.3M | $5.9M | $6.5M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $4.2M | $9.0M | $14.2M | $20.1M | $26.6M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 6.9% |
| Tax Rate | 25.0% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.2% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.40% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 1.99 |
| Cost of Equity | 13.0% |
| Total Debt | $60.3M |
| Market Cap | $494.3M |
| Total Capital | $554.6M |
| Debt Weighting | 10.9% |
| Equity Weighting | 89.1% |
| WACC | 12.1% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $11.6M |
| Terminal Value | $123.1M |
| PV of Terminal Value | $69.4M |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $26.6M |
| Net Debt | $26.5M |
| Equity Value | $69.5M |
| Shares Outstanding | 46.3M |
| Implied Share Price | $2 |
| Current Share Price | $9 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | -83.4% |
Valuation Summary
$1.50
Implied Price
$9.04
Current Price
-83.4%
Upside/Downside
12.1%
WACC
ZVRA Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 10 peer companies in Healthcare
P/E Ratio
$-105.85
-1270.9%
Peer Median: 62.2x
EV/EBITDA
$0.00
-100.0%
Peer Median: 45.5x
P/S Ratio
$6.86
-24.1%
Peer Median: 9.2x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for ZVRA's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | ZVRA Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -5.3x | 62.2x | 35.6x | -108.5% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | Infinityx | 45.5x | 25.2x | Infinity% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 12.2x | 9.2x | 8.7x | 31.8% | Overvalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0.60B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.0x | |
| $0.45B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 9.2x | |
| $0.57B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 227.9x | |
| $0.53B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 1.2x | |
| $0.49B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 12.2x | |
| $0.37B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 19.4x | |
| $0.41B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.5x | |
| $0.44B | 9.0x | 5.0x | 3.6x | |
| $0.46B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 640.4x | |
| $727.54B | 62.2x | 45.5x | 14.8x |