Complete TLRY Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
TLRY DCF Analysis
TLRY (Tilray Brands, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $628.4M | $627.1M | $788.9M | $930.0M | $1.1B | $1.2B | $1.4B | $1.6B |
| Revenue Growth % | - | -0.2% | 25.8% | 17.9% | 16.1% | 14.5% | 13.0% | 11.7% |
| EBIT | $153.3M | $-1.4B | $-174.7M | $46.5M | $54.0M | $61.8M | $69.9M | $78.0M |
| EBIT Margin % | 24.4% | -218.4% | -22.1% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| NOPAT | $115.0M | $-1.0B | $-131.1M | $34.9M | $40.5M | $46.3M | $52.4M | $58.5M |
| NOPAT Margin % | 18.3% | -163.8% | -16.6% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% |
| Capex | $34.1M | $20.8M | $29.2M | $46.5M | $51.3M | $55.8M | $60.0M | $63.6M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 5.4% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.1% |
| Depreciation | $154.6M | $130.1M | $126.9M | $190.5M | $221.1M | $253.1M | $286.1M | $319.7M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 24.6% | 20.8% | 16.1% | 20.5% | 20.5% | 20.5% | 20.5% | 20.5% |
| Change in NWC | $40.8M | $-183.1M | $38.5M | $5.6M | $5.2M | $4.7M | $4.3M | $3.8M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | 6.5% | -29.2% | 4.9% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Unlevered FCF | $194.7M | $-734.8M | $-71.9M | $173.2M | $205.1M | $238.9M | $274.3M | $310.7M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | -477.4% | 90.2% | 341.0% | 18.4% | 16.5% | 14.8% | 13.3% |
| FCF / Revenue % | 31.0% | -117.2% | -9.1% | 18.6% | 19.0% | 19.3% | 19.6% | 19.9% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.917 | 0.840 | 0.770 | 0.706 | 0.648 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $158.8M | $172.4M | $184.1M | $193.7M | $201.2M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $158.8M | $331.1M | $515.2M | $709.0M | $910.2M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 6.9% |
| Tax Rate | 25.0% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.2% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.40% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 1.93 |
| Cost of Equity | 12.7% |
| Total Debt | $387.3M |
| Market Cap | $413.2M |
| Total Capital | $800.5M |
| Debt Weighting | 48.4% |
| Equity Weighting | 51.6% |
| WACC | 9.1% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $310.7M |
| Terminal Value | $4.8B |
| PV of Terminal Value | $3.1B |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $910.2M |
| Net Debt | $159.0M |
| Equity Value | $3.9B |
| Shares Outstanding | 742.6M |
| Implied Share Price | $5 |
| Current Share Price | $0 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | +1198.8% |
Valuation Summary
$5.23
Implied Price
$0.40
Current Price
+1198.8%
Upside/Downside
9.1%
WACC
TLRY Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 10 peer companies in Healthcare
P/E Ratio
$-64.74
-16167.3%
Peer Median: 62.2x
EV/EBITDA
$0.00
-100.0%
Peer Median: 45.4x
P/S Ratio
$7.55
+1772.9%
Peer Median: 9.4x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for TLRY's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | TLRY Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -0.4x | 62.2x | 35.5x | -100.6% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | Infinityx | 45.4x | 25.1x | Infinity% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 0.5x | 9.4x | 7.0x | -94.7% | Undervalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0.45B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 9.4x | |
| $0.56B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 225.8x | |
| $0.55B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 1.3x | |
| $0.50B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 12.3x | |
| $0.39B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 20.6x | |
| $0.41B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.5x | |
| $0.43B | 8.9x | 4.9x | 3.6x | |
| $0.45B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 619.5x | |
| $0.40B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.0x | |
| $726.77B | 62.2x | 45.4x | 14.8x |