Complete SEPN Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
SEPN DCF Analysis
SEPN (Septerna, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $0 | $151.0K | $1.1M | $1.3M | $1.7M | $2.1M | $2.6M | $3.3M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | Infinity% | 611.9% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| EBIT | $-28.0M | $2.1M | $-80.8M | $67.2K | $84.0K | $105.0K | $131.2K | $164.0K |
| EBIT Margin % | 0.0% | 1374.2% | -7518.4% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 14.2% | 25.0% | 21.4% | 21.8% | 22.1% | 22.5% | 22.8% |
| NOPAT | $-21.0M | $1.8M | $-60.6M | $52.8K | $65.7K | $81.8K | $101.7K | $126.6K |
| NOPAT Margin % | -Infinity% | 1179.2% | -5638.8% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.9% |
| Capex | $1.3M | $2.9M | $2.1M | $40.3K | $50.4K | $63.0K | $78.7K | $98.4K |
| Capex / Revenue % | Infinity% | 1906.0% | 195.6% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% |
| Depreciation | $577.0K | $848.0K | $1.4M | $InfinityB | $InfinityB | $InfinityB | $InfinityB | $InfinityB |
| D&A / Revenue % | Infinity% | 561.6% | 130.3% | Infinity% | Infinity% | Infinity% | Infinity% | Infinity% |
| Change in NWC | $0 | $79.4M | $238.2M | $13.4K | $16.8K | $21.0K | $26.2K | $32.8K |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | NaN% | 52594.0% | 22159.2% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% |
| Unlevered FCF | $-21.7M | $-79.7M | $-299.5M | $InfinityB | $InfinityB | $InfinityB | $InfinityB | $InfinityB |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | -267.3% | -276.0% | Infinity% | NaN% | NaN% | NaN% | NaN% |
| FCF / Revenue % | -Infinity% | -52759.2% | -27863.3% | Infinity% | Infinity% | Infinity% | Infinity% | Infinity% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.820 | 0.673 | 0.552 | 0.452 | 0.371 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $InfinityB | $InfinityB | $InfinityB | $InfinityB | $InfinityB |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $InfinityB | $InfinityB | $InfinityB | $InfinityB | $InfinityB |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 6.9% |
| Tax Rate | 21.4% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.4% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.40% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 4.26 |
| Cost of Equity | 22.8% |
| Total Debt | $25.5M |
| Market Cap | $464.3M |
| Total Capital | $489.8M |
| Debt Weighting | 5.2% |
| Equity Weighting | 94.8% |
| WACC | 21.9% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $InfinityB |
| Terminal Value | $InfinityB |
| PV of Terminal Value | $InfinityB |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $InfinityB |
| Net Debt | $-212.7M |
| Equity Value | $InfinityB |
| Shares Outstanding | 98.9M |
| Implied Share Price | $InfinityB |
| Current Share Price | $10 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | +Infinity% |
Valuation Summary
$Infinity
Implied Price
$10.42
Current Price
+Infinity%
Upside/Downside
21.9%
WACC
SEPN Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 10 peer companies in Healthcare
P/E Ratio
$-39.35
-477.6%
Peer Median: 62.2x
EV/EBITDA
$0.00
-100.0%
Peer Median: 45.5x
P/S Ratio
$0.17
-98.4%
Peer Median: 10.5x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for SEPN's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | SEPN Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -16.5x | 62.2x | 35.6x | -126.5% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | Infinityx | 45.5x | 25.2x | Infinity% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 640.4x | 10.5x | 8.1x | 5995.7% | Overvalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0.53B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 1.2x | |
| $0.49B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 12.2x | |
| $0.37B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 19.4x | |
| $0.41B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.5x | |
| $0.44B | 9.0x | 5.0x | 3.6x | |
| $0.46B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 640.4x | |
| $0.41B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.0x | |
| $0.45B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 2.6x | |
| $0.59B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 10.5x | |
| $727.54B | 62.2x | 45.5x | 14.8x |