Complete SIGA Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 6 different methodologies
SIGA DCF Analysis
SIGA (SIGA Technologies, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $110.8M | $139.9M | $138.7M | $145.4M | $151.7M | $157.6M | $163.2M | $168.3M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 26.3% | -0.9% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 3.2% |
| EBIT | $42.7M | $83.6M | $70.0M | $58.2M | $60.7M | $63.1M | $65.3M | $67.3M |
| EBIT Margin % | 38.5% | 59.8% | 50.4% | 40.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 23.2% | 22.5% | 22.2% | 22.7% | 22.9% | 23.1% | 23.4% | 23.6% |
| NOPAT | $32.8M | $64.8M | $54.5M | $45.0M | $46.8M | $48.5M | $50.0M | $51.4M |
| NOPAT Margin % | 29.6% | 46.3% | 39.3% | 30.9% | 30.8% | 30.7% | 30.7% | 30.6% |
| Capex | $0 | $21.7K | $42.5K | $1.5M | $1.5M | $1.6M | $1.6M | $1.7M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% |
| Depreciation | $517.6K | $538.3K | $538.4K | $601.1K | $627.2K | $651.7K | $674.6K | $695.9K |
| D&A / Revenue % | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| Change in NWC | $-14.0M | $20.6M | $20.8M | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | -12.6% | 14.7% | 15.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Unlevered FCF | $47.3M | $44.8M | $34.1M | $44.1M | $45.9M | $47.5M | $49.1M | $50.5M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | -5.4% | -23.7% | 29.3% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 2.8% |
| FCF / Revenue % | 42.7% | 32.0% | 24.6% | 30.3% | 30.3% | 30.2% | 30.1% | 30.0% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.922 | 0.850 | 0.783 | 0.722 | 0.666 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $40.7M | $39.0M | $37.2M | $35.4M | $33.6M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $40.7M | $79.7M | $116.9M | $152.3M | $185.9M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 6.9% |
| Tax Rate | 22.7% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.3% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.37% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 0.95 |
| Cost of Equity | 8.5% |
| Total Debt | $546.8K |
| Market Cap | $420.8M |
| Total Capital | $421.3M |
| Debt Weighting | 0.1% |
| Equity Weighting | 99.9% |
| WACC | 8.5% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $50.5M |
| Terminal Value | $864.9M |
| PV of Terminal Value | $575.7M |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $185.9M |
| Net Debt | $-154.9M |
| Equity Value | $916.5M |
| Shares Outstanding | 71.8M |
| Implied Share Price | $13 |
| Current Share Price | $6 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | +116.8% |
Valuation Summary
$12.77
Implied Price
$5.89
Current Price
+116.8%
Upside/Downside
8.5%
WACC
SIGA Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 10 peer companies in Healthcare
P/E Ratio
$41.98
+612.7%
Peer Median: 61.8x
EV/EBITDA
$35.83
+508.4%
Peer Median: 45.1x
P/S Ratio
$5.89
+0.0%
Peer Median: 3.5x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for SIGA's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | SIGA Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 8.7x | 61.8x | 35.2x | -86.0% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.7x | 45.1x | 24.9x | -89.6% | Undervalued |
| P/S Ratio | 3.5x | 3.5x | 7.5x | 0.0% | Fair Value |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0.59B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 236.7x | |
| $0.50B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 1.2x | |
| $0.48B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 11.8x | |
| $0.35B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 18.4x | |
| $0.39B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.5x | |
| $0.42B | 8.7x | 4.7x | 3.5x | |
| $0.47B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 645.3x | |
| $0.39B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.0x | |
| $0.44B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 2.6x | |
| $722.17B | 61.8x | 45.1x | 14.7x |
SIGA Graham Number
Benjamin Graham's conservative valuation formula for defensive investors
Input Data
| EPS (TTM) | $0.68 | Latest 10-K |
| Book Value per Share | $3.01 | Latest 10-K Balance Sheet |
| Graham Constant | 22.5 | Benjamin Graham's formula |
Graham Number Result
$6.78
Intrinsic Value
$5.89
Current Price
+15.1%
Upside/Downside
Confidence: High
Conservative value investing approach
Calculation Breakdown
Formula:
√(22.5 × EPS × BVPS)
Step 1: Multiply constant by EPS
22.5 × 0.68 = 15.29
Step 2: Multiply by Book Value per Share
15.29 × 3.01 = 45.97
Step 3: Take square root
√45.97 = 6.78
Graham Number Result:
$6.78
SIGA Graham Intrinsic Value
Growth-adjusted intrinsic value with two formula variants
Formula Selection
V = EPS × (8.5 + 2g)
Graham's original P/E shortcut for growth, no interest-rate adjustment
V = [EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4] / Y
Graham's 1974 refinement: adds rate-environment sensitivity
Active Formula: Base-Growth
0.68 × (8.5 + 2 × 8.0%)
Input Data & Growth Assumptions
Current EPS (TTM)$0.68
Latest 10-K • 2024-12-31T00:00:00
No positive historical growth rates available.
Graham's formula is designed for growing companies. Use the custom input below with a conservative positive growth estimate (5-10%).
Custom
%
Enter a positive growth rate estimate (0-50%)
Graham Intrinsic Value Result
$16.65
Intrinsic Value
$5.89
Current Price
+182.6%
Upside/Downside
Base Formula
Growth: 8.0%
SIGA Peter Lynch Fair Value
Growth-based valuation using PEG ratio analysis for growth stocks
Fair Value Calculation
EPS (TTM)$0.68
Latest 10-K • 2024-12-31T00:00:00
No positive historical growth rates available. Using custom growth rate slider.
10.0%
1%50%
Fair Value Formula: EPS × Growth Rate
$0.68 × 10.0% = $6.79
$6.79
Fair Value
$5.89
Current Price
+15.3%
Upside/Downside
PEG Analysis
8.7x
Current P/E
10.0%
Growth Rate
0.87
PEG Ratio (P/E ÷ Growth Rate)
Undervalued
PEG Ratio Interpretation:
• PEG < 1.0: Undervalued (growth exceeds P/E)
• PEG = 1.0: Fairly valued (ideal Lynch ratio)
• PEG > 1.5: Overvalued (paying premium for growth)
Peter Lynch's Rule:
"The P/E ratio of any company that's fairly priced will equal its growth rate." A stock with 15% growth should trade at a P/E of 15 (PEG = 1.0).
SIGA Earnings Power Value (EPV)
Normalized earnings-based valuation for sustainable earning power assessment
Earnings Normalization
| Earnings Component | Amount ($B) | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Reported Earnings | 0.1 | Base earnings from financial statements |
| Normalized Earnings | 0.1 | Final normalized earning power |
One-time Items: Remove non-recurring gains/losses
Cyclical Adjustment: Normalize for economic cycle position
EPV Result
$9.04
EPV per Share
$5.89
Current Price
+53.5%
Upside/Downside
9.1%
WACC: 9.1% (calculated from market data)
Confidence: High
Normalized earnings approach
EPV Calculation Breakdown
Enterprise Value Calculation
| Normalized Earnings | $0.1B |
| Cost of Capital | 9.1% |
| Enterprise Value | $0.6B |
Per Share Value
| Enterprise Value | $0.6B |
| Shares Outstanding | 0.1B |
| EPV per Share | $9.04 |
WACC Components
| Cost of Equity | 9.1% |
| After-Tax Cost of Debt | 3.5% |
| Equity Weight | 99.9% |
| Debt Weight | 0.1% |
| WACC | 9.1% |