Complete ETON Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
ETON DCF Analysis
ETON (Eton Pharmaceuticals, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $21.3M | $31.6M | $39.0M | $48.8M | $61.0M | $76.2M | $95.2M | $119.1M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 48.9% | 23.3% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| EBIT | $-8.3M | $-1.2M | $-2.6M | $2.4M | $3.0M | $3.8M | $4.8M | $6.0M |
| EBIT Margin % | -38.9% | -3.8% | -6.7% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| NOPAT | $-6.2M | $-894.0K | $-1.9M | $1.8M | $2.3M | $2.9M | $3.6M | $4.5M |
| NOPAT Margin % | -29.2% | -2.8% | -5.0% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% |
| Capex | $2.8M | $775.0K | $26.0K | $3.7M | $4.4M | $5.3M | $6.2M | $7.4M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 13.1% | 2.4% | 0.1% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.2% |
| Depreciation | $1.8M | $901.0K | $1.1M | $2.3M | $2.9M | $3.6M | $4.5M | $5.6M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 8.3% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.7% |
| Change in NWC | $-5.5M | $-2.9M | $10.5M | $-2.9M | $-2.9M | $-2.9M | $-2.9M | $-2.9M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | -25.9% | -9.3% | 26.9% | -5.9% | -4.8% | -3.8% | -3.0% | -2.4% |
| Unlevered FCF | $-1.7M | $2.2M | $-11.3M | $3.3M | $3.6M | $4.1M | $4.7M | $5.6M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | 227.6% | -619.2% | 129.2% | 10.1% | 12.7% | 15.3% | 17.9% |
| FCF / Revenue % | -8.0% | 6.9% | -29.0% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 4.7% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.912 | 0.832 | 0.759 | 0.692 | 0.631 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $3.0M | $3.0M | $3.1M | $3.3M | $3.5M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $3.0M | $6.0M | $9.1M | $12.4M | $15.9M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 6.9% |
| Tax Rate | 25.0% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.2% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.40% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 1.28 |
| Cost of Equity | 9.9% |
| Total Debt | $29.9M |
| Market Cap | $454.4M |
| Total Capital | $484.3M |
| Debt Weighting | 6.2% |
| Equity Weighting | 93.8% |
| WACC | 9.6% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $5.6M |
| Terminal Value | $79.8M |
| PV of Terminal Value | $50.3M |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $15.9M |
| Net Debt | $15.0M |
| Equity Value | $51.2M |
| Shares Outstanding | 25.9M |
| Implied Share Price | $2 |
| Current Share Price | $17 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | -88.3% |
Valuation Summary
$1.98
Implied Price
$16.95
Current Price
-88.3%
Upside/Downside
9.6%
WACC
ETON Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 9 peer companies in Healthcare
P/E Ratio
$-10.62
-162.7%
Peer Median: 62.3x
EV/EBITDA
$0.00
-100.0%
Peer Median: 45.5x
P/S Ratio
$16.95
+0.0%
Peer Median: 9.4x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for ETON's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | ETON Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -99.4x | 62.3x | 62.3x | -259.6% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | Infinityx | 45.5x | 45.5x | Infinity% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 9.4x | 9.4x | 8.1x | 0.0% | Fair Value |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0.66B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 2.4x | |
| $0.70B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.0x | |
| $0.60B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.0x | |
| $0.45B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 9.4x | |
| $0.57B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 229.5x | |
| $0.54B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 1.3x | |
| $0.50B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 12.4x | |
| $0.38B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 20.1x | |
| $727.98B | 62.3x | 45.5x | 14.9x |