Complete ZIP Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 3 different methodologies
ZIP DCF Analysis
ZIP (ZipRecruiter, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $904.6M | $645.7M | $474.0M | $440.4M | $412.3M | $388.6M | $368.6M | $351.4M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | -28.6% | -26.6% | -7.1% | -6.4% | -5.7% | -5.2% | -4.6% |
| EBIT | $97.2M | $79.4M | $1.3M | $34.2M | $32.5M | $31.0M | $29.8M | $28.7M |
| EBIT Margin % | 10.7% | 12.3% | 0.3% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 8.2% |
| Tax Rate % | 17.0% | 30.4% | 25.0% | 19.5% | 20.0% | 20.6% | 21.1% | 21.7% |
| NOPAT | $80.7M | $55.3M | $946.5K | $27.6M | $26.0M | $24.6M | $23.5M | $22.5M |
| NOPAT Margin % | 8.9% | 8.6% | 0.2% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.4% |
| Capex | $10.5M | $918.0K | $922.0K | $4.5M | $4.1M | $3.9M | $3.7M | $3.5M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% |
| Depreciation | $10.7M | $11.6M | $12.3M | $8.2M | $7.7M | $7.2M | $6.8M | $6.5M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.9% |
| Change in NWC | $334.9M | $-25.2M | $-15.3M | $-10.5M | $-7.9M | $-5.9M | $-4.5M | $-3.4M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | 37.0% | -3.9% | -3.2% | -2.4% | -1.9% | -1.5% | -1.2% | -1.0% |
| Unlevered FCF | $-254.0M | $91.2M | $27.7M | $41.8M | $37.3M | $33.9M | $31.1M | $28.9M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | 135.9% | -69.7% | 51.0% | -10.6% | -9.3% | -8.1% | -7.0% |
| FCF / Revenue % | -28.1% | 14.1% | 5.8% | 9.5% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 8.2% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.927 | 0.860 | 0.798 | 0.740 | 0.686 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $38.7M | $32.1M | $27.0M | $23.0M | $19.9M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $38.7M | $70.9M | $97.9M | $120.9M | $140.8M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 7.4% |
| Tax Rate | 19.5% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 6.0% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.40% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 1.19 |
| Cost of Equity | 9.6% |
| Total Debt | $552.7M |
| Market Cap | $586.7M |
| Total Capital | $1.1B |
| Debt Weighting | 48.5% |
| Equity Weighting | 51.5% |
| WACC | 7.8% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $28.9M |
| Terminal Value | $557.6M |
| PV of Terminal Value | $382.7M |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $140.8M |
| Net Debt | $334.3M |
| Equity Value | $189.2M |
| Shares Outstanding | 98.6M |
| Implied Share Price | $2 |
| Current Share Price | $6 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | -69.6% |
Valuation Summary
$1.92
Implied Price
$6.32
Current Price
-69.6%
Upside/Downside
7.8%
WACC
ZIP Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 8 peer companies in Industrials
P/E Ratio
$-3.26
-151.6%
Peer Median: 16.7x
EV/EBITDA
$2.93
-53.6%
Peer Median: 14.1x
P/S Ratio
$4.50
-28.8%
Peer Median: 0.9x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for ZIP's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | ZIP Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -32.3x | 16.7x | 20.0x | -293.9% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | 47.5x | 14.1x | 16.8x | 238.3% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 1.3x | 0.9x | 1.6x | 40.5% | Overvalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0.70B | 36.7x | 20.8x | 0.7x | |
| $0.64B | 16.7x | 6.4x | 0.7x | |
| $0.65B | 14.7x | 6.3x | 0.9x | |
| $0.56B | 12.9x | 5.6x | 0.5x | |
| $0.62B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 2.5x | |
| $0.59B | 0.0x | 47.5x | 1.3x | |
| $0.25B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.3x | |
| $2104.52B | 19.1x | 14.1x | 5.9x |
ZIP Earnings Power Value (EPV)
Normalized earnings-based valuation for sustainable earning power assessment
Earnings Normalization
| Earnings Component | Amount ($B) | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Reported Earnings | -0.0 | Base earnings from financial statements |
| Normalized Earnings | -0.0 | Final normalized earning power |
One-time Items: Remove non-recurring gains/losses
Cyclical Adjustment: Normalize for economic cycle position
EPV Result
$-2.01
EPV per Share
$6.32
Current Price
-131.8%
Upside/Downside
6.5%
WACC: 6.5% (calculated from market data)
Confidence: High
Normalized earnings approach
EPV Calculation Breakdown
Enterprise Value Calculation
| Normalized Earnings | $-0.0B |
| Cost of Capital | 6.5% |
| Enterprise Value | $-0.2B |
Per Share Value
| Enterprise Value | $-0.2B |
| Shares Outstanding | 0.1B |
| EPV per Share | $-2.01 |
WACC Components
| Cost of Equity | 9.2% |
| After-Tax Cost of Debt | 3.5% |
| Equity Weight | 53.0% |
| Debt Weight | 47.0% |
| WACC | 6.5% |