Complete OB Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
OB DCF Analysis
OB (Outbrain Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $992.1M | $935.8M | $889.9M | $882.0M | $874.9M | $868.6M | $863.0M | $857.9M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | -5.7% | -4.9% | -0.9% | -0.8% | -0.7% | -0.6% | -0.6% |
| EBIT | $-13.5M | $-8.6M | $-12.6M | $44.1M | $43.7M | $43.4M | $43.1M | $42.9M |
| EBIT Margin % | -1.4% | -0.9% | -1.4% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 37.4% | 50.0% | 36.1% | 35.0% | 33.9% | 32.8% | 31.7% |
| NOPAT | $-10.2M | $-5.4M | $-6.3M | $28.2M | $28.4M | $28.7M | $29.0M | $29.3M |
| NOPAT Margin % | -1.0% | -0.6% | -0.7% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.4% |
| Capex | $25.9M | $20.2M | $7.4M | $15.8M | $14.9M | $14.0M | $13.2M | $12.5M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 2.6% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.5% |
| Depreciation | $26.9M | $20.7M | $19.5M | $20.9M | $20.7M | $20.6M | $20.5M | $20.3M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 2.7% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.4% |
| Change in NWC | $-187.2M | $-96.2M | $-50.5M | $-25.0M | $-19.9M | $-15.8M | $-12.5M | $-10.0M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | -18.9% | -10.3% | -5.7% | -2.8% | -2.3% | -1.8% | -1.5% | -1.2% |
| Unlevered FCF | $178.0M | $91.3M | $56.3M | $58.3M | $54.2M | $51.1M | $48.8M | $47.1M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | -48.7% | -38.4% | 3.7% | -7.1% | -5.7% | -4.5% | -3.4% |
| FCF / Revenue % | 17.9% | 9.8% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.5% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.910 | 0.828 | 0.754 | 0.686 | 0.624 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $53.1M | $44.9M | $38.5M | $33.4M | $29.4M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $53.1M | $97.9M | $136.4M | $169.9M | $199.3M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 7.4% |
| Tax Rate | 36.1% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 4.7% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.37% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 1.35 |
| Cost of Equity | 10.2% |
| Total Debt | $15.8M |
| Market Cap | $244.7M |
| Total Capital | $260.5M |
| Debt Weighting | 6.1% |
| Equity Weighting | 93.9% |
| WACC | 9.9% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $47.1M |
| Terminal Value | $653.3M |
| PV of Terminal Value | $407.6M |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $199.3M |
| Net Debt | $-73.3M |
| Equity Value | $680.2M |
| Shares Outstanding | 52.7M |
| Implied Share Price | $13 |
| Current Share Price | $3 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | +397.3% |
Valuation Summary
$12.90
Implied Price
$2.60
Current Price
+397.3%
Upside/Downside
9.9%
WACC
OB Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 8 peer companies in Communication Services
P/E Ratio
$-9.47
-464.9%
Peer Median: 14.6x
EV/EBITDA
$0.00
-100.0%
Peer Median: 8.2x
P/S Ratio
$13.16
+407.1%
Peer Median: 1.3x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for OB's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | OB Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -4.0x | 14.6x | 15.2x | -127.4% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | Infinityx | 8.2x | 14.7x | Infinity% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 0.3x | 1.3x | 1.7x | -80.3% | Undervalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0.63B | 16.5x | 6.4x | 0.7x | |
| $0.65B | 14.6x | 6.3x | 0.9x | |
| $0.55B | 12.9x | 5.6x | 0.5x | |
| $0.61B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 2.5x | |
| $0.60B | 0.0x | 48.1x | 1.3x | |
| $0.24B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.3x | |
| $0.15B | 13.3x | 8.2x | 1.8x | |
| $2049.44B | 18.6x | 13.7x | 5.7x |