Complete KIND Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
KIND DCF Analysis
KIND (Nextdoor Holdings, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $212.8M | $218.3M | $247.3M | $281.4M | $316.5M | $351.9M | $387.3M | $422.4M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 2.6% | 13.3% | 13.8% | 12.4% | 11.2% | 10.1% | 9.1% |
| EBIT | $-144.2M | $-172.3M | $-121.6M | $14.1M | $15.8M | $17.6M | $19.4M | $21.1M |
| EBIT Margin % | -67.8% | -78.9% | -49.2% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| NOPAT | $-108.2M | $-129.2M | $-91.2M | $10.6M | $11.9M | $13.2M | $14.5M | $15.8M |
| NOPAT Margin % | -50.8% | -59.2% | -36.9% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% |
| Capex | $3.2M | $267.0K | $404.0K | $5.9M | $6.3M | $6.6M | $6.9M | $7.2M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 1.5% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.7% |
| Depreciation | $5.7M | $5.8M | $3.9M | $6.5M | $7.3M | $8.1M | $8.9M | $9.7M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 2.7% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.3% |
| Change in NWC | $-137.6M | $-59.1M | $-92.8M | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | -64.7% | -27.1% | -37.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Unlevered FCF | $32.0M | $-64.6M | $5.0M | $11.1M | $12.8M | $14.6M | $16.5M | $18.3M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | -302.1% | 107.8% | 120.5% | 15.4% | 13.9% | 12.6% | 11.4% |
| FCF / Revenue % | 15.0% | -29.6% | 2.0% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.3% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.916 | 0.839 | 0.768 | 0.704 | 0.645 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $10.2M | $10.8M | $11.2M | $11.6M | $11.8M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $10.2M | $21.0M | $32.2M | $43.8M | $55.6M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 7.4% |
| Tax Rate | 25.0% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.5% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.37% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 1.17 |
| Cost of Equity | 9.4% |
| Total Debt | $40.7M |
| Market Cap | $614.1M |
| Total Capital | $654.8M |
| Debt Weighting | 6.2% |
| Equity Weighting | 93.8% |
| WACC | 9.2% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $18.3M |
| Terminal Value | $281.5M |
| PV of Terminal Value | $181.5M |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $55.6M |
| Net Debt | $-4.8M |
| Equity Value | $241.9M |
| Shares Outstanding | 385.1M |
| Implied Share Price | $1 |
| Current Share Price | $2 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | -60.9% |
Valuation Summary
$0.63
Implied Price
$1.60
Current Price
-60.9%
Upside/Downside
9.2%
WACC
KIND Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 9 peer companies in Communication Services
P/E Ratio
$-4.45
-377.0%
Peer Median: 18.6x
EV/EBITDA
$0.00
-100.0%
Peer Median: 13.7x
P/S Ratio
$0.58
-63.6%
Peer Median: 0.9x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for KIND's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | KIND Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -6.7x | 18.6x | 23.7x | -136.1% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | Infinityx | 13.7x | 17.1x | Infinity% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 2.5x | 0.9x | 1.6x | 174.4% | Overvalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0.75B | 43.1x | 18.6x | 1.8x | |
| $0.70B | 36.8x | 20.9x | 0.7x | |
| $0.63B | 16.5x | 6.4x | 0.7x | |
| $0.65B | 14.6x | 6.3x | 0.9x | |
| $0.55B | 12.9x | 5.6x | 0.5x | |
| $0.61B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 2.5x | |
| $0.60B | 0.0x | 48.1x | 1.3x | |
| $0.24B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.3x | |
| $2049.44B | 18.6x | 13.7x | 5.7x |