Complete BMBL Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
BMBL DCF Analysis
BMBL (Bumble Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $903.5M | $1.1B | $1.1B | $1.2B | $1.3B | $1.5B | $1.6B | $1.7B |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 16.4% | 1.9% | 12.5% | 11.2% | 10.1% | 9.1% | 8.2% |
| EBIT | $-102.8M | $53.4M | $-700.5M | $60.3M | $67.1M | $73.8M | $80.6M | $87.2M |
| EBIT Margin % | -11.4% | 5.1% | -65.4% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 50.0% | 25.0% | 30.0% | 29.5% | 29.0% | 28.5% | 28.0% |
| NOPAT | $-77.1M | $26.7M | $-525.4M | $42.2M | $47.3M | $52.4M | $57.6M | $62.8M |
| NOPAT Margin % | -8.5% | 2.5% | -49.0% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.6% |
| Capex | $16.3M | $14.9M | $9.3M | $19.0M | $20.1M | $21.1M | $21.8M | $22.4M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.3% |
| Depreciation | $89.7M | $68.0M | $70.6M | $92.4M | $102.8M | $113.2M | $123.5M | $133.6M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 9.9% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 7.7% |
| Change in NWC | $-3.8M | $-41.6M | $-44.5M | $-25.7M | $-22.9M | $-20.1M | $-17.6M | $-15.2M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | -0.4% | -4.0% | -4.1% | -2.1% | -1.7% | -1.4% | -1.1% | -0.9% |
| Unlevered FCF | $38.0K | $121.3M | $-419.6M | $141.2M | $152.8M | $164.7M | $176.8M | $189.1M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | 319217.1% | -445.8% | 133.7% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.0% |
| FCF / Revenue % | 0.0% | 11.5% | -39.2% | 11.7% | 11.4% | 11.2% | 11.0% | 10.8% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.922 | 0.849 | 0.783 | 0.721 | 0.665 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $130.1M | $129.8M | $128.9M | $127.6M | $125.8M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $130.1M | $259.9M | $388.8M | $516.4M | $642.1M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 6.9% |
| Tax Rate | 30.0% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 4.8% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.40% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 1.90 |
| Cost of Equity | 12.6% |
| Total Debt | $629.5M |
| Market Cap | $559.3M |
| Total Capital | $1.2B |
| Debt Weighting | 53.0% |
| Equity Weighting | 47.0% |
| WACC | 8.5% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $189.1M |
| Terminal Value | $3.2B |
| PV of Terminal Value | $2.1B |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $642.1M |
| Net Debt | $425.2M |
| Equity Value | $2.4B |
| Shares Outstanding | 120.8M |
| Implied Share Price | $20 |
| Current Share Price | $5 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | +261.2% |
Valuation Summary
$19.56
Implied Price
$5.42
Current Price
+261.2%
Upside/Downside
8.5%
WACC
BMBL Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 10 peer companies in Technology
P/E Ratio
$-102.37
-1990.6%
Peer Median: 19.1x
EV/EBITDA
$25.40
+369.1%
Peer Median: 14.1x
P/S Ratio
$9.20
+69.9%
Peer Median: 0.9x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for BMBL's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | BMBL Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -1.0x | 19.1x | 23.8x | -105.3% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.3x | 14.1x | 15.9x | -62.5% | Undervalued |
| P/S Ratio | 0.5x | 0.9x | 1.5x | -41.1% | Undervalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0.69B | 0.0x | 8.2x | 0.7x | |
| $0.74B | 42.9x | 18.5x | 1.8x | |
| $0.70B | 36.7x | 20.8x | 0.7x | |
| $0.64B | 16.7x | 6.4x | 0.7x | |
| $0.65B | 14.7x | 6.3x | 0.9x | |
| $0.56B | 12.9x | 5.6x | 0.5x | |
| $0.62B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 2.5x | |
| $0.59B | 0.0x | 47.5x | 1.3x | |
| $0.25B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.3x | |
| $2104.52B | 19.1x | 14.1x | 5.9x |