Complete TXN Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 5 different methodologies
TXN DCF Analysis
TXN (Texas Instruments Incorporated) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $20.0B | $17.5B | $15.6B | $15.1B | $14.6B | $14.2B | $13.8B | $13.5B |
| Revenue Growth % | - | -12.5% | -10.7% | -3.5% | -3.2% | -2.9% | -2.6% | -2.3% |
| EBIT | $10.1B | $7.3B | $5.5B | $6.0B | $5.8B | $5.7B | $5.5B | $5.4B |
| EBIT Margin % | 50.6% | 41.8% | 34.9% | 40.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 12.8% | 12.2% | 12.0% | 11.4% | 12.7% | 14.1% | 15.5% | 16.8% |
| NOPAT | $8.8B | $6.4B | $4.8B | $5.3B | $5.1B | $4.9B | $4.7B | $4.5B |
| NOPAT Margin % | 44.2% | 36.7% | 30.7% | 35.4% | 34.9% | 34.4% | 33.8% | 33.3% |
| Capex | $2.8B | $5.1B | $4.8B | $1.6B | $1.5B | $1.4B | $1.3B | $1.2B |
| Capex / Revenue % | 14.0% | 28.9% | 30.8% | 10.6% | 10.1% | 9.6% | 9.1% | 8.7% |
| Depreciation | $979.0M | $1.2B | $1.6B | $1.1B | $1.1B | $1.0B | $1.0B | $993.2M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 4.9% | 7.1% | 10.1% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.4% |
| Change in NWC | $-80.0M | $766.0M | $-419.0M | $48.8M | $37.8M | $29.4M | $22.9M | $17.9M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | -0.4% | 4.4% | -2.7% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Unlevered FCF | $7.1B | $1.8B | $2.0B | $4.8B | $4.7B | $4.5B | $4.4B | $4.3B |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | -74.2% | 8.4% | 141.7% | -3.0% | -2.8% | -2.6% | -2.5% |
| FCF / Revenue % | 35.5% | 10.5% | 12.7% | 31.8% | 31.9% | 31.9% | 31.9% | 31.8% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.924 | 0.853 | 0.788 | 0.728 | 0.673 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $4.4B | $4.0B | $3.6B | $3.2B | $2.9B |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $4.4B | $8.4B | $12.0B | $15.2B | $18.1B |
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 4.9% |
| Tax Rate | 11.4% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 4.4% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.43% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 0.95 |
| Cost of Equity | 8.6% |
| Total Debt | $13.6B |
| Market Cap | $165.9B |
| Total Capital | $179.5B |
| Debt Weighting | 7.6% |
| Equity Weighting | 92.4% |
| WACC | 8.2% |
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $4.3B |
| Terminal Value | $76.7B |
| PV of Terminal Value | $51.6B |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $18.1B |
| Net Debt | $10.4B |
| Equity Value | $59.3B |
| Shares Outstanding | 919.0M |
| Implied Share Price | $65 |
| Current Share Price | $183 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | -64.7% |
TXN Dividend Discount Model
TXN dividend discount model based on historical dividend payments and projected dividend growth rates
Historical 5Y CAGR: 8.0%
Cost of equity (risk-free rate + equity risk premium)
| Period | Dividend per Share | YoY Growth | Growth Rate | Period Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|
2025Q2 2024 - Q2 2025 | $5.38Current | $0.24 | +4.7% | TTM |
2024Q2 2023 - Q2 2024 | $5.14 | $0.27 | +5.5% | TTM Historical |
2023Q2 2022 - Q2 2023 | $4.87 | $0.40 | +8.9% | TTM Historical |
2022Q2 2021 - Q2 2022 | $4.47 | $0.51 | +12.9% | TTM Historical |
2021Q2 2020 - Q2 2021 | $3.96 | — | — | TTM Historical |
TTM Methodology
This analysis uses Trailing Twelve Months (TTM) windows for consistent 12-month comparisons. Each period represents dividends paid over a rolling 12-month window ending on the same calendar date, eliminating partial fiscal year distortions and providing accurate growth rate calculations.
TXN Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 9 peer companies in Technology
| Multiple | TXN Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 34.3x | 34.3x | 41.2x | 0.0% | Fair Value |
| EV/EBITDA | 23.1x | 27.3x | 26.7x | -15.3% | Fair Value |
| P/S Ratio | 10.3x | 6.5x | 6.6x | 59.4% | Overvalued |
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $3299.37B | 45.8x | 38.3x | 25.3x | |
| $1134.09B | 115.8x | 46.8x | 20.8x | |
| $179.91B | 81.0x | 30.0x | 6.5x | |
| $165.90B | 34.3x | 23.1x | 10.3x | |
| $160.51B | 14.8x | 12.6x | 3.8x | |
| $106.49B | 22.9x | 9.1x | 3.4x | |
| $106.55B | 68.5x | 27.3x | 11.4x | |
| $85.76B | 21.0x | 85.0x | 1.6x | |
| $51.83B | 0.0x | 66.5x | 9.0x |
TXN Graham Number
Benjamin Graham's conservative valuation formula for defensive investors
| EPS (TTM) | $5.32 | Latest 10-K |
| Book Value per Share | $18.39 | Latest 10-K Balance Sheet |
| Graham Constant | 22.5 | Benjamin Graham's formula |
TXN Earnings Power Value (EPV)
Normalized earnings-based valuation for sustainable earning power assessment
| Earnings Component | Amount ($B) | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Reported Earnings | 4.8 | Base earnings from financial statements |
| Normalized Earnings | 4.8 | Final normalized earning power |
One-time Items: Remove non-recurring gains/losses
Cyclical Adjustment: Normalize for economic cycle position
Enterprise Value Calculation
| Normalized Earnings | $4.8B |
| Cost of Capital | 8.8% |
| Enterprise Value | $54.7B |
Per Share Value
| Enterprise Value | $54.7B |
| Shares Outstanding | 0.9B |
| EPV per Share | $59.57 |
WACC Components
| Cost of Equity | 9.2% |
| After-Tax Cost of Debt | 3.5% |
| Equity Weight | 92.5% |
| Debt Weight | 7.5% |
| WACC | 8.8% |