Complete AMD Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 4 different methodologies
AMD DCF Analysis
AMD (Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $23.6B | $22.7B | $25.8B | $30.9B | $36.4B | $42.3B | $48.4B | $54.7B |
| Revenue Growth % | - | -3.9% | 13.7% | 19.9% | 17.9% | 16.1% | 14.5% | 13.0% |
| EBIT | $1.3B | $401.0M | $1.9B | $1.5B | $1.8B | $2.1B | $2.5B | $2.9B |
| EBIT Margin % | 5.4% | 1.8% | 7.4% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.2% |
| Tax Rate % | 0.0% | 0.0% | 19.2% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 10.3% | 12.1% | 14.0% |
| NOPAT | $1.3B | $401.0M | $1.5B | $1.4B | $1.7B | $1.9B | $2.2B | $2.5B |
| NOPAT Margin % | 5.4% | 1.8% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.5% |
| Capex | $450.0M | $546.0M | $636.0M | $718.5M | $804.6M | $887.3M | $965.0M | $1.0B |
| Capex / Revenue % | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 1.9% |
| Depreciation | $4.3B | $3.6B | $3.2B | $4.7B | $5.6B | $6.5B | $7.4B | $8.4B |
| D&A / Revenue % | 18.1% | 15.7% | 12.3% | 15.3% | 15.3% | 15.3% | 15.3% | 15.3% |
| Change in NWC | $4.3B | $1.4B | $1.7B | $1.3B | $1.2B | $1.1B | $1.0B | $930.5M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | 18.2% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 1.7% |
| Unlevered FCF | $769.0M | $2.0B | $2.4B | $4.2B | $5.2B | $6.4B | $7.6B | $8.9B |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | 157.1% | 20.8% | 75.2% | 25.3% | 21.8% | 19.3% | 16.7% |
| FCF / Revenue % | 3.3% | 8.7% | 9.3% | 13.5% | 14.4% | 15.1% | 15.7% | 16.3% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.886 | 0.785 | 0.696 | 0.617 | 0.546 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $3.7B | $4.1B | $4.4B | $4.7B | $4.9B |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $3.7B | $7.8B | $12.3B | $17.0B | $21.8B |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 4.9% |
| Tax Rate | 6.6% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 4.6% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.43% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 1.97 |
| Cost of Equity | 13.0% |
| Total Debt | $2.2B |
| Market Cap | $181.7B |
| Total Capital | $183.9B |
| Debt Weighting | 1.2% |
| Equity Weighting | 98.8% |
| WACC | 12.9% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $8.9B |
| Terminal Value | $88.1B |
| PV of Terminal Value | $48.1B |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $21.8B |
| Net Debt | $-1.6B |
| Equity Value | $71.5B |
| Shares Outstanding | 1637.0M |
| Implied Share Price | $44 |
| Current Share Price | $112 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | -61.0% |
Valuation Summary
$43.69
Implied Price
$112.06
Current Price
-61.0%
Upside/Downside
12.9%
WACC
AMD Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 9 peer companies in Technology
P/E Ratio
$47.63
-57.5%
Peer Median: 34.8x
EV/EBITDA
$100.43
-10.4%
Peer Median: 27.4x
P/S Ratio
$112.06
+0.0%
Peer Median: 6.5x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for AMD's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | AMD Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 81.8x | 34.8x | 41.6x | 135.3% | Overvalued |
| EV/EBITDA | 30.3x | 27.4x | 27.0x | 10.6% | Fair Value |
| P/S Ratio | 6.5x | 6.5x | 6.6x | 0.0% | Fair Value |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $3385.50B | 47.0x | 39.3x | 25.9x | |
| $1136.74B | 116.1x | 46.9x | 20.8x | |
| $181.69B | 81.8x | 30.3x | 6.5x | |
| $168.06B | 34.8x | 23.4x | 10.5x | |
| $161.70B | 14.9x | 12.7x | 3.8x | |
| $108.18B | 23.3x | 9.2x | 3.5x | |
| $106.82B | 68.6x | 27.4x | 11.4x | |
| $87.68B | 21.0x | 86.3x | 1.7x | |
| $52.52B | 0.0x | 66.5x | 9.1x |
AMD Graham Number
Benjamin Graham's conservative valuation formula for defensive investors
Input Data
| EPS (TTM) | $1.37 | Latest 10-K |
| Book Value per Share | $35.17 | Latest 10-K Balance Sheet |
| Graham Constant | 22.5 | Benjamin Graham's formula |
Graham Number Result
$32.92
Intrinsic Value
$112.06
Current Price
-70.6%
Upside/Downside
Confidence: High
Conservative value investing approach
Calculation Breakdown
Formula:
√(22.5 × EPS × BVPS)
Step 1: Multiply constant by EPS
22.5 × 1.37 = 30.82
Step 2: Multiply by Book Value per Share
30.82 × 35.17 = 1083.71
Step 3: Take square root
√1083.71 = 32.92
Graham Number Result:
$32.92
AMD Earnings Power Value (EPV)
Normalized earnings-based valuation for sustainable earning power assessment
Earnings Normalization
| Earnings Component | Amount ($B) | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Reported Earnings | 1.6 | Base earnings from financial statements |
| Normalized Earnings | 1.6 | Final normalized earning power |
One-time Items: Remove non-recurring gains/losses
Cyclical Adjustment: Normalize for economic cycle position
EPV Result
$10.99
EPV per Share
$112.06
Current Price
-90.2%
Upside/Downside
9.1%
WACC: 9.1% (calculated from market data)
Confidence: High
Normalized earnings approach
EPV Calculation Breakdown
Enterprise Value Calculation
| Normalized Earnings | $1.6B |
| Cost of Capital | 9.1% |
| Enterprise Value | $18.0B |
Per Share Value
| Enterprise Value | $18.0B |
| Shares Outstanding | 1.6B |
| EPV per Share | $10.99 |
WACC Components
| Cost of Equity | 9.2% |
| After-Tax Cost of Debt | 3.5% |
| Equity Weight | 98.8% |
| Debt Weight | 1.2% |
| WACC | 9.1% |