Complete QCOM Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 7 different methodologies
QCOM DCF Analysis
QCOM (QUALCOMM Incorporated) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $44.2B | $35.8B | $39.0B | $42.2B | $45.4B | $48.5B | $51.5B | $54.4B |
| Revenue Growth % | - | -19.0% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 5.5% |
| EBIT | $15.9B | $7.8B | $10.1B | $11.8B | $12.7B | $13.6B | $14.5B | $15.3B |
| EBIT Margin % | 35.9% | 21.7% | 25.8% | 27.8% | 27.9% | 28.0% | 28.1% | 28.2% |
| Tax Rate % | 13.4% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 7.6% | 9.4% | 11.1% | 12.8% | 14.6% |
| NOPAT | $13.7B | $7.7B | $9.9B | $10.9B | $11.5B | $12.1B | $12.6B | $13.1B |
| NOPAT Margin % | 31.1% | 21.4% | 25.3% | 25.7% | 25.3% | 24.9% | 24.5% | 24.1% |
| Capex | $2.3B | $1.4B | $1.0B | $2.0B | $2.0B | $2.1B | $2.1B | $2.1B |
| Capex / Revenue % | 5.1% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.8% |
| Depreciation | $1.8B | $1.8B | $1.7B | $1.9B | $2.0B | $2.2B | $2.3B | $2.4B |
| D&A / Revenue % | 4.0% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.5% |
| Change in NWC | $734.0M | $4.0B | $1.9B | $145.8M | $125.5M | $107.3M | $91.1M | $76.9M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | 1.7% | 11.1% | 4.9% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Unlevered FCF | $12.5B | $4.1B | $8.6B | $10.6B | $11.4B | $12.1B | $12.8B | $13.4B |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | -67.5% | 112.4% | 23.1% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 4.8% |
| FCF / Revenue % | 28.3% | 11.3% | 22.1% | 25.1% | 25.1% | 24.9% | 24.8% | 24.6% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.913 | 0.833 | 0.760 | 0.694 | 0.633 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $9.7B | $9.5B | $9.2B | $8.9B | $8.5B |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $9.7B | $19.2B | $28.4B | $37.2B | $45.7B |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 4.9% |
| Tax Rate | 7.6% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 4.6% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.43% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 1.29 |
| Cost of Equity | 10.0% |
| Total Debt | $14.6B |
| Market Cap | $160.5B |
| Total Capital | $175.1B |
| Debt Weighting | 8.4% |
| Equity Weighting | 91.6% |
| WACC | 9.6% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $13.4B |
| Terminal Value | $194.2B |
| PV of Terminal Value | $123.0B |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $45.7B |
| Net Debt | $6.8B |
| Equity Value | $161.9B |
| Shares Outstanding | 1130.0M |
| Implied Share Price | $143 |
| Current Share Price | $146 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | -2.0% |
Valuation Summary
$143.28
Implied Price
$146.18
Current Price
-2.0%
Upside/Downside
9.6%
WACC
QCOM Dividend Discount Model
QCOM dividend discount model based on historical dividend payments and projected dividend growth rates
DDM Method Selection
Model Assumptions
Historical 5Y CAGR: -0.5%
Cost of equity (risk-free rate + equity risk premium)
Valuation Result
$24.16
Intrinsic Value
$146.18
Current Price
-83.5%
Upside/Downside
Medium Confidence
Dividend History & Growth Analysis
| Period | Dividend per Share | YoY Growth | Growth Rate | Period Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|
2025Q2 2024 - Q2 2025 | $2.55Current | $0.70 | -21.5% | TTM |
2024Q2 2023 - Q2 2024 | $3.25 | $0.20 | +6.6% | TTM Historical |
2023Q2 2022 - Q2 2023 | $3.05 | $0.42 | -12.1% | TTM Historical |
2022Q2 2021 - Q2 2022 | $3.47 | $0.87 | +33.5% | TTM Historical |
2021Q2 2020 - Q2 2021 | $2.60 | — | — | TTM Historical |
TTM Analysis
Average Growth Rate: +1.6%
TTM Methodology
This analysis uses Trailing Twelve Months (TTM) windows for consistent 12-month comparisons. Each period represents dividends paid over a rolling 12-month window ending on the same calendar date, eliminating partial fiscal year distortions and providing accurate growth rate calculations.
Calculation Breakdown
Formula:
Intrinsic Value = D₁ / (r - g)
Substitution:
= $2.54 / (10.0% - -0.5%)
Result:
$24.16
QCOM Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 9 peer companies in Technology
P/E Ratio
$339.90
+132.5%
Peer Median: 34.3x
EV/EBITDA
$330.54
+126.1%
Peer Median: 27.3x
P/S Ratio
$249.68
+70.8%
Peer Median: 6.5x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for QCOM's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | QCOM Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 14.8x | 34.3x | 41.2x | -57.0% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.6x | 27.3x | 26.7x | -53.9% | Undervalued |
| P/S Ratio | 3.8x | 6.5x | 6.6x | -41.5% | Undervalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $3299.37B | 45.8x | 38.3x | 25.3x | |
| $1134.09B | 115.8x | 46.8x | 20.8x | |
| $179.91B | 81.0x | 30.0x | 6.5x | |
| $165.90B | 34.3x | 23.1x | 10.3x | |
| $160.51B | 14.8x | 12.6x | 3.8x | |
| $106.49B | 22.9x | 9.1x | 3.4x | |
| $106.55B | 68.5x | 27.3x | 11.4x | |
| $85.76B | 21.0x | 85.0x | 1.6x | |
| $51.83B | 0.0x | 66.5x | 9.0x |
QCOM Graham Number
Benjamin Graham's conservative valuation formula for defensive investors
Input Data
| EPS (TTM) | $9.90 | Latest 10-K |
| Book Value per Share | $23.25 | Latest 10-K Balance Sheet |
| Graham Constant | 22.5 | Benjamin Graham's formula |
Graham Number Result
$71.98
Intrinsic Value
$146.18
Current Price
-50.8%
Upside/Downside
Confidence: High
Conservative value investing approach
Calculation Breakdown
Formula:
√(22.5 × EPS × BVPS)
Step 1: Multiply constant by EPS
22.5 × 9.90 = 222.80
Step 2: Multiply by Book Value per Share
222.80 × 23.25 = 5180.41
Step 3: Take square root
√5180.41 = 71.98
Graham Number Result:
$71.98
QCOM Graham Intrinsic Value
Growth-adjusted intrinsic value with two formula variants
Formula Selection
V = EPS × (8.5 + 2g)
Graham's original P/E shortcut for growth, no interest-rate adjustment
V = [EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4] / Y
Graham's 1974 refinement: adds rate-environment sensitivity
Active Formula: Base-Growth
9.90 × (8.5 + 2 × 4.3%)
Input Data & Growth Assumptions
Current EPS (TTM)$9.90
Latest 10-K • 2024-09-29T00:00:00
Historical 3Y4.3%
Financial statements
Historical 5Y20.2%
Financial statements
Custom
%
Enter a positive growth rate estimate (0-50%)
Graham Intrinsic Value Result
$170.31
Intrinsic Value
$146.18
Current Price
+16.5%
Upside/Downside
Base Formula
Growth: 4.3%
QCOM Peter Lynch Fair Value
Growth-based valuation using PEG ratio analysis for growth stocks
Fair Value Calculation
EPS (TTM)$9.90
Latest 10-K • 2024-09-29T00:00:00
Historical 3Y4.3%
3-year earnings growth
Historical 5Y20.2%
5-year earnings growth
4.3%
1%50%
Fair Value Formula: EPS × Growth Rate
$9.90 × 4.3% = $43.07
$43.07
Fair Value
$146.18
Current Price
-70.5%
Upside/Downside
PEG Analysis
14.8x
Current P/E
4.3%
Growth Rate
3.39
PEG Ratio (P/E ÷ Growth Rate)
Significantly Overvalued
PEG Ratio Interpretation:
• PEG < 1.0: Undervalued (growth exceeds P/E)
• PEG = 1.0: Fairly valued (ideal Lynch ratio)
• PEG > 1.5: Overvalued (paying premium for growth)
Peter Lynch's Rule:
"The P/E ratio of any company that's fairly priced will equal its growth rate." A stock with 15% growth should trade at a P/E of 15 (PEG = 1.0).
QCOM Earnings Power Value (EPV)
Normalized earnings-based valuation for sustainable earning power assessment
Earnings Normalization
| Earnings Component | Amount ($B) | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Reported Earnings | 10.1 | Base earnings from financial statements |
| Normalized Earnings | 10.1 | Final normalized earning power |
One-time Items: Remove non-recurring gains/losses
Cyclical Adjustment: Normalize for economic cycle position
EPV Result
$102.82
EPV per Share
$146.18
Current Price
-29.7%
Upside/Downside
8.7%
WACC: 8.7% (calculated from market data)
Confidence: High
Normalized earnings approach
EPV Calculation Breakdown
Enterprise Value Calculation
| Normalized Earnings | $10.1B |
| Cost of Capital | 8.7% |
| Enterprise Value | $116.2B |
Per Share Value
| Enterprise Value | $116.2B |
| Shares Outstanding | 1.1B |
| EPV per Share | $102.82 |
WACC Components
| Cost of Equity | 9.2% |
| After-Tax Cost of Debt | 3.5% |
| Equity Weight | 91.9% |
| Debt Weight | 8.1% |
| WACC | 8.7% |