Complete ADI Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 7 different methodologies
ADI DCF Analysis
ADI (Analog Devices, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $12.0B | $12.3B | $9.4B | $10.1B | $10.8B | $11.4B | $12.0B | $12.6B |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 2.4% | -23.4% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 4.8% |
| EBIT | $3.3B | $3.8B | $2.0B | $2.7B | $2.9B | $3.1B | $3.2B | $3.4B |
| EBIT Margin % | 27.3% | 31.1% | 21.6% | 26.6% | 26.7% | 26.8% | 26.9% | 27.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 11.3% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 8.7% | 10.5% | 12.3% | 14.1% |
| NOPAT | $2.9B | $3.5B | $1.9B | $2.5B | $2.6B | $2.7B | $2.8B | $2.9B |
| NOPAT Margin % | 24.2% | 28.5% | 19.8% | 24.8% | 24.4% | 24.0% | 23.6% | 23.2% |
| Capex | $699.3M | $1.3B | $730.5M | $636.5M | $644.2M | $648.1M | $648.3M | $645.2M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 5.8% | 10.3% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.1% |
| Depreciation | $2.3B | $2.3B | $2.1B | $2.0B | $2.2B | $2.3B | $2.4B | $2.5B |
| D&A / Revenue % | 19.1% | 18.6% | 22.3% | 20.0% | 20.0% | 20.0% | 20.0% | 20.0% |
| Change in NWC | $-112.7M | $-1.3B | $1.3B | $-47.4M | $-40.4M | $-34.2M | $-28.8M | $-24.2M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | -0.9% | -10.7% | 13.9% | -0.5% | -0.4% | -0.3% | -0.2% | -0.2% |
| Unlevered FCF | $4.6B | $5.9B | $1.9B | $3.9B | $4.2B | $4.4B | $4.6B | $4.8B |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | 26.8% | -67.0% | 104.3% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 4.3% |
| FCF / Revenue % | 38.4% | 47.6% | 20.5% | 39.0% | 38.8% | 38.7% | 38.5% | 38.3% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.922 | 0.851 | 0.785 | 0.724 | 0.667 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $3.6B | $3.6B | $3.5B | $3.3B | $3.2B |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $3.6B | $7.2B | $10.7B | $14.0B | $17.2B |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 4.9% |
| Tax Rate | 6.9% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 4.6% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.43% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 0.98 |
| Cost of Equity | 8.7% |
| Total Debt | $7.6B |
| Market Cap | $106.5B |
| Total Capital | $114.2B |
| Debt Weighting | 6.7% |
| Equity Weighting | 93.3% |
| WACC | 8.4% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $4.8B |
| Terminal Value | $83.5B |
| PV of Terminal Value | $55.7B |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $17.2B |
| Net Debt | $5.7B |
| Equity Value | $67.3B |
| Shares Outstanding | 498.7M |
| Implied Share Price | $135 |
| Current Share Price | $215 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | -37.2% |
Valuation Summary
$134.92
Implied Price
$214.71
Current Price
-37.2%
Upside/Downside
8.4%
WACC
ADI Dividend Discount Model
ADI dividend discount model based on historical dividend payments and projected dividend growth rates
DDM Method Selection
Model Assumptions
Historical 5Y CAGR: 9.4%
Cost of equity (risk-free rate + equity risk premium)
Valuation Result
$0.00
Intrinsic Value
$214.71
Current Price
-100.0%
Upside/Downside
Medium Confidence
Dividend History & Growth Analysis
| Period | Dividend per Share | YoY Growth | Growth Rate | Period Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|
2025Q2 2024 - Q2 2025 | $3.75Current | $1.11 | +42.0% | TTM |
2024Q2 2023 - Q2 2024 | $2.64 | $0.26 | +10.9% | TTM Historical |
2023Q2 2022 - Q2 2023 | $2.38 | $0.52 | -17.9% | TTM Historical |
2022Q2 2021 - Q2 2022 | $2.90 | $0.28 | +10.7% | TTM Historical |
2021Q2 2020 - Q2 2021 | $2.62 | — | — | TTM Historical |
TTM Analysis
Average Growth Rate: +11.4%
TTM Methodology
This analysis uses Trailing Twelve Months (TTM) windows for consistent 12-month comparisons. Each period represents dividends paid over a rolling 12-month window ending on the same calendar date, eliminating partial fiscal year distortions and providing accurate growth rate calculations.
Calculation Breakdown
Formula:
Error in calculation
Substitution:
Required return must be greater than growth rate for Gordon Growth Model
Result:
$0.00
ADI Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 10 peer companies in Technology
P/E Ratio
$107.65
-49.9%
Peer Median: 34.3x
EV/EBITDA
$226.11
+5.3%
Peer Median: 27.3x
P/S Ratio
$169.10
-21.2%
Peer Median: 9.0x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for ADI's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | ADI Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 68.5x | 34.3x | 41.2x | 99.5% | Overvalued |
| EV/EBITDA | 27.3x | 27.3x | 26.7x | 0.0% | Fair Value |
| P/S Ratio | 11.4x | 9.0x | 6.9x | 27.0% | Overvalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $1134.09B | 115.8x | 46.8x | 20.8x | |
| $179.91B | 81.0x | 30.0x | 6.5x | |
| $165.90B | 34.3x | 23.1x | 10.3x | |
| $160.51B | 14.8x | 12.6x | 3.8x | |
| $106.49B | 22.9x | 9.1x | 3.4x | |
| $106.55B | 68.5x | 27.3x | 11.4x | |
| $85.76B | 21.0x | 85.0x | 1.6x | |
| $51.83B | 0.0x | 66.5x | 9.0x | |
| $51.83B | 0.0x | 66.5x | 9.0x | |
| $3299.37B | 45.8x | 38.3x | 25.3x |
ADI Graham Number
Benjamin Graham's conservative valuation formula for defensive investors
Input Data
| EPS (TTM) | $3.14 | Latest 10-K |
| Book Value per Share | $70.54 | Latest 10-K Balance Sheet |
| Graham Constant | 22.5 | Benjamin Graham's formula |
Graham Number Result
$70.55
Intrinsic Value
$214.71
Current Price
-67.1%
Upside/Downside
Confidence: High
Conservative value investing approach
Calculation Breakdown
Formula:
√(22.5 × EPS × BVPS)
Step 1: Multiply constant by EPS
22.5 × 3.14 = 70.56
Step 2: Multiply by Book Value per Share
70.56 × 70.54 = 4977.18
Step 3: Take square root
√4977.18 = 70.55
Graham Number Result:
$70.55
ADI Graham Intrinsic Value
Growth-adjusted intrinsic value with two formula variants
Formula Selection
V = EPS × (8.5 + 2g)
Graham's original P/E shortcut for growth, no interest-rate adjustment
V = [EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4] / Y
Graham's 1974 refinement: adds rate-environment sensitivity
Active Formula: Base-Growth
3.14 × (8.5 + 2 × 8.0%)
Input Data & Growth Assumptions
Current EPS (TTM)$3.14
Latest 10-K • 2024-11-02T00:00:00
No positive historical growth rates available.
Graham's formula is designed for growing companies. Use the custom input below with a conservative positive growth estimate (5-10%).
Custom
%
Enter a positive growth rate estimate (0-50%)
Graham Intrinsic Value Result
$76.83
Intrinsic Value
$214.71
Current Price
-64.2%
Upside/Downside
Base Formula
Growth: 8.0%
ADI Peter Lynch Fair Value
Growth-based valuation using PEG ratio analysis for growth stocks
Fair Value Calculation
EPS (TTM)$3.14
Latest 10-K • 2024-11-02T00:00:00
No positive historical growth rates available. Using custom growth rate slider.
10.0%
1%50%
Fair Value Formula: EPS × Growth Rate
$3.14 × 10.0% = $31.36
$31.36
Fair Value
$214.71
Current Price
-85.4%
Upside/Downside
PEG Analysis
68.5x
Current P/E
10.0%
Growth Rate
6.85
PEG Ratio (P/E ÷ Growth Rate)
Significantly Overvalued
PEG Ratio Interpretation:
• PEG < 1.0: Undervalued (growth exceeds P/E)
• PEG = 1.0: Fairly valued (ideal Lynch ratio)
• PEG > 1.5: Overvalued (paying premium for growth)
Peter Lynch's Rule:
"The P/E ratio of any company that's fairly priced will equal its growth rate." A stock with 15% growth should trade at a P/E of 15 (PEG = 1.0).
ADI Earnings Power Value (EPV)
Normalized earnings-based valuation for sustainable earning power assessment
Earnings Normalization
| Earnings Component | Amount ($B) | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Reported Earnings | 1.6 | Base earnings from financial statements |
| Normalized Earnings | 1.6 | Final normalized earning power |
One-time Items: Remove non-recurring gains/losses
Cyclical Adjustment: Normalize for economic cycle position
EPV Result
$37.21
EPV per Share
$214.71
Current Price
-82.7%
Upside/Downside
8.8%
WACC: 8.8% (calculated from market data)
Confidence: High
Normalized earnings approach
EPV Calculation Breakdown
Enterprise Value Calculation
| Normalized Earnings | $1.6B |
| Cost of Capital | 8.8% |
| Enterprise Value | $18.6B |
Per Share Value
| Enterprise Value | $18.6B |
| Shares Outstanding | 0.5B |
| EPV per Share | $37.21 |
WACC Components
| Cost of Equity | 9.2% |
| After-Tax Cost of Debt | 3.5% |
| Equity Weight | 93.3% |
| Debt Weight | 6.7% |
| WACC | 8.8% |