Complete TWLO Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
TWLO DCF Analysis
TWLO (Twilio Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $3.8B | $4.2B | $4.5B | $5.3B | $6.2B | $7.1B | $8.1B | $9.0B |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 8.6% | 7.3% | 18.6% | 16.7% | 15.0% | 13.5% | 12.2% |
| EBIT | $-1.0B | $-876.5M | $-53.7M | $264.3M | $308.4M | $354.7M | $402.7M | $451.8M |
| EBIT Margin % | -26.9% | -21.1% | -1.2% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| NOPAT | $-773.2M | $-657.4M | $-40.3M | $198.2M | $231.3M | $266.1M | $302.1M | $338.8M |
| NOPAT Margin % | -20.2% | -15.8% | -0.9% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% |
| Capex | $80.2M | $51.2M | $0 | $104.2M | $115.5M | $126.2M | $136.1M | $145.0M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.0% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.6% |
| Depreciation | $279.1M | $284.4M | $183.0M | $321.5M | $375.2M | $431.6M | $489.9M | $549.6M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 7.3% | 6.8% | 4.1% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 6.1% |
| Change in NWC | $-1.1B | $-10.3M | $-1.5B | $-6.5M | $-6.1M | $-5.6M | $-5.1M | $-4.6M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | -27.5% | -0.2% | -34.5% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% |
| Unlevered FCF | $478.5M | $-414.0M | $1.7B | $422.0M | $497.1M | $577.0M | $661.0M | $748.0M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | -186.5% | 506.2% | -74.9% | 17.8% | 16.1% | 14.5% | 13.2% |
| FCF / Revenue % | 12.5% | -10.0% | 37.7% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 8.3% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.912 | 0.831 | 0.758 | 0.691 | 0.630 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $384.8M | $413.2M | $437.3M | $456.8M | $471.2M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $384.8M | $798.0M | $1.2B | $1.7B | $2.2B |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 5.3% |
| Tax Rate | 25.0% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 4.0% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.34% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 1.31 |
| Cost of Equity | 10.0% |
| Total Debt | $1.1B |
| Market Cap | $20.0B |
| Total Capital | $21.1B |
| Debt Weighting | 5.3% |
| Equity Weighting | 94.7% |
| WACC | 9.7% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $748.0M |
| Terminal Value | $10.7B |
| PV of Terminal Value | $6.7B |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $2.2B |
| Net Debt | $688.9M |
| Equity Value | $8.2B |
| Shares Outstanding | 165.9M |
| Implied Share Price | $49 |
| Current Share Price | $131 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | -62.2% |
Valuation Summary
$49.43
Implied Price
$130.87
Current Price
-62.2%
Upside/Downside
9.7%
WACC
TWLO Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 9 peer companies in Communication Services
P/E Ratio
$-6.61
-105.1%
Peer Median: 31.4x
EV/EBITDA
$33.10
-74.7%
Peer Median: 23.1x
P/S Ratio
$191.02
+46.0%
Peer Median: 6.4x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for TWLO's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | TWLO Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -622.1x | 31.4x | 29.8x | -2079.1% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | 94.6x | 23.1x | 22.2x | 309.1% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 4.4x | 6.4x | 7.4x | -31.5% | Undervalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $49.67B | 0.0x | 122.8x | 25.9x | |
| $69.47B | 0.0x | 799.6x | 39.2x | |
| $23.29B | 31.4x | 31.1x | 5.0x | |
| $24.75B | 31.8x | 23.1x | 15.7x | |
| $16.61B | 621.9x | 276.6x | 6.4x | |
| $19.98B | 0.0x | 94.6x | 4.4x | |
| $19.90B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 9.9x | |
| $11.42B | 26.1x | 12.3x | 2.8x | |
| $73.34B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 20.2x |