Complete OKTA Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 5 different methodologies
OKTA DCF Analysis
OKTA (Okta, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Historical) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) | 2030 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.9B | $2.3B | $2.6B | $3.3B | $4.0B | $4.9B | $5.9B | $6.9B |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 21.8% | 15.3% | 25.0% | 24.1% | 21.7% | 19.5% | 17.6% |
| EBIT | $-783.0M | $-460.0M | $-74.0M | $163.1M | $202.5M | $246.5M | $294.7M | $346.5M |
| EBIT Margin % | -42.1% | -20.3% | -2.8% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 39.1% | 27.8% | 27.5% | 27.3% | 27.0% | 26.7% |
| NOPAT | $-587.3M | $-345.0M | $-45.0M | $117.7M | $146.7M | $179.3M | $215.2M | $254.0M |
| NOPAT Margin % | -31.6% | -15.2% | -1.7% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 3.7% |
| Capex | $23.0M | $24.0M | $20.0M | $42.0M | $49.5M | $57.2M | $65.0M | $72.6M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.0% |
| Depreciation | $114.0M | $84.0M | $88.0K | $107.1M | $133.0M | $161.9M | $193.5M | $227.6M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 6.1% | 3.7% | 0.0% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.3% |
| Change in NWC | $-34.0M | $-566.0M | $-305.0M | $-29.9M | $-29.6M | $-28.9M | $-27.6M | $-26.0M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | -1.8% | -25.0% | -11.7% | -0.9% | -0.7% | -0.6% | -0.5% | -0.4% |
| Unlevered FCF | $-462.3M | $281.0M | $240.0M | $212.7M | $259.9M | $312.8M | $371.3M | $434.9M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | 160.8% | -14.6% | -11.4% | 22.1% | 20.4% | 18.7% | 17.1% |
| FCF / Revenue % | -24.9% | 12.4% | 9.2% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.3% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.929 | 0.863 | 0.801 | 0.744 | 0.691 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $197.6M | $224.2M | $250.6M | $276.3M | $300.6M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $197.6M | $421.8M | $672.4M | $948.7M | $1.2B |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 4.8% |
| Tax Rate | 27.8% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 3.5% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.34% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 0.82 |
| Cost of Equity | 7.9% |
| Total Debt | $952.0M |
| Market Cap | $16.6B |
| Total Capital | $17.6B |
| Debt Weighting | 5.4% |
| Equity Weighting | 94.6% |
| WACC | 7.7% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $434.9M |
| Terminal Value | $8.6B |
| PV of Terminal Value | $6.0B |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $1.2B |
| Net Debt | $543.0M |
| Equity Value | $6.7B |
| Shares Outstanding | 175.1M |
| Implied Share Price | $38 |
| Current Share Price | $99 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | -61.6% |
Valuation Summary
$38.11
Implied Price
$99.34
Current Price
-61.6%
Upside/Downside
7.7%
WACC
OKTA Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 9 peer companies in Technology
P/E Ratio
$5.02
-94.9%
Peer Median: 31.4x
EV/EBITDA
$8.58
-91.4%
Peer Median: 23.1x
P/S Ratio
$99.34
+0.0%
Peer Median: 6.4x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for OKTA's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | OKTA Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 621.9x | 31.4x | 29.8x | 1878.5% | Overvalued |
| EV/EBITDA | 276.6x | 23.1x | 22.2x | 1095.8% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 6.4x | 6.4x | 7.4x | 0.0% | Fair Value |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $73.34B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 20.2x | |
| $49.67B | 0.0x | 122.8x | 25.9x | |
| $69.47B | 0.0x | 799.6x | 39.2x | |
| $23.29B | 31.4x | 31.1x | 5.0x | |
| $24.75B | 31.8x | 23.1x | 15.7x | |
| $16.61B | 621.9x | 276.6x | 6.4x | |
| $19.98B | 0.0x | 94.6x | 4.4x | |
| $19.90B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 9.9x | |
| $11.42B | 26.1x | 12.3x | 2.8x |
OKTA Graham Number
Benjamin Graham's conservative valuation formula for defensive investors
Input Data
| EPS (TTM) | $0.16 | Latest 10-K |
| Book Value per Share | $36.58 | Latest 10-K Balance Sheet |
| Graham Constant | 22.5 | Benjamin Graham's formula |
Graham Number Result
$11.47
Intrinsic Value
$99.34
Current Price
-88.5%
Upside/Downside
Confidence: High
Conservative value investing approach
Calculation Breakdown
Formula:
√(22.5 × EPS × BVPS)
Step 1: Multiply constant by EPS
22.5 × 0.16 = 3.59
Step 2: Multiply by Book Value per Share
3.59 × 36.58 = 131.48
Step 3: Take square root
√131.48 = 11.47
Graham Number Result:
$11.47
OKTA Graham Intrinsic Value
Growth-adjusted intrinsic value with two formula variants
Formula Selection
V = EPS × (8.5 + 2g)
Graham's original P/E shortcut for growth, no interest-rate adjustment
V = [EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4] / Y
Graham's 1974 refinement: adds rate-environment sensitivity
Active Formula: Base-Growth
0.16 × (8.5 + 2 × 8.0%)
Input Data & Growth Assumptions
Current EPS (TTM)$0.16
Latest 10-K • 2025-01-31T00:00:00
No positive historical growth rates available.
Graham's formula is designed for growing companies. Use the custom input below with a conservative positive growth estimate (5-10%).
Custom
%
Enter a positive growth rate estimate (0-50%)
Graham Intrinsic Value Result
$3.91
Intrinsic Value
$99.34
Current Price
-96.1%
Upside/Downside
Base Formula
Growth: 8.0%
OKTA Peter Lynch Fair Value
Growth-based valuation using PEG ratio analysis for growth stocks
Fair Value Calculation
EPS (TTM)$0.16
Latest 10-K • 2025-01-31T00:00:00
No positive historical growth rates available. Using custom growth rate slider.
10.0%
1%50%
Fair Value Formula: EPS × Growth Rate
$0.16 × 10.0% = $1.60
$1.60
Fair Value
$99.34
Current Price
-98.4%
Upside/Downside
PEG Analysis
621.9x
Current P/E
10.0%
Growth Rate
62.19
PEG Ratio (P/E ÷ Growth Rate)
Significantly Overvalued
PEG Ratio Interpretation:
• PEG < 1.0: Undervalued (growth exceeds P/E)
• PEG = 1.0: Fairly valued (ideal Lynch ratio)
• PEG > 1.5: Overvalued (paying premium for growth)
Peter Lynch's Rule:
"The P/E ratio of any company that's fairly priced will equal its growth rate." A stock with 15% growth should trade at a P/E of 15 (PEG = 1.0).