Complete NET Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
NET DCF Analysis
NET (Cloudflare, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $975.2M | $1.3B | $1.7B | $2.1B | $2.6B | $3.3B | $4.1B | $5.0B |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 33.0% | 28.8% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 23.8% |
| EBIT | $-201.2M | $-185.5M | $-154.8M | $104.4M | $130.4M | $163.0M | $203.8M | $252.4M |
| EBIT Margin % | -20.6% | -14.3% | -9.3% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| NOPAT | $-150.9M | $-139.1M | $-116.1M | $78.3M | $97.8M | $122.3M | $152.9M | $189.3M |
| NOPAT Margin % | -15.5% | -10.7% | -7.0% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% |
| Capex | $163.4M | $134.9M | $185.0M | $300.7M | $357.1M | $424.1M | $503.6M | $592.4M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 16.8% | 10.4% | 11.1% | 14.4% | 13.7% | 13.0% | 12.4% | 11.7% |
| Depreciation | $102.3M | $135.8M | $127.7M | $199.1M | $248.9M | $311.1M | $388.8M | $481.5M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 10.5% | 10.5% | 7.6% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 9.5% |
| Change in NWC | $-174.8M | $-74.0M | $59.4M | $-15.0M | $-15.0M | $-15.0M | $-15.0M | $-14.8M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | -17.9% | -5.7% | 3.6% | -0.7% | -0.6% | -0.5% | -0.4% | -0.3% |
| Unlevered FCF | $-37.1M | $-64.2M | $-232.7M | $-8.4M | $4.6M | $24.3M | $53.1M | $93.2M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | -73.1% | -262.4% | 96.4% | 154.5% | 431.6% | 118.7% | 75.6% |
| FCF / Revenue % | -3.8% | -5.0% | -13.9% | -0.4% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.8% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.891 | 0.794 | 0.708 | 0.631 | 0.562 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $-7.5M | $3.6M | $17.2M | $33.5M | $52.4M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $-7.5M | $-3.8M | $13.3M | $46.8M | $99.2M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 4.9% |
| Tax Rate | 25.0% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 3.7% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.37% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 1.85 |
| Cost of Equity | 12.4% |
| Total Debt | $1.5B |
| Market Cap | $72.0B |
| Total Capital | $73.4B |
| Debt Weighting | 2.0% |
| Equity Weighting | 98.0% |
| WACC | 12.2% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $93.2M |
| Terminal Value | $983.3M |
| PV of Terminal Value | $552.5M |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $99.2M |
| Net Debt | $1.3B |
| Equity Value | $-663.8M |
| Shares Outstanding | 341.4M |
| Implied Share Price | $-2 |
| Current Share Price | $208 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | -100.9% |
Valuation Summary
$-1.94
Implied Price
$207.68
Current Price
-100.9%
Upside/Downside
12.2%
WACC
NET Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 9 peer companies in Technology
P/E Ratio
$-7.34
-103.5%
Peer Median: 31.1x
EV/EBITDA
$5.99
-97.1%
Peer Median: 23.4x
P/S Ratio
$31.99
-84.6%
Peer Median: 6.3x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for NET's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | NET Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -878.7x | 31.1x | 29.6x | -2927.9% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | 828.0x | 23.4x | 22.1x | 3431.1% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 40.7x | 6.3x | 7.3x | 549.2% | Overvalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $74.57B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 20.6x | |
| $55.70B | 0.0x | 135.3x | 29.1x | |
| $71.98B | 0.0x | 828.0x | 40.7x | |
| $23.02B | 31.1x | 30.8x | 4.9x | |
| $25.11B | 32.2x | 23.4x | 15.9x | |
| $16.35B | 612.2x | 272.4x | 6.3x | |
| $19.69B | 0.0x | 93.3x | 4.3x | |
| $19.44B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 9.7x | |
| $11.16B | 25.5x | 12.1x | 2.8x |