Complete TH Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 6 different methodologies
TH DCF Analysis
TH (Target Hospitality Corp.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $502.0M | $563.6M | $386.3M | $419.1M | $451.1M | $482.2M | $512.1M | $540.6M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 12.3% | -31.5% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.6% |
| EBIT | $174.4M | $240.6M | $108.8M | $147.5M | $159.2M | $170.7M | $181.8M | $192.4M |
| EBIT Margin % | 34.7% | 42.7% | 28.2% | 35.2% | 35.3% | 35.4% | 35.5% | 35.6% |
| Tax Rate % | 30.4% | 22.7% | 23.1% | 25.2% | 25.2% | 25.2% | 25.2% | 25.1% |
| NOPAT | $121.3M | $186.0M | $83.7M | $110.3M | $119.1M | $127.7M | $136.0M | $144.0M |
| NOPAT Margin % | 24.2% | 33.0% | 21.7% | 26.3% | 26.4% | 26.5% | 26.6% | 26.6% |
| Capex | $120.3M | $68.4M | $30.2M | $39.4M | $40.2M | $40.9M | $41.2M | $41.3M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 24.0% | 12.1% | 7.8% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 7.6% |
| Depreciation | $67.7M | $84.0M | $72.8M | $66.0M | $71.0M | $75.9M | $80.6M | $85.1M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 13.5% | 14.9% | 18.8% | 15.7% | 15.7% | 15.7% | 15.7% | 15.7% |
| Change in NWC | $57.7M | $64.7M | $-94.2M | $-7.4M | $-6.4M | $-5.4M | $-4.6M | $-3.9M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | 11.5% | 11.5% | -24.4% | -1.8% | -1.4% | -1.1% | -0.9% | -0.7% |
| Unlevered FCF | $10.9M | $136.8M | $220.5M | $144.3M | $156.2M | $168.2M | $180.0M | $191.7M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | 1154.2% | 61.1% | -34.6% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 6.5% |
| FCF / Revenue % | 2.2% | 24.3% | 57.1% | 34.4% | 34.6% | 34.9% | 35.2% | 35.5% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.901 | 0.812 | 0.731 | 0.659 | 0.594 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $130.0M | $126.8M | $123.0M | $118.6M | $113.8M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $130.0M | $256.8M | $379.8M | $498.4M | $612.2M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 7.5% |
| Tax Rate | 25.2% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.6% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.46% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 1.87 |
| Cost of Equity | 12.6% |
| Total Debt | $209.6M |
| Market Cap | $724.2M |
| Total Capital | $933.8M |
| Debt Weighting | 22.5% |
| Equity Weighting | 77.5% |
| WACC | 11.0% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $191.7M |
| Terminal Value | $2.3B |
| PV of Terminal Value | $1.4B |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $612.2M |
| Net Debt | $19.0M |
| Equity Value | $2.0B |
| Shares Outstanding | 101.4M |
| Implied Share Price | $19 |
| Current Share Price | $7 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | +165.9% |
Valuation Summary
$19.38
Implied Price
$7.29
Current Price
+165.9%
Upside/Downside
11.0%
WACC
TH Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 9 peer companies in Industrials
P/E Ratio
$8.69
+19.2%
Peer Median: 12.2x
EV/EBITDA
$22.19
+204.4%
Peer Median: 12.8x
P/S Ratio
$3.46
-52.5%
Peer Median: 0.9x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for TH's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | TH Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 10.2x | 12.2x | 16.1x | -16.1% | Fair Value |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.3x | 12.8x | 11.8x | -66.3% | Undervalued |
| P/S Ratio | 1.9x | 0.9x | 1.6x | 110.5% | Overvalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $3.27B | 8.7x | 10.1x | 0.8x | |
| $3.07B | 0.0x | 17.9x | 1.3x | |
| $2.28B | 12.2x | 10.4x | 0.5x | |
| $1.23B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 1.0x | |
| $0.99B | 0.0x | 13.1x | 0.3x | |
| $0.72B | 10.2x | 4.3x | 1.9x | |
| $0.60B | 0.0x | 12.8x | 0.9x | |
| $0.05B | 0.0x | 5.3x | 0.2x | |
| $178.35B | 33.3x | 20.2x | 7.4x |
TH Graham Number
Benjamin Graham's conservative valuation formula for defensive investors
Input Data
| EPS (TTM) | $0.71 | Latest 10-K |
| Book Value per Share | $4.15 | Latest 10-K Balance Sheet |
| Graham Constant | 22.5 | Benjamin Graham's formula |
Graham Number Result
$8.15
Intrinsic Value
$7.29
Current Price
+11.9%
Upside/Downside
Confidence: High
Conservative value investing approach
Calculation Breakdown
Formula:
√(22.5 × EPS × BVPS)
Step 1: Multiply constant by EPS
22.5 × 0.71 = 16.01
Step 2: Multiply by Book Value per Share
16.01 × 4.15 = 66.46
Step 3: Take square root
√66.46 = 8.15
Graham Number Result:
$8.15
TH Graham Intrinsic Value
Growth-adjusted intrinsic value with two formula variants
Formula Selection
V = EPS × (8.5 + 2g)
Graham's original P/E shortcut for growth, no interest-rate adjustment
V = [EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4] / Y
Graham's 1974 refinement: adds rate-environment sensitivity
Active Formula: Base-Growth
0.71 × (8.5 + 2 × 40.4%)
Input Data & Growth Assumptions
Current EPS (TTM)$0.71
Latest 10-K • 2024-12-31T00:00:00
Historical 5Y40.4%
Financial statements
Custom
%
Enter a positive growth rate estimate (0-50%)
Graham Intrinsic Value Result
$63.58
Intrinsic Value
$7.29
Current Price
+772.4%
Upside/Downside
Base Formula
Growth: 40.4%
TH Peter Lynch Fair Value
Growth-based valuation using PEG ratio analysis for growth stocks
Fair Value Calculation
EPS (TTM)$0.71
Latest 10-K • 2024-12-31T00:00:00
Historical 5Y40.4%
5-year earnings growth
40.4%
1%50%
Fair Value Formula: EPS × Growth Rate
$0.71 × 40.4% = $28.77
$28.77
Fair Value
$7.29
Current Price
+294.7%
Upside/Downside
PEG Analysis
10.2x
Current P/E
40.4%
Growth Rate
0.25
PEG Ratio (P/E ÷ Growth Rate)
Significantly Undervalued
PEG Ratio Interpretation:
• PEG < 1.0: Undervalued (growth exceeds P/E)
• PEG = 1.0: Fairly valued (ideal Lynch ratio)
• PEG > 1.5: Overvalued (paying premium for growth)
Peter Lynch's Rule:
"The P/E ratio of any company that's fairly priced will equal its growth rate." A stock with 15% growth should trade at a P/E of 15 (PEG = 1.0).
TH Earnings Power Value (EPV)
Normalized earnings-based valuation for sustainable earning power assessment
Earnings Normalization
| Earnings Component | Amount ($B) | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Reported Earnings | 0.1 | Base earnings from financial statements |
| Normalized Earnings | 0.1 | Final normalized earning power |
One-time Items: Remove non-recurring gains/losses
Cyclical Adjustment: Normalize for economic cycle position
EPV Result
$8.83
EPV per Share
$7.29
Current Price
+21.2%
Upside/Downside
8.0%
WACC: 8.0% (calculated from market data)
Confidence: High
Normalized earnings approach
EPV Calculation Breakdown
Enterprise Value Calculation
| Normalized Earnings | $0.1B |
| Cost of Capital | 8.0% |
| Enterprise Value | $0.9B |
Per Share Value
| Enterprise Value | $0.9B |
| Shares Outstanding | 0.1B |
| EPV per Share | $8.83 |
WACC Components
| Cost of Equity | 9.2% |
| After-Tax Cost of Debt | 3.5% |
| Equity Weight | 77.9% |
| Debt Weight | 22.1% |
| WACC | 8.0% |