Complete GBTG Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 1 different methodologies
GBTG DCF Analysis
GBTG (Global Business Travel Group, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.9B | $2.3B | $2.4B | $3.0B | $3.8B | $4.7B | $5.9B | $7.4B |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 23.7% | 5.8% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 24.7% |
| EBIT | $-201.0M | $-8.0M | $115.0M | $151.4M | $189.3M | $236.6M | $295.8M | $368.7M |
| EBIT Margin % | -10.9% | -0.3% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| NOPAT | $-150.8M | $-6.0M | $86.3M | $113.6M | $142.0M | $177.5M | $221.8M | $276.5M |
| NOPAT Margin % | -8.1% | -0.3% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% |
| Capex | $94.0M | $113.0M | $107.0M | $158.2M | $187.9M | $223.1M | $265.0M | $313.8M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 5.1% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.3% |
| Depreciation | $182.0M | $194.0M | $178.0M | $259.0M | $323.7M | $404.6M | $505.8M | $630.5M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 9.8% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 8.6% |
| Change in NWC | $130.0M | $68.0M | $-28.0M | $78.9M | $78.9M | $78.9M | $78.9M | $78.7M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | 7.0% | 3.0% | -1.2% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.1% |
| Unlevered FCF | $-192.8M | $7.0M | $185.3M | $135.4M | $198.8M | $280.0M | $383.7M | $514.5M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | 103.6% | 2546.4% | -26.9% | 46.9% | 40.8% | 37.0% | 34.1% |
| FCF / Revenue % | -10.4% | 0.3% | 7.6% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.0% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.937 | 0.878 | 0.823 | 0.771 | 0.723 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $126.9M | $174.6M | $230.4M | $295.9M | $371.8M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $126.9M | $301.5M | $531.9M | $827.8M | $1.2B |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 5.9% |
| Tax Rate | 25.0% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 4.4% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.43% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 0.78 |
| Cost of Equity | 7.8% |
| Total Debt | $1.5B |
| Market Cap | $3.0B |
| Total Capital | $4.5B |
| Debt Weighting | 32.8% |
| Equity Weighting | 67.2% |
| WACC | 6.7% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $514.5M |
| Terminal Value | $12.5B |
| PV of Terminal Value | $9.0B |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $1.2B |
| Net Debt | $926.0M |
| Equity Value | $9.3B |
| Shares Outstanding | 462.7M |
| Implied Share Price | $20 |
| Current Share Price | $6 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | +221.3% |
Valuation Summary
$20.14
Implied Price
$6.27
Current Price
+221.3%
Upside/Downside
6.7%
WACC