Complete ISPO Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
ISPO DCF Analysis
ISPO (Inspirato Incorporated) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $345.5M | $329.1M | $279.9M | $297.2M | $313.8M | $329.6M | $344.5M | $358.5M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | -4.8% | -15.0% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.1% |
| EBIT | $-47.1M | $-62.0M | $-4.0M | $14.9M | $15.7M | $16.5M | $17.2M | $17.9M |
| EBIT Margin % | -13.6% | -18.8% | -1.4% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| NOPAT | $-35.3M | $-46.5M | $-3.0M | $11.1M | $11.8M | $12.4M | $12.9M | $13.4M |
| NOPAT Margin % | -10.2% | -14.1% | -1.1% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% |
| Capex | $14.3M | $12.1M | $5.5M | $8.2M | $8.2M | $8.2M | $8.2M | $8.1M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 4.1% | 3.7% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.3% |
| Depreciation | $93.5M | $98.2M | $66.6M | $80.0M | $84.4M | $88.7M | $92.7M | $96.5M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 27.1% | 29.8% | 23.8% | 26.9% | 26.9% | 26.9% | 26.9% | 26.9% |
| Change in NWC | $-46.3M | $-9.1M | $16.9M | $3.2M | $2.7M | $2.3M | $1.9M | $1.6M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | -13.4% | -2.8% | 6.0% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.4% |
| Unlevered FCF | $90.3M | $48.7M | $41.3M | $79.7M | $85.2M | $90.5M | $95.5M | $100.2M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | -46.1% | -15.1% | 92.9% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 4.9% |
| FCF / Revenue % | 26.1% | 14.8% | 14.8% | 26.8% | 27.2% | 27.5% | 27.7% | 28.0% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.949 | 0.900 | 0.854 | 0.810 | 0.768 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $75.6M | $76.7M | $77.3M | $77.4M | $77.0M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $75.6M | $152.3M | $229.6M | $306.9M | $383.9M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 7.5% |
| Tax Rate | 25.0% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.6% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.46% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 0.04 |
| Cost of Equity | 4.6% |
| Total Debt | $206.1M |
| Market Cap | $50.1M |
| Total Capital | $256.1M |
| Debt Weighting | 80.5% |
| Equity Weighting | 19.5% |
| WACC | 5.4% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $100.2M |
| Terminal Value | $3.5B |
| PV of Terminal Value | $2.7B |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $383.9M |
| Net Debt | $184.2M |
| Equity Value | $2.9B |
| Shares Outstanding | 5.9M |
| Implied Share Price | $492 |
| Current Share Price | $4 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | +12114.6% |
Valuation Summary
$491.64
Implied Price
$4.03
Current Price
+12114.6%
Upside/Downside
5.4%
WACC
ISPO Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 6 peer companies in Consumer Cyclical
P/E Ratio
$-28.34
-804.1%
Peer Median: 33.3x
EV/EBITDA
$45.30
+1025.5%
Peer Median: 12.8x
P/S Ratio
$19.01
+372.2%
Peer Median: 0.9x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for ISPO's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | ISPO Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -4.7x | 33.3x | 21.8x | -114.2% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.3x | 12.8x | 11.1x | -58.4% | Undervalued |
| P/S Ratio | 0.2x | 0.9x | 1.8x | -78.8% | Undervalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0.99B | 0.0x | 13.1x | 0.3x | |
| $0.72B | 10.2x | 4.3x | 1.9x | |
| $0.60B | 0.0x | 12.8x | 0.9x | |
| $0.05B | 0.0x | 5.3x | 0.2x | |
| $0.02B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.0x | |
| $178.35B | 33.3x | 20.2x | 7.4x |