Complete SABR Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
SABR DCF Analysis
SABR (Sabre Corporation) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.5B | $2.9B | $3.0B | $3.6B | $4.2B | $4.8B | $5.5B | $6.2B |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 14.6% | 4.2% | 18.8% | 16.9% | 15.2% | 13.7% | 12.3% |
| EBIT | $-123.7M | $47.1M | $286.2M | $179.9M | $210.3M | $242.2M | $275.4M | $309.3M |
| EBIT Margin % | -4.9% | 1.6% | 9.4% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| NOPAT | $-92.8M | $35.4M | $214.6M | $134.9M | $157.7M | $181.7M | $206.5M | $232.0M |
| NOPAT Margin % | -3.7% | 1.2% | 7.1% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% |
| Capex | $69.5M | $87.4M | $84.1M | $119.8M | $133.0M | $145.5M | $157.2M | $167.7M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 2.7% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 2.7% |
| Depreciation | $184.6M | $148.7M | $129.5M | $199.9M | $233.6M | $269.1M | $305.9M | $343.6M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 7.3% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.6% |
| Change in NWC | $-139.9M | $-302.0M | $-222.4M | $-154.2M | $-144.2M | $-132.9M | $-120.8M | $-108.6M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | -5.5% | -10.4% | -7.3% | -4.3% | -3.4% | -2.7% | -2.2% | -1.8% |
| Unlevered FCF | $162.2M | $398.7M | $482.4M | $369.2M | $402.5M | $438.1M | $476.1M | $516.4M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | 145.8% | 21.0% | -23.5% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 8.5% |
| FCF / Revenue % | 6.4% | 13.7% | 15.9% | 10.3% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 8.3% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.940 | 0.884 | 0.832 | 0.782 | 0.735 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $347.2M | $356.0M | $364.4M | $372.4M | $379.8M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $347.2M | $703.2M | $1.1B | $1.4B | $1.8B |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 7.4% |
| Tax Rate | 25.0% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.6% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.43% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 1.36 |
| Cost of Equity | 10.3% |
| Total Debt | $5.1B |
| Market Cap | $981.2M |
| Total Capital | $6.1B |
| Debt Weighting | 83.9% |
| Equity Weighting | 16.1% |
| WACC | 6.3% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $516.4M |
| Terminal Value | $13.8B |
| PV of Terminal Value | $10.1B |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $1.8B |
| Net Debt | $4.4B |
| Equity Value | $7.6B |
| Shares Outstanding | 383.7M |
| Implied Share Price | $20 |
| Current Share Price | $3 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | +679.9% |
Valuation Summary
$19.73
Implied Price
$2.53
Current Price
+679.9%
Upside/Downside
6.3%
WACC
SABR Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 9 peer companies in Consumer Cyclical
P/E Ratio
$-4.62
-282.8%
Peer Median: 12.2x
EV/EBITDA
$13.67
+440.3%
Peer Median: 12.9x
P/S Ratio
$6.73
+166.1%
Peer Median: 0.9x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for SABR's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | SABR Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -6.7x | 12.2x | 17.6x | -154.7% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.1x | 12.9x | 12.7x | 1.4% | Fair Value |
| P/S Ratio | 0.3x | 0.9x | 1.6x | -62.4% | Undervalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $3.52B | 23.1x | 12.9x | 0.7x | |
| $3.24B | 8.6x | 10.0x | 0.8x | |
| $3.00B | 0.0x | 17.6x | 1.2x | |
| $2.29B | 12.2x | 10.4x | 0.5x | |
| $1.23B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 1.0x | |
| $0.98B | 0.0x | 13.1x | 0.3x | |
| $0.73B | 10.4x | 4.4x | 1.9x | |
| $0.58B | 0.0x | 12.5x | 0.9x | |
| $179.51B | 33.6x | 20.3x | 7.5x |