Complete LIND Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
LIND DCF Analysis
LIND (Lindblad Expeditions Holdings, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $421.5M | $569.5M | $644.7M | $805.9M | $1.0B | $1.3B | $1.6B | $2.0B |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 35.1% | 13.2% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| EBIT | $-63.0M | $10.6M | $21.6M | $40.3M | $50.4M | $63.0M | $78.7M | $98.4M |
| EBIT Margin % | -15.0% | 1.9% | 3.3% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| NOPAT | $-47.3M | $7.9M | $16.2M | $30.2M | $37.8M | $47.2M | $59.0M | $73.8M |
| NOPAT Margin % | -11.2% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% |
| Capex | $38.2M | $30.0M | $33.5M | $52.4M | $62.3M | $74.0M | $87.8M | $104.3M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 9.1% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.3% |
| Depreciation | $44.0M | $47.5M | $53.5M | $72.8M | $90.9M | $113.7M | $142.1M | $177.6M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 10.4% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% |
| Change in NWC | $-78.7M | $83.1M | $-39.3M | $-24.6M | $-24.6M | $-24.6M | $-24.6M | $-24.6M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | -18.7% | 14.6% | -6.1% | -3.0% | -2.4% | -2.0% | -1.6% | -1.2% |
| Unlevered FCF | $37.2M | $-57.6M | $75.4M | $75.1M | $91.0M | $111.5M | $137.9M | $171.7M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | -254.6% | 231.0% | -0.4% | 21.2% | 22.5% | 23.6% | 24.5% |
| FCF / Revenue % | 8.8% | -10.1% | 11.7% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 8.7% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.905 | 0.818 | 0.740 | 0.670 | 0.606 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $67.9M | $74.5M | $82.5M | $92.3M | $104.0M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $67.9M | $142.4M | $224.9M | $317.3M | $421.2M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 7.4% |
| Tax Rate | 25.0% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.6% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.43% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 2.66 |
| Cost of Equity | 15.9% |
| Total Debt | $627.3M |
| Market Cap | $579.4M |
| Total Capital | $1.2B |
| Debt Weighting | 52.0% |
| Equity Weighting | 48.0% |
| WACC | 10.5% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $171.7M |
| Terminal Value | $2.2B |
| PV of Terminal Value | $1.3B |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $421.2M |
| Net Debt | $443.4M |
| Equity Value | $1.3B |
| Shares Outstanding | 53.8M |
| Implied Share Price | $24 |
| Current Share Price | $11 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | +128.6% |
Valuation Summary
$24.21
Implied Price
$10.59
Current Price
+128.6%
Upside/Downside
10.5%
WACC
LIND Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 8 peer companies in Consumer Cyclical
P/E Ratio
$-5.84
-155.1%
Peer Median: 12.2x
EV/EBITDA
$18.69
+76.5%
Peer Median: 12.5x
P/S Ratio
$12.32
+16.3%
Peer Median: 1.0x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for LIND's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | LIND Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -22.2x | 12.2x | 18.7x | -281.4% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.5x | 12.5x | 11.9x | 0.0% | Fair Value |
| P/S Ratio | 0.9x | 1.0x | 1.7x | -14.0% | Fair Value |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $3.00B | 0.0x | 17.6x | 1.2x | |
| $2.29B | 12.2x | 10.4x | 0.5x | |
| $1.23B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 1.0x | |
| $0.98B | 0.0x | 13.1x | 0.3x | |
| $0.73B | 10.4x | 4.4x | 1.9x | |
| $0.58B | 0.0x | 12.5x | 0.9x | |
| $0.04B | 0.0x | 5.2x | 0.2x | |
| $179.51B | 33.6x | 20.3x | 7.5x |