Complete LGND Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
LGND DCF Analysis
LGND (Ligand Pharmaceuticals Incorporated) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $196.2M | $131.3M | $167.1M | $167.2M | $167.2M | $167.2M | $167.2M | $167.2M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | -33.1% | 27.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| EBIT | $-25.5M | $11.9M | $-22.6M | $8.4M | $8.4M | $8.4M | $8.4M | $8.4M |
| EBIT Margin % | -13.0% | 9.1% | -13.5% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 50.0% | 15.5% | 50.0% | 28.1% | 27.8% | 27.5% | 27.2% | 26.9% |
| NOPAT | $-12.8M | $10.1M | $-11.3M | $6.0M | $6.0M | $6.1M | $6.1M | $6.1M |
| NOPAT Margin % | -6.5% | 7.7% | -6.8% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.7% |
| Capex | $17.9M | $3.5M | $1.8M | $6.2M | $5.9M | $5.6M | $5.3M | $5.0M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 9.1% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.0% |
| Depreciation | $51.4M | $35.6M | $33.9M | $41.0M | $41.0M | $41.0M | $41.0M | $41.0M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 26.2% | 27.1% | 20.3% | 24.5% | 24.5% | 24.5% | 24.5% | 24.5% |
| Change in NWC | $-258.3M | $55.9M | $73.8M | $6.8M | $5.5M | $4.4M | $3.5M | $2.8M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | -131.6% | 42.5% | 44.2% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 1.7% |
| Unlevered FCF | $279.0M | $-13.6M | $-53.0M | $34.0M | $35.7M | $37.1M | $38.3M | $39.3M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | -104.9% | -288.7% | 164.2% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 2.6% |
| FCF / Revenue % | 142.2% | -10.4% | -31.7% | 20.4% | 21.4% | 22.2% | 22.9% | 23.5% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.931 | 0.868 | 0.808 | 0.753 | 0.701 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $31.7M | $31.0M | $30.0M | $28.9M | $27.6M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $31.7M | $62.7M | $92.7M | $121.6M | $149.2M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 5.8% |
| Tax Rate | 28.1% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 4.2% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.29% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 0.71 |
| Cost of Equity | 7.4% |
| Total Debt | $7.1M |
| Market Cap | $2.2B |
| Total Capital | $2.2B |
| Debt Weighting | 0.3% |
| Equity Weighting | 99.7% |
| WACC | 7.4% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $39.3M |
| Terminal Value | $830.3M |
| PV of Terminal Value | $582.3M |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $149.2M |
| Net Debt | $-65.2M |
| Equity Value | $796.7M |
| Shares Outstanding | 18.3M |
| Implied Share Price | $44 |
| Current Share Price | $114 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | -61.9% |
Valuation Summary
$43.56
Implied Price
$114.35
Current Price
-61.9%
Upside/Downside
7.4%
WACC
LGND Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 7 peer companies in Healthcare
P/E Ratio
$-181.19
-258.5%
Peer Median: 26.2x
EV/EBITDA
$3.20
-97.2%
Peer Median: 10.3x
P/S Ratio
$24.73
-78.4%
Peer Median: 2.6x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for LGND's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | LGND Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -16.5x | 26.2x | 27.0x | -163.1% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | 357.0x | 10.3x | 16.5x | 3363.1% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 12.2x | 2.6x | 5.9x | 362.3% | Overvalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $2.62B | 3.5x | 7.2x | 0.4x | |
| $3.77B | 0.0x | 11.1x | 1.3x | |
| $2.21B | 26.2x | 316.1x | 12.2x | |
| $1.83B | 12.2x | 7.0x | 2.5x | |
| $1.76B | 28.3x | 10.3x | 2.6x | |
| $1.69B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 7.2x | |
| $753.72B | 64.5x | 47.0x | 15.4x |