Complete HRMY Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 6 different methodologies
HRMY DCF Analysis
HRMY (Harmony Biosciences Holdings, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $437.9M | $582.0M | $714.7M | $893.4M | $1.1B | $1.4B | $1.7B | $2.2B |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 32.9% | 22.8% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 24.1% |
| EBIT | $120.2M | $192.0M | $190.8M | $259.5M | $325.5M | $408.3M | $512.1M | $637.9M |
| EBIT Margin % | 27.4% | 33.0% | 26.7% | 29.0% | 29.1% | 29.2% | 29.3% | 29.4% |
| Tax Rate % | 0.0% | 25.7% | 24.1% | 16.5% | 17.3% | 18.2% | 19.0% | 19.9% |
| NOPAT | $120.2M | $142.7M | $144.8M | $216.7M | $269.1M | $334.0M | $414.6M | $511.0M |
| NOPAT Margin % | 27.4% | 24.5% | 20.3% | 24.3% | 24.1% | 23.9% | 23.8% | 23.6% |
| Capex | $40.2M | $312.0K | $1.2M | $23.8M | $28.2M | $33.5M | $39.8M | $46.9M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 9.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.2% |
| Depreciation | $23.4M | $24.4M | $24.1M | $38.4M | $48.0M | $60.0M | $75.0M | $93.1M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 5.3% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.3% |
| Change in NWC | $90.7M | $-34.1M | $116.9M | $-26.2M | $-26.2M | $-26.2M | $-26.2M | $-26.0M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | 20.7% | -5.9% | 16.4% | -2.9% | -2.3% | -1.9% | -1.5% | -1.2% |
| Unlevered FCF | $12.7M | $200.9M | $50.8M | $257.6M | $315.1M | $386.7M | $476.0M | $583.2M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | 1486.3% | -74.7% | 406.7% | 22.3% | 22.7% | 23.1% | 22.5% |
| FCF / Revenue % | 2.9% | 34.5% | 7.1% | 28.8% | 28.2% | 27.7% | 27.3% | 26.9% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.927 | 0.859 | 0.796 | 0.738 | 0.684 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $238.7M | $270.6M | $307.8M | $351.2M | $398.7M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $238.7M | $509.3M | $817.1M | $1.2B | $1.6B |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 5.9% |
| Tax Rate | 16.5% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 4.9% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.40% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 0.87 |
| Cost of Equity | 8.2% |
| Total Debt | $179.3M |
| Market Cap | $2.0B |
| Total Capital | $2.2B |
| Debt Weighting | 8.1% |
| Equity Weighting | 91.9% |
| WACC | 7.9% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $583.2M |
| Terminal Value | $11.1B |
| PV of Terminal Value | $7.6B |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $1.6B |
| Net Debt | $-273.7M |
| Equity Value | $9.4B |
| Shares Outstanding | 57.9M |
| Implied Share Price | $163 |
| Current Share Price | $36 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | +356.6% |
Valuation Summary
$162.55
Implied Price
$35.60
Current Price
+356.6%
Upside/Downside
7.9%
WACC
HRMY Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 6 peer companies in Healthcare
P/E Ratio
$76.79
+115.7%
Peer Median: 29.4x
EV/EBITDA
$41.56
+16.7%
Peer Median: 10.7x
P/S Ratio
$102.13
+186.9%
Peer Median: 7.9x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for HRMY's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | HRMY Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 13.6x | 29.4x | 32.9x | -53.6% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.0x | 10.7x | 18.7x | -25.8% | Undervalued |
| P/S Ratio | 2.7x | 7.9x | 6.8x | -65.1% | Undervalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $3.50B | 0.0x | 10.6x | 1.2x | |
| $2.05B | 26.2x | 316.1x | 11.3x | |
| $2.04B | 13.6x | 8.0x | 2.7x | |
| $1.83B | 29.4x | 10.7x | 2.7x | |
| $1.84B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 7.9x | |
| $729.91B | 62.5x | 45.6x | 14.9x |
HRMY Graham Number
Benjamin Graham's conservative valuation formula for defensive investors
Input Data
| EPS (TTM) | $2.61 | Latest 10-K |
| Book Value per Share | $11.39 | Latest 10-K Balance Sheet |
| Graham Constant | 22.5 | Benjamin Graham's formula |
Graham Number Result
$25.86
Intrinsic Value
$35.60
Current Price
-27.4%
Upside/Downside
Confidence: High
Conservative value investing approach
Calculation Breakdown
Formula:
√(22.5 × EPS × BVPS)
Step 1: Multiply constant by EPS
22.5 × 2.61 = 58.71
Step 2: Multiply by Book Value per Share
58.71 × 11.39 = 668.76
Step 3: Take square root
√668.76 = 25.86
Graham Number Result:
$25.86
HRMY Graham Intrinsic Value
Growth-adjusted intrinsic value with two formula variants
Formula Selection
V = EPS × (8.5 + 2g)
Graham's original P/E shortcut for growth, no interest-rate adjustment
V = [EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4] / Y
Graham's 1974 refinement: adds rate-environment sensitivity
Active Formula: Base-Growth
2.61 × (8.5 + 2 × 62.2%)
Input Data & Growth Assumptions
Current EPS (TTM)$2.61
Latest 10-K • 2024-12-31T00:00:00
Historical 3Y62.2%
Financial statements
Custom
%
Enter a positive growth rate estimate (0-50%)
Graham Intrinsic Value Result
$346.76
Intrinsic Value
$35.60
Current Price
+874.0%
Upside/Downside
Base Formula
Growth: 62.2%
HRMY Peter Lynch Fair Value
Growth-based valuation using PEG ratio analysis for growth stocks
Fair Value Calculation
EPS (TTM)$2.61
Latest 10-K • 2024-12-31T00:00:00
Historical 3Y62.2%
3-year earnings growth
62.2%
1%50%
Fair Value Formula: EPS × Growth Rate
$2.61 × 62.2% = $162.29
$162.29
Fair Value
$35.60
Current Price
+355.9%
Upside/Downside
PEG Analysis
13.6x
Current P/E
62.2%
Growth Rate
0.22
PEG Ratio (P/E ÷ Growth Rate)
Significantly Undervalued
PEG Ratio Interpretation:
• PEG < 1.0: Undervalued (growth exceeds P/E)
• PEG = 1.0: Fairly valued (ideal Lynch ratio)
• PEG > 1.5: Overvalued (paying premium for growth)
Peter Lynch's Rule:
"The P/E ratio of any company that's fairly priced will equal its growth rate." A stock with 15% growth should trade at a P/E of 15 (PEG = 1.0).
HRMY Earnings Power Value (EPV)
Normalized earnings-based valuation for sustainable earning power assessment
Earnings Normalization
| Earnings Component | Amount ($B) | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Reported Earnings | 0.1 | Base earnings from financial statements |
| Normalized Earnings | 0.1 | Final normalized earning power |
One-time Items: Remove non-recurring gains/losses
Cyclical Adjustment: Normalize for economic cycle position
EPV Result
$28.87
EPV per Share
$35.60
Current Price
-18.9%
Upside/Downside
8.7%
WACC: 8.7% (calculated from market data)
Confidence: High
Normalized earnings approach
EPV Calculation Breakdown
Enterprise Value Calculation
| Normalized Earnings | $0.1B |
| Cost of Capital | 8.7% |
| Enterprise Value | $1.7B |
Per Share Value
| Enterprise Value | $1.7B |
| Shares Outstanding | 0.1B |
| EPV per Share | $28.87 |
WACC Components
| Cost of Equity | 9.2% |
| After-Tax Cost of Debt | 3.5% |
| Equity Weight | 92.0% |
| Debt Weight | 8.0% |
| WACC | 8.7% |