Complete HGV Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 4 different methodologies
HGV DCF Analysis
HGV (Hilton Grand Vacations Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $3.8B | $4.0B | $5.0B | $6.2B | $7.8B | $9.7B | $12.2B | $15.2B |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 3.7% | 25.2% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| EBIT | $707.0M | $684.0M | $697.0M | $1.0B | $1.3B | $1.6B | $2.0B | $2.6B |
| EBIT Margin % | 18.4% | 17.2% | 14.0% | 16.5% | 16.6% | 16.7% | 16.8% | 16.9% |
| Tax Rate % | 26.8% | 30.3% | 50.0% | 33.3% | 32.5% | 31.7% | 30.8% | 30.0% |
| NOPAT | $517.4M | $476.8M | $348.5M | $686.6M | $874.2M | $1.1B | $1.4B | $1.8B |
| NOPAT Margin % | 13.5% | 12.0% | 7.0% | 11.0% | 11.2% | 11.4% | 11.6% | 11.9% |
| Capex | $97.0M | $75.0M | $0 | $119.0M | $141.3M | $167.7M | $199.2M | $236.5M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 2.5% | 1.9% | 0.0% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.6% |
| Depreciation | $244.0M | $213.0M | $268.0M | $354.8M | $443.6M | $554.4M | $693.0M | $866.3M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 6.4% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.7% |
| Change in NWC | $-208.0M | $1.1B | $1.3B | $-168.8M | $-168.8M | $-168.8M | $-168.8M | $-168.8M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | -5.4% | 27.1% | 25.3% | -2.7% | -2.2% | -1.7% | -1.4% | -1.1% |
| Unlevered FCF | $872.4M | $-463.2M | $-641.5M | $1.1B | $1.3B | $1.7B | $2.1B | $2.6B |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | -153.1% | -38.5% | 270.1% | 23.3% | 24.0% | 24.6% | 25.1% |
| FCF / Revenue % | 22.7% | -11.6% | -12.9% | 17.5% | 17.3% | 17.1% | 17.1% | 17.1% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.937 | 0.878 | 0.823 | 0.771 | 0.723 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $1.0B | $1.2B | $1.4B | $1.6B | $1.9B |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $1.0B | $2.2B | $3.6B | $5.2B | $7.1B |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 6.5% |
| Tax Rate | 33.3% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 4.3% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.46% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 1.61 |
| Cost of Equity | 11.4% |
| Total Debt | $7.0B |
| Market Cap | $3.6B |
| Total Capital | $10.6B |
| Debt Weighting | 66.4% |
| Equity Weighting | 33.6% |
| WACC | 6.7% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $2.6B |
| Terminal Value | $63.4B |
| PV of Terminal Value | $45.9B |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $7.1B |
| Net Debt | $6.7B |
| Equity Value | $46.2B |
| Shares Outstanding | 103.1M |
| Implied Share Price | $448 |
| Current Share Price | $39 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | +1054.8% |
Valuation Summary
$448.35
Implied Price
$38.83
Current Price
+1054.8%
Upside/Downside
6.7%
WACC
HGV Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 11 peer companies in Consumer Cyclical
P/E Ratio
$32.00
-17.6%
Peer Median: 19.2x
EV/EBITDA
$122.53
+215.6%
Peer Median: 14.2x
P/S Ratio
$68.45
+76.3%
Peer Median: 1.3x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for HGV's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | HGV Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 23.3x | 19.2x | 17.8x | 21.3% | Overvalued |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.0x | 14.2x | 14.9x | -8.7% | Fair Value |
| P/S Ratio | 0.7x | 1.3x | 2.4x | -43.3% | Undervalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $20.56B | 131.5x | 24.4x | 3.9x | |
| $12.73B | 16.5x | 14.2x | 1.9x | |
| $8.16B | 9.5x | 10.7x | 0.9x | |
| $6.43B | 19.7x | 14.2x | 4.5x | |
| $5.93B | 19.2x | 14.2x | 3.7x | |
| $3.56B | 23.3x | 13.0x | 0.7x | |
| $3.27B | 8.7x | 10.1x | 0.8x | |
| $3.07B | 0.0x | 17.9x | 1.3x | |
| $2.28B | 12.2x | 10.4x | 0.5x | |
| $1.23B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 1.0x | |
| $178.35B | 33.3x | 20.2x | 7.4x |
HGV Graham Number
Benjamin Graham's conservative valuation formula for defensive investors
Input Data
| EPS (TTM) | $1.66 | Latest 10-K |
| Book Value per Share | $16.99 | Latest 10-K Balance Sheet |
| Graham Constant | 22.5 | Benjamin Graham's formula |
Graham Number Result
$25.23
Intrinsic Value
$38.83
Current Price
-35.0%
Upside/Downside
Confidence: High
Conservative value investing approach
Calculation Breakdown
Formula:
√(22.5 × EPS × BVPS)
Step 1: Multiply constant by EPS
22.5 × 1.66 = 37.46
Step 2: Multiply by Book Value per Share
37.46 × 16.99 = 636.58
Step 3: Take square root
√636.58 = 25.23
Graham Number Result:
$25.23
HGV Earnings Power Value (EPV)
Normalized earnings-based valuation for sustainable earning power assessment
Earnings Normalization
| Earnings Component | Amount ($B) | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Reported Earnings | 0.0 | Base earnings from financial statements |
| Normalized Earnings | 0.0 | Final normalized earning power |
One-time Items: Remove non-recurring gains/losses
Cyclical Adjustment: Normalize for economic cycle position
EPV Result
$8.18
EPV per Share
$38.83
Current Price
-78.9%
Upside/Downside
5.6%
WACC: 5.6% (calculated from market data)
Confidence: High
Normalized earnings approach
EPV Calculation Breakdown
Enterprise Value Calculation
| Normalized Earnings | $0.0B |
| Cost of Capital | 5.6% |
| Enterprise Value | $0.8B |
Per Share Value
| Enterprise Value | $0.8B |
| Shares Outstanding | 0.1B |
| EPV per Share | $8.18 |
WACC Components
| Cost of Equity | 9.2% |
| After-Tax Cost of Debt | 3.5% |
| Equity Weight | 36.3% |
| Debt Weight | 63.7% |
| WACC | 5.6% |