Complete OCUL Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
OCUL DCF Analysis
OCUL (Ocular Therapeutix, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $51.5M | $58.4M | $63.7M | $79.7M | $98.5M | $119.5M | $142.5M | $167.1M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 13.5% | 9.0% | 25.0% | 23.7% | 21.3% | 19.2% | 17.3% |
| EBIT | $-78.7M | $-82.4M | $-171.8M | $4.0M | $4.9M | $6.0M | $7.1M | $8.4M |
| EBIT Margin % | -152.7% | -141.0% | -269.6% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| NOPAT | $-59.0M | $-61.8M | $-128.8M | $3.0M | $3.7M | $4.5M | $5.3M | $6.3M |
| NOPAT Margin % | -114.6% | -105.7% | -202.2% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% |
| Capex | $3.7M | $6.1M | $1.3M | $4.3M | $5.1M | $5.9M | $6.7M | $7.4M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 7.2% | 10.4% | 2.0% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 4.4% |
| Depreciation | $2.1M | $3.0M | $3.8M | $4.0M | $5.0M | $6.0M | $7.2M | $8.4M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 4.1% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Change in NWC | $-66.7M | $99.1M | $202.3M | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | -129.6% | 169.6% | 317.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Unlevered FCF | $6.1M | $-164.0M | $-328.6M | $2.7M | $3.6M | $4.6M | $5.9M | $7.3M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | -2773.4% | -100.4% | 100.8% | 33.7% | 30.0% | 26.7% | 23.9% |
| FCF / Revenue % | 11.9% | -280.6% | -515.7% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.4% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.907 | 0.823 | 0.747 | 0.678 | 0.615 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $2.4M | $2.9M | $3.5M | $4.0M | $4.5M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $2.4M | $5.4M | $8.8M | $12.8M | $17.3M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 6.9% |
| Tax Rate | 25.0% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.2% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.40% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 1.41 |
| Cost of Equity | 10.5% |
| Total Debt | $75.8M |
| Market Cap | $1.4B |
| Total Capital | $1.5B |
| Debt Weighting | 5.1% |
| Equity Weighting | 94.9% |
| WACC | 10.2% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $7.3M |
| Terminal Value | $96.8M |
| PV of Terminal Value | $59.5M |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $17.3M |
| Net Debt | $-316.3M |
| Equity Value | $393.1M |
| Shares Outstanding | 158.3M |
| Implied Share Price | $2 |
| Current Share Price | $9 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | -72.2% |
Valuation Summary
$2.48
Implied Price
$8.92
Current Price
-72.2%
Upside/Downside
10.2%
WACC
OCUL Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 8 peer companies in Healthcare
P/E Ratio
$-35.03
-492.7%
Peer Median: 30.8x
EV/EBITDA
$0.00
-100.0%
Peer Median: 28.9x
P/S Ratio
$0.74
-91.7%
Peer Median: 2.0x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for OCUL's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | OCUL Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -7.8x | 30.8x | 40.5x | -125.5% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | Infinityx | 28.9x | 23.2x | Infinity% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 23.8x | 2.0x | 4.3x | 1107.7% | Overvalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $1.33B | 74.5x | 28.9x | 2.0x | |
| $1.22B | 9.1x | 7.1x | 1.7x | |
| $1.35B | 25.8x | 359.4x | 3.6x | |
| $1.20B | 1244.3x | 77.7x | 1.7x | |
| $1.42B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 23.8x | |
| $0.97B | 30.8x | 11.1x | 0.8x | |
| $1.08B | 0.0x | 67.8x | 5.1x | |
| $729.91B | 62.5x | 45.6x | 14.9x |