Complete VATE Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
VATE DCF Analysis
VATE (INNOVATE Corp.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.6B | $1.4B | $1.1B | $1.1B | $1.0B | $1.0B | $974.4M | $951.0M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | -13.1% | -22.2% | -3.7% | -3.3% | -3.0% | -2.7% | -2.4% |
| EBIT | $13.4M | $29.2M | $-9.0M | $53.3M | $51.6M | $50.1M | $48.7M | $47.6M |
| EBIT Margin % | 0.8% | 2.1% | -0.8% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| NOPAT | $10.1M | $21.9M | $-6.8M | $40.0M | $38.7M | $37.5M | $36.5M | $35.7M |
| NOPAT Margin % | 0.6% | 1.5% | -0.6% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% |
| Capex | $20.7M | $18.4M | $19.0M | $17.2M | $15.8M | $14.5M | $13.4M | $12.5M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.3% |
| Depreciation | $42.2M | $36.0M | $32.9M | $28.7M | $27.8M | $27.0M | $26.2M | $25.6M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.7% |
| Change in NWC | $116.1M | $-15.1M | $-196.2M | $21.4M | $16.6M | $12.9M | $10.0M | $7.8M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | 7.1% | -1.1% | -17.7% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.8% |
| Unlevered FCF | $-84.5M | $54.6M | $203.3M | $30.1M | $34.1M | $37.1M | $39.3M | $41.0M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | 164.6% | 272.4% | -85.2% | 13.2% | 8.7% | 6.0% | 4.3% |
| FCF / Revenue % | -5.2% | 3.8% | 18.4% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.3% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.942 | 0.887 | 0.836 | 0.787 | 0.742 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $28.4M | $30.3M | $31.0M | $31.0M | $30.4M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $28.4M | $58.6M | $89.6M | $120.6M | $151.0M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 7.4% |
| Tax Rate | 25.0% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.6% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.43% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 1.78 |
| Cost of Equity | 12.1% |
| Total Debt | $719.2M |
| Market Cap | $70.7M |
| Total Capital | $789.9M |
| Debt Weighting | 91.1% |
| Equity Weighting | 8.9% |
| WACC | 6.2% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $41.0M |
| Terminal Value | $1.1B |
| PV of Terminal Value | $851.2M |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $151.0M |
| Net Debt | $670.4M |
| Equity Value | $331.8M |
| Shares Outstanding | 60.0M |
| Implied Share Price | $6 |
| Current Share Price | $5 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | +4.0% |
Valuation Summary
$5.53
Implied Price
$5.32
Current Price
+4.0%
Upside/Downside
6.2%
WACC
VATE Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 7 peer companies in Industrials
P/E Ratio
$-200.12
-3861.7%
Peer Median: 62.9x
EV/EBITDA
$56.02
+953.0%
Peer Median: 10.0x
P/S Ratio
$40.33
+658.0%
Peer Median: 0.5x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for VATE's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | VATE Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -1.7x | 62.9x | 42.2x | -102.7% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.9x | 10.0x | 13.5x | -0.4% | Fair Value |
| P/S Ratio | 0.1x | 0.5x | 1.0x | -86.8% | Undervalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0.37B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.5x | |
| $0.34B | 111.0x | 10.0x | 0.4x | |
| $0.36B | 21.4x | 6.7x | 0.9x | |
| $0.07B | 0.0x | 9.9x | 0.1x | |
| $0.07B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.1x | |
| $0.07B | 1923.8x | 681.0x | 2.9x | |
| $57.51B | 62.9x | 27.3x | 2.3x |