Complete AMRX Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
AMRX DCF Analysis
AMRX (Amneal Pharmaceuticals, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.2B | $2.4B | $2.8B | $3.1B | $3.4B | $3.7B | $4.0B | $4.3B |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 8.2% | 16.7% | 10.8% | 9.7% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 7.1% |
| EBIT | $-94.9M | $204.4M | $249.3M | $154.8M | $169.8M | $184.6M | $199.2M | $213.3M |
| EBIT Margin % | -4.3% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 27.1% | 26.9% | 26.7% | 26.5% | 26.3% |
| NOPAT | $-71.2M | $153.3M | $187.0M | $112.8M | $124.1M | $135.3M | $146.4M | $157.2M |
| NOPAT Margin % | -3.2% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.7% |
| Capex | $90.6M | $69.2M | $51.9M | $90.9M | $94.7M | $97.8M | $100.3M | $102.0M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 4.1% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.4% |
| Depreciation | $240.2M | $229.4M | $236.2M | $298.1M | $327.1M | $355.7M | $383.6M | $410.8M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 10.9% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 9.6% |
| Change in NWC | $-183.8M | $-127.8M | $-73.2M | $-110.1M | $-96.6M | $-84.1M | $-72.5M | $-62.1M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | -8.3% | -5.3% | -2.6% | -3.6% | -2.8% | -2.3% | -1.8% | -1.5% |
| Unlevered FCF | $262.2M | $441.2M | $444.5M | $430.1M | $453.1M | $477.2M | $502.3M | $528.2M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | 68.3% | 0.7% | -3.2% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.1% |
| FCF / Revenue % | 11.9% | 18.4% | 15.9% | 13.9% | 13.3% | 12.9% | 12.6% | 12.4% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.935 | 0.874 | 0.817 | 0.763 | 0.714 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $402.1M | $395.9M | $389.8M | $383.5M | $376.9M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $402.1M | $798.0M | $1.2B | $1.6B | $1.9B |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 5.9% |
| Tax Rate | 27.1% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 4.3% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.40% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 1.05 |
| Cost of Equity | 9.0% |
| Total Debt | $2.6B |
| Market Cap | $3.5B |
| Total Capital | $6.1B |
| Debt Weighting | 42.6% |
| Equity Weighting | 57.4% |
| WACC | 7.0% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $528.2M |
| Terminal Value | $12.1B |
| PV of Terminal Value | $8.6B |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $1.9B |
| Net Debt | $2.5B |
| Equity Value | $8.1B |
| Shares Outstanding | 309.0M |
| Implied Share Price | $26 |
| Current Share Price | $8 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | +248.8% |
Valuation Summary
$26.19
Implied Price
$7.51
Current Price
+248.8%
Upside/Downside
7.0%
WACC
AMRX Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 8 peer companies in Healthcare
P/E Ratio
$-0.80
-110.6%
Peer Median: 19.8x
EV/EBITDA
$12.84
+71.0%
Peer Median: 10.6x
P/S Ratio
$22.43
+198.8%
Peer Median: 3.7x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for AMRX's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | AMRX Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -186.4x | 19.8x | 25.1x | -1040.3% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.6x | 10.6x | 15.6x | 0.0% | Fair Value |
| P/S Ratio | 1.2x | 3.7x | 6.0x | -66.5% | Undervalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $5.48B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 12.7x | |
| $4.20B | 19.8x | 11.7x | 3.7x | |
| $3.49B | 0.0x | 10.6x | 1.2x | |
| $2.46B | 3.3x | 7.1x | 0.4x | |
| $3.49B | 0.0x | 10.6x | 1.2x | |
| $2.05B | 26.2x | 316.1x | 11.3x | |
| $2.04B | 13.6x | 8.0x | 2.7x | |
| $728.64B | 62.3x | 45.5x | 14.9x |