Complete SOND Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
SOND DCF Analysis
SOND (Sonder Holdings Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2021 (Historical) | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Projected) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $232.9M | $461.1M | $602.1M | $752.6M | $940.7M | $1.2B | $1.5B | $1.8B |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 97.9% | 30.6% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| EBIT | $-8.9M | $-282.6M | $-278.0M | $37.6M | $47.0M | $58.8M | $73.5M | $91.9M |
| EBIT Margin % | -3.8% | -61.3% | -46.2% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| NOPAT | $-6.7M | $-211.9M | $-208.5M | $28.2M | $35.3M | $44.1M | $55.1M | $68.9M |
| NOPAT Margin % | -2.9% | -46.0% | -34.6% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% |
| Capex | $21.6M | $31.0M | $12.4M | $72.0M | $85.5M | $101.6M | $120.6M | $143.2M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 9.3% | 6.7% | 2.1% | 9.6% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 7.8% |
| Depreciation | $17.7M | $169.2M | $206.9M | $197.3M | $246.6M | $308.3M | $385.4M | $481.7M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 7.6% | 36.7% | 34.4% | 26.2% | 26.2% | 26.2% | 26.2% | 26.2% |
| Change in NWC | $-126.7M | $96.9M | $-407.3M | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | -54.4% | 21.0% | -67.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Unlevered FCF | $116.1M | $-170.7M | $393.3M | $153.5M | $196.4M | $250.8M | $319.9M | $407.4M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | -247.0% | 330.5% | -61.0% | 27.9% | 27.7% | 27.5% | 27.4% |
| FCF / Revenue % | 49.8% | -37.0% | 65.3% | 20.4% | 20.9% | 21.3% | 21.8% | 22.2% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.947 | 0.896 | 0.849 | 0.803 | 0.760 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $145.3M | $176.0M | $212.8M | $256.9M | $309.8M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $145.3M | $321.3M | $534.1M | $791.1M | $1.1B |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 7.4% |
| Tax Rate | 25.0% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.6% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.40% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 1.70 |
| Cost of Equity | 11.7% |
| Total Debt | $1.8B |
| Market Cap | $22.7M |
| Total Capital | $1.8B |
| Debt Weighting | 98.7% |
| Equity Weighting | 1.3% |
| WACC | 5.6% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $407.4M |
| Terminal Value | $13.3B |
| PV of Terminal Value | $10.1B |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $1.1B |
| Net Debt | $1.7B |
| Equity Value | $9.6B |
| Shares Outstanding | 10.9M |
| Implied Share Price | $877 |
| Current Share Price | $2 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | +47552.9% |
Valuation Summary
$876.81
Implied Price
$1.84
Current Price
+47552.9%
Upside/Downside
5.6%
WACC
SOND Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 4 peer companies in Consumer Cyclical
P/E Ratio
$-873.50
-47572.6%
Peer Median: 33.9x
EV/EBITDA
$0.00
-100.0%
Peer Median: 12.8x
P/S Ratio
$45.33
+2363.4%
Peer Median: 0.9x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for SOND's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | SOND Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -0.1x | 33.9x | 33.9x | -100.2% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | Infinityx | 12.8x | 12.9x | Infinity% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 0.0x | 0.9x | 2.2x | -95.9% | Undervalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0.60B | 0.0x | 12.8x | 0.9x | |
| $0.05B | 0.0x | 5.3x | 0.2x | |
| $0.02B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.0x | |
| $181.37B | 33.9x | 20.5x | 7.5x |