Complete XYZ Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 6 different methodologies
XYZ DCF Analysis
XYZ (Block, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $17.5B | $21.9B | $24.1B | $28.9B | $34.1B | $39.7B | $45.4B | $51.4B |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 25.0% | 10.1% | 20.0% | 18.0% | 16.2% | 14.6% | 13.1% |
| EBIT | $-578.0M | $-278.8M | $892.3M | $1.4B | $1.7B | $2.0B | $2.3B | $2.6B |
| EBIT Margin % | -3.3% | -1.3% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 0.0% | 10.3% | 11.7% | 13.2% | 14.7% | 16.2% |
| NOPAT | $-433.5M | $-209.1M | $892.3M | $1.3B | $1.5B | $1.7B | $1.9B | $2.2B |
| NOPAT Margin % | -2.5% | -1.0% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.2% |
| Capex | $170.8M | $151.2M | $153.9M | $317.3M | $355.7M | $396.7M | $454.4M | $514.0M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% |
| Depreciation | $340.5M | $408.6M | $376.1M | $517.6M | $610.7M | $709.5M | $812.8M | $919.3M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.8% |
| Change in NWC | $2.1B | $1.7B | $2.4B | $1.9B | $1.8B | $1.7B | $1.5B | $1.4B |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | 12.0% | 8.0% | 9.9% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 2.7% |
| Unlevered FCF | $-2.4B | $-1.7B | $-1.3B | $-391.2M | $-22.0M | $376.2M | $777.4M | $1.2B |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | 28.2% | 24.4% | 69.5% | 94.4% | 1807.9% | 106.6% | 52.5% |
| FCF / Revenue % | -13.5% | -7.8% | -5.3% | -1.4% | -0.1% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 2.3% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.872 | 0.761 | 0.664 | 0.579 | 0.505 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $-341.2M | $-16.8M | $249.7M | $450.0M | $598.4M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $-341.2M | $-358.0M | $-108.3M | $341.7M | $940.0M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate | 10.3% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 4.5% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.46% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 2.83 |
| Cost of Equity | 16.7% |
| Total Debt | $7.9B |
| Market Cap | $39.0B |
| Total Capital | $46.9B |
| Debt Weighting | 16.9% |
| Equity Weighting | 83.1% |
| WACC | 14.6% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $1.2B |
| Terminal Value | $10.0B |
| PV of Terminal Value | $5.0B |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $940.0M |
| Net Debt | $-4.3B |
| Equity Value | $10.3B |
| Shares Outstanding | 636.4M |
| Implied Share Price | $16 |
| Current Share Price | $63 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | -74.4% |
Valuation Summary
$16.23
Implied Price
$63.45
Current Price
-74.4%
Upside/Downside
14.6%
WACC
XYZ Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 10 peer companies in Technology
P/E Ratio
$115.59
+82.2%
Peer Median: 28.1x
EV/EBITDA
$42.74
-32.7%
Peer Median: 15.3x
P/S Ratio
$180.09
+183.8%
Peer Median: 4.6x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for XYZ's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | XYZ Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 15.4x | 28.1x | 28.3x | -45.1% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | 20.2x | 15.3x | 17.2x | 32.0% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 1.6x | 4.6x | 6.7x | -64.8% | Undervalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $709.23B | 40.5x | 27.8x | 18.9x | |
| $523.99B | 40.4x | 30.7x | 18.0x | |
| $89.53B | 28.1x | 12.6x | 4.3x | |
| $69.28B | 15.7x | 10.3x | 2.2x | |
| $42.05B | 51.5x | 15.3x | 4.1x | |
| $39.03B | 15.4x | 20.2x | 1.6x | |
| $24.16B | 159.4x | 139.4x | 4.6x | |
| $23.01B | 23.0x | 13.7x | 5.7x | |
| $18.48B | 12.0x | 7.2x | 1.8x | |
| $17.67B | 0.0x | 76.5x | 5.9x |
XYZ Graham Number
Benjamin Graham's conservative valuation formula for defensive investors
Input Data
| EPS (TTM) | $4.12 | Latest 10-K |
| Book Value per Share | $33.42 | Latest 10-K Balance Sheet |
| Graham Constant | 22.5 | Benjamin Graham's formula |
Graham Number Result
$55.63
Intrinsic Value
$63.45
Current Price
-12.3%
Upside/Downside
Confidence: High
Conservative value investing approach
Calculation Breakdown
Formula:
√(22.5 × EPS × BVPS)
Step 1: Multiply constant by EPS
22.5 × 4.12 = 92.60
Step 2: Multiply by Book Value per Share
92.60 × 33.42 = 3094.81
Step 3: Take square root
√3094.81 = 55.63
Graham Number Result:
$55.63
XYZ Graham Intrinsic Value
Growth-adjusted intrinsic value with two formula variants
Formula Selection
V = EPS × (8.5 + 2g)
Graham's original P/E shortcut for growth, no interest-rate adjustment
V = [EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4] / Y
Graham's 1974 refinement: adds rate-environment sensitivity
Active Formula: Base-Growth
4.12 × (8.5 + 2 × 135.5%)
Input Data & Growth Assumptions
Current EPS (TTM)$4.12
Latest 10-K • 2024-12-31T00:00:00
Historical 3Y135.5%
Financial statements
Historical 5Y39.8%
Financial statements
Custom
%
Enter a positive growth rate estimate (0-50%)
Graham Intrinsic Value Result
$1150.09
Intrinsic Value
$63.45
Current Price
+1712.5%
Upside/Downside
Base Formula
Growth: 135.5%
XYZ Peter Lynch Fair Value
Growth-based valuation using PEG ratio analysis for growth stocks
Fair Value Calculation
EPS (TTM)$4.12
Latest 10-K • 2024-12-31T00:00:00
Historical 3Y135.5%
3-year earnings growth
Historical 5Y39.8%
5-year earnings growth
135.5%
1%50%
Fair Value Formula: EPS × Growth Rate
$4.12 × 135.5% = $557.55
$557.55
Fair Value
$63.45
Current Price
+778.7%
Upside/Downside
PEG Analysis
15.4x
Current P/E
135.5%
Growth Rate
0.11
PEG Ratio (P/E ÷ Growth Rate)
Significantly Undervalued
PEG Ratio Interpretation:
• PEG < 1.0: Undervalued (growth exceeds P/E)
• PEG = 1.0: Fairly valued (ideal Lynch ratio)
• PEG > 1.5: Overvalued (paying premium for growth)
Peter Lynch's Rule:
"The P/E ratio of any company that's fairly priced will equal its growth rate." A stock with 15% growth should trade at a P/E of 15 (PEG = 1.0).
XYZ Earnings Power Value (EPV)
Normalized earnings-based valuation for sustainable earning power assessment
Earnings Normalization
| Earnings Component | Amount ($B) | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Reported Earnings | 2.9 | Base earnings from financial statements |
| Normalized Earnings | 2.9 | Final normalized earning power |
One-time Items: Remove non-recurring gains/losses
Cyclical Adjustment: Normalize for economic cycle position
EPV Result
$54.96
EPV per Share
$63.45
Current Price
-13.4%
Upside/Downside
8.3%
WACC: 8.3% (calculated from market data)
Confidence: High
Normalized earnings approach
EPV Calculation Breakdown
Enterprise Value Calculation
| Normalized Earnings | $2.9B |
| Cost of Capital | 8.3% |
| Enterprise Value | $35.0B |
Per Share Value
| Enterprise Value | $35.0B |
| Shares Outstanding | 0.6B |
| EPV per Share | $54.96 |
WACC Components
| Cost of Equity | 9.2% |
| After-Tax Cost of Debt | 3.5% |
| Equity Weight | 83.6% |
| Debt Weight | 16.4% |
| WACC | 8.3% |