Complete AVDX Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 5 different methodologies
AVDX DCF Analysis
AVDX (AvidXchange Holdings, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $316.4M | $380.7M | $438.9M | $531.3M | $632.0M | $739.8M | $853.3M | $971.2M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 20.3% | 15.3% | 21.1% | 18.9% | 17.1% | 15.3% | 13.8% |
| EBIT | $-87.4M | $-51.6M | $-2.6M | $26.6M | $31.6M | $37.0M | $42.7M | $48.6M |
| EBIT Margin % | -27.6% | -13.6% | -0.6% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 10.2% | 22.0% | 22.3% | 22.6% | 22.9% | 23.2% |
| NOPAT | $-65.5M | $-38.7M | $-2.3M | $20.7M | $24.5M | $28.6M | $32.9M | $37.3M |
| NOPAT Margin % | -20.7% | -10.2% | -0.5% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.8% |
| Capex | $27.8M | $18.3M | $19.6M | $33.9M | $38.3M | $42.6M | $46.7M | $50.5M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 8.8% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.2% |
| Depreciation | $32.8M | $35.9M | $36.3M | $49.7M | $59.2M | $69.2M | $79.9M | $90.9M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 10.4% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 9.4% |
| Change in NWC | $-109.1M | $9.4M | $-38.0M | $-10.9M | $-10.4M | $-9.7M | $-9.0M | $-8.2M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | -34.5% | 2.5% | -8.6% | -2.1% | -1.6% | -1.3% | -1.1% | -0.8% |
| Unlevered FCF | $48.6M | $-30.5M | $52.3M | $47.5M | $55.8M | $65.0M | $75.0M | $85.9M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | -162.8% | 271.3% | -9.3% | 17.5% | 16.5% | 15.5% | 14.4% |
| FCF / Revenue % | 15.4% | -8.0% | 11.9% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 8.8% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.913 | 0.834 | 0.762 | 0.696 | 0.636 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $43.3M | $46.5M | $49.5M | $52.2M | $54.6M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $43.3M | $89.9M | $139.4M | $191.6M | $246.2M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 5.9% |
| Tax Rate | 22.0% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 4.6% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.37% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 1.22 |
| Cost of Equity | 9.7% |
| Total Debt | $75.4M |
| Market Cap | $2.0B |
| Total Capital | $2.1B |
| Debt Weighting | 3.6% |
| Equity Weighting | 96.4% |
| WACC | 9.5% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $85.9M |
| Terminal Value | $1.3B |
| PV of Terminal Value | $801.4M |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $246.2M |
| Net Debt | $-280.2M |
| Equity Value | $1.3B |
| Shares Outstanding | 209.2M |
| Implied Share Price | $6 |
| Current Share Price | $10 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | -35.1% |
Valuation Summary
$6.35
Implied Price
$9.78
Current Price
-35.1%
Upside/Downside
9.5%
WACC
AVDX Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 11 peer companies in Technology
P/E Ratio
$0.35
-96.4%
Peer Median: 39.3x
EV/EBITDA
$2.28
-76.6%
Peer Median: 10.4x
P/S Ratio
$5.32
-45.6%
Peer Median: 2.5x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for AVDX's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | AVDX Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 1087.4x | 39.3x | 31.1x | 2667.8% | Overvalued |
| EV/EBITDA | 38.3x | 10.4x | 19.7x | 268.6% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 4.6x | 2.5x | 4.8x | 83.7% | Overvalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $4.25B | 0.0x | 184.2x | 3.1x | |
| $4.09B | 39.3x | 34.6x | 12.4x | |
| $3.07B | 3.4x | 4.9x | 0.7x | |
| $2.48B | 23.2x | 8.8x | 2.5x | |
| $2.55B | 49.6x | 41.3x | 4.8x | |
| $2.02B | 1087.4x | 38.3x | 4.6x | |
| $1.97B | 57.7x | 6.2x | 0.5x | |
| $1.23B | 255.2x | 109.0x | 2.4x | |
| $0.67B | 24.1x | 10.4x | 0.7x | |
| $0.63B | 10.8x | 5.1x | 2.2x | |
| $710.80B | 40.6x | 27.9x | 18.9x |
AVDX Graham Number
Benjamin Graham's conservative valuation formula for defensive investors
Input Data
| EPS (TTM) | $0.01 | Latest 10-K |
| Book Value per Share | $3.21 | Latest 10-K Balance Sheet |
| Graham Constant | 22.5 | Benjamin Graham's formula |
Graham Number Result
$0.81
Intrinsic Value
$9.78
Current Price
-91.8%
Upside/Downside
Confidence: High
Conservative value investing approach
Calculation Breakdown
Formula:
√(22.5 × EPS × BVPS)
Step 1: Multiply constant by EPS
22.5 × 0.01 = 0.20
Step 2: Multiply by Book Value per Share
0.20 × 3.21 = 0.65
Step 3: Take square root
√0.65 = 0.81
Graham Number Result:
$0.81
AVDX Graham Intrinsic Value
Growth-adjusted intrinsic value with two formula variants
Formula Selection
V = EPS × (8.5 + 2g)
Graham's original P/E shortcut for growth, no interest-rate adjustment
V = [EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4] / Y
Graham's 1974 refinement: adds rate-environment sensitivity
Active Formula: Base-Growth
0.01 × (8.5 + 2 × 8.0%)
Input Data & Growth Assumptions
Current EPS (TTM)$0.01
Latest 10-K • 2024-12-31T00:00:00
No positive historical growth rates available.
Graham's formula is designed for growing companies. Use the custom input below with a conservative positive growth estimate (5-10%).
Custom
%
Enter a positive growth rate estimate (0-50%)
Graham Intrinsic Value Result
$0.22
Intrinsic Value
$9.78
Current Price
-97.7%
Upside/Downside
Base Formula
Growth: 8.0%
AVDX Peter Lynch Fair Value
Growth-based valuation using PEG ratio analysis for growth stocks
Fair Value Calculation
EPS (TTM)$0.01
Latest 10-K • 2024-12-31T00:00:00
No positive historical growth rates available. Using custom growth rate slider.
10.0%
1%50%
Fair Value Formula: EPS × Growth Rate
$0.01 × 10.0% = $0.09
$0.09
Fair Value
$9.78
Current Price
-99.1%
Upside/Downside
PEG Analysis
1087.4x
Current P/E
10.0%
Growth Rate
108.74
PEG Ratio (P/E ÷ Growth Rate)
Significantly Overvalued
PEG Ratio Interpretation:
• PEG < 1.0: Undervalued (growth exceeds P/E)
• PEG = 1.0: Fairly valued (ideal Lynch ratio)
• PEG > 1.5: Overvalued (paying premium for growth)
Peter Lynch's Rule:
"The P/E ratio of any company that's fairly priced will equal its growth rate." A stock with 15% growth should trade at a P/E of 15 (PEG = 1.0).