Complete FLYW Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 5 different methodologies
FLYW DCF Analysis
FLYW (Flywire Corporation) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $289.4M | $403.1M | $492.1M | $615.2M | $769.0M | $961.2M | $1.2B | $1.5B |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 39.3% | 22.1% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 22.7% |
| EBIT | $-30.2M | $-21.5M | $-7.3M | $30.8M | $38.4M | $48.1M | $60.1M | $73.7M |
| EBIT Margin % | -10.4% | -5.3% | -1.5% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 0.0% | 20.0% | 20.5% | 21.0% | 21.5% | 22.0% |
| NOPAT | $-22.7M | $-16.1M | $-7.3M | $24.6M | $30.6M | $38.0M | $47.2M | $57.5M |
| NOPAT Margin % | -7.8% | -4.0% | -1.5% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 3.9% |
| Capex | $7.1M | $6.0M | $924.0K | $11.2M | $13.3M | $15.8M | $18.7M | $21.8M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.5% |
| Depreciation | $12.3M | $15.8M | $17.4M | $24.0M | $30.0M | $37.5M | $46.8M | $57.5M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 4.3% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.9% |
| Change in NWC | $-52.5M | $268.5M | $-68.8M | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | -18.1% | 66.6% | -14.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Unlevered FCF | $35.0M | $-274.9M | $78.0M | $37.4M | $47.3M | $59.7M | $75.3M | $93.2M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | -884.7% | 128.4% | -52.0% | 26.4% | 26.2% | 26.1% | 23.8% |
| FCF / Revenue % | 12.1% | -68.2% | 15.8% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.3% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.910 | 0.829 | 0.754 | 0.687 | 0.625 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $34.1M | $39.2M | $45.0M | $51.7M | $58.2M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $34.1M | $73.2M | $118.2M | $169.9M | $228.1M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 6.9% |
| Tax Rate | 20.0% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.5% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.37% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 1.27 |
| Cost of Equity | 9.9% |
| Total Debt | $1.7M |
| Market Cap | $1.2B |
| Total Capital | $1.2B |
| Debt Weighting | 0.1% |
| Equity Weighting | 99.9% |
| WACC | 9.9% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $93.2M |
| Terminal Value | $1.3B |
| PV of Terminal Value | $811.1M |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $228.1M |
| Net Debt | $-493.5M |
| Equity Value | $1.5B |
| Shares Outstanding | 129.3M |
| Implied Share Price | $12 |
| Current Share Price | $10 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | +15.4% |
Valuation Summary
$11.85
Implied Price
$10.27
Current Price
+15.4%
Upside/Downside
9.9%
WACC
FLYW Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 10 peer companies in Technology
P/E Ratio
$1.09
-89.4%
Peer Median: 27.1x
EV/EBITDA
$0.59
-94.3%
Peer Median: 10.4x
P/S Ratio
$10.64
+3.6%
Peer Median: 2.5x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for FLYW's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | FLYW Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 255.2x | 27.1x | 29.6x | 840.7% | Overvalued |
| EV/EBITDA | 109.0x | 10.4x | 18.1x | 948.3% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 2.4x | 2.5x | 4.0x | -3.5% | Fair Value |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $3.07B | 3.4x | 4.9x | 0.7x | |
| $2.48B | 23.2x | 8.8x | 2.5x | |
| $2.55B | 49.6x | 41.3x | 4.8x | |
| $2.02B | 1087.4x | 38.3x | 4.6x | |
| $1.97B | 57.7x | 6.2x | 0.5x | |
| $1.23B | 255.2x | 109.0x | 2.4x | |
| $0.67B | 24.1x | 10.4x | 0.7x | |
| $0.63B | 10.8x | 5.1x | 2.2x | |
| $0.56B | 27.1x | 19.9x | 2.7x | |
| $710.80B | 40.6x | 27.9x | 18.9x |
FLYW Graham Number
Benjamin Graham's conservative valuation formula for defensive investors
Input Data
| EPS (TTM) | $0.04 | Latest 10-K |
| Book Value per Share | $6.30 | Latest 10-K Balance Sheet |
| Graham Constant | 22.5 | Benjamin Graham's formula |
Graham Number Result
$2.39
Intrinsic Value
$10.27
Current Price
-76.7%
Upside/Downside
Confidence: High
Conservative value investing approach
Calculation Breakdown
Formula:
√(22.5 × EPS × BVPS)
Step 1: Multiply constant by EPS
22.5 × 0.04 = 0.91
Step 2: Multiply by Book Value per Share
0.91 × 6.30 = 5.70
Step 3: Take square root
√5.70 = 2.39
Graham Number Result:
$2.39
FLYW Graham Intrinsic Value
Growth-adjusted intrinsic value with two formula variants
Formula Selection
V = EPS × (8.5 + 2g)
Graham's original P/E shortcut for growth, no interest-rate adjustment
V = [EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4] / Y
Graham's 1974 refinement: adds rate-environment sensitivity
Active Formula: Base-Growth
0.04 × (8.5 + 2 × 8.0%)
Input Data & Growth Assumptions
Current EPS (TTM)$0.04
Latest 10-K • 2024-12-31T00:00:00
No positive historical growth rates available.
Graham's formula is designed for growing companies. Use the custom input below with a conservative positive growth estimate (5-10%).
Custom
%
Enter a positive growth rate estimate (0-50%)
Graham Intrinsic Value Result
$0.99
Intrinsic Value
$10.27
Current Price
-90.4%
Upside/Downside
Base Formula
Growth: 8.0%
FLYW Peter Lynch Fair Value
Growth-based valuation using PEG ratio analysis for growth stocks
Fair Value Calculation
EPS (TTM)$0.04
Latest 10-K • 2024-12-31T00:00:00
No positive historical growth rates available. Using custom growth rate slider.
10.0%
1%50%
Fair Value Formula: EPS × Growth Rate
$0.04 × 10.0% = $0.40
$0.40
Fair Value
$10.27
Current Price
-96.1%
Upside/Downside
PEG Analysis
255.2x
Current P/E
10.0%
Growth Rate
25.52
PEG Ratio (P/E ÷ Growth Rate)
Significantly Overvalued
PEG Ratio Interpretation:
• PEG < 1.0: Undervalued (growth exceeds P/E)
• PEG = 1.0: Fairly valued (ideal Lynch ratio)
• PEG > 1.5: Overvalued (paying premium for growth)
Peter Lynch's Rule:
"The P/E ratio of any company that's fairly priced will equal its growth rate." A stock with 15% growth should trade at a P/E of 15 (PEG = 1.0).