Complete NATL Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 3 different methodologies
NATL DCF Analysis
NATL (NCR Atleos Corporation) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.4B | $4.2B | $4.3B | $4.6B | $4.9B | $5.1B | $5.4B | $5.6B |
| Revenue Growth % | - | -3.9% | 3.0% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 4.2% |
| EBIT | $257.0M | $271.0M | $449.0M | $348.7M | $373.9M | $398.6M | $422.8M | $446.3M |
| EBIT Margin % | 5.9% | 6.5% | 10.4% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 8.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 50.0% | 33.8% | 30.9% | 30.3% | 29.7% | 29.1% | 28.5% |
| NOPAT | $192.8M | $135.5M | $297.2M | $241.1M | $260.7M | $280.3M | $299.7M | $319.0M |
| NOPAT Margin % | 4.4% | 3.2% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.7% |
| Capex | $97.0M | $132.0M | $139.0M | $117.0M | $117.6M | $117.6M | $117.0M | $115.8M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 2.2% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.1% |
| Depreciation | $259.0M | $254.0M | $287.0M | $285.7M | $302.3M | $318.2M | $333.2M | $347.4M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% |
| Change in NWC | $329.0M | $-132.0M | $-84.0M | $22.5M | $19.0M | $16.0M | $13.4M | $11.2M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | 7.5% | -3.1% | -1.9% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Unlevered FCF | $25.8M | $389.5M | $529.2M | $387.3M | $426.4M | $464.8M | $502.5M | $539.4M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | 1412.6% | 35.9% | -26.8% | 10.1% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 7.3% |
| FCF / Revenue % | 0.6% | 9.3% | 12.3% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 9.7% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.941 | 0.885 | 0.832 | 0.783 | 0.736 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $364.3M | $377.2M | $386.8M | $393.3M | $397.0M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $364.3M | $741.5M | $1.1B | $1.5B | $1.9B |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 6.9% |
| Tax Rate | 30.9% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 4.8% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.40% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 0.99 |
| Cost of Equity | 8.7% |
| Total Debt | $3.0B |
| Market Cap | $2.0B |
| Total Capital | $5.0B |
| Debt Weighting | 60.5% |
| Equity Weighting | 39.5% |
| WACC | 6.3% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $539.4M |
| Terminal Value | $14.5B |
| PV of Terminal Value | $10.6B |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $1.9B |
| Net Debt | $2.6B |
| Equity Value | $9.9B |
| Shares Outstanding | 74.2M |
| Implied Share Price | $134 |
| Current Share Price | $27 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | +394.3% |
Valuation Summary
$133.92
Implied Price
$27.09
Current Price
+394.3%
Upside/Downside
6.3%
WACC
NATL Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 11 peer companies in Technology
P/E Ratio
$12.70
-53.1%
Peer Median: 27.3x
EV/EBITDA
$200.49
+639.9%
Peer Median: 20.0x
P/S Ratio
$146.84
+441.9%
Peer Median: 2.5x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for NATL's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | NATL Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 58.2x | 27.3x | 31.1x | 113.4% | Overvalued |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.3x | 20.0x | 20.0x | -68.6% | Undervalued |
| P/S Ratio | 0.5x | 2.5x | 4.8x | -81.5% | Undervalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $4.26B | 40.9x | 36.0x | 12.9x | |
| $3.12B | 3.5x | 4.9x | 0.8x | |
| $2.53B | 23.7x | 9.1x | 2.5x | |
| $2.57B | 50.0x | 41.8x | 4.9x | |
| $2.02B | 1087.4x | 38.3x | 4.6x | |
| $1.99B | 58.2x | 6.3x | 0.5x | |
| $1.26B | 260.9x | 113.0x | 2.5x | |
| $0.68B | 24.4x | 10.5x | 0.8x | |
| $0.65B | 11.1x | 5.2x | 2.2x | |
| $0.56B | 27.3x | 20.0x | 2.7x | |
| $716.50B | 40.9x | 28.1x | 19.0x |
NATL Graham Number
Benjamin Graham's conservative valuation formula for defensive investors
Input Data
| EPS (TTM) | $0.47 | Latest 10-K |
| Book Value per Share | $3.50 | Latest 10-K Balance Sheet |
| Graham Constant | 22.5 | Benjamin Graham's formula |
Graham Number Result
$6.06
Intrinsic Value
$27.09
Current Price
-77.6%
Upside/Downside
Confidence: High
Conservative value investing approach
Calculation Breakdown
Formula:
√(22.5 × EPS × BVPS)
Step 1: Multiply constant by EPS
22.5 × 0.47 = 10.47
Step 2: Multiply by Book Value per Share
10.47 × 3.50 = 36.69
Step 3: Take square root
√36.69 = 6.06
Graham Number Result:
$6.06