Complete CTLP Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 6 different methodologies
CTLP DCF Analysis
CTLP (Cantaloupe, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $195.2M | $243.6M | $268.6M | $309.3M | $351.5M | $394.7M | $438.3M | $481.9M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 24.8% | 10.2% | 15.2% | 13.6% | 12.3% | 11.1% | 9.9% |
| EBIT | $-993.0K | $760.0K | $14.2M | $15.5M | $17.6M | $19.7M | $21.9M | $24.1M |
| EBIT Margin % | -0.5% | 0.3% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 22.2% | 7.6% | 21.0% | 21.4% | 21.8% | 22.2% | 22.6% |
| NOPAT | $-744.8K | $591.0K | $13.1M | $12.2M | $13.8M | $15.4M | $17.1M | $18.7M |
| NOPAT Margin % | -0.4% | 0.2% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.9% |
| Capex | $9.3M | $16.2M | $14.9M | $12.1M | $13.1M | $14.0M | $14.7M | $15.4M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 4.7% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.2% |
| Depreciation | $5.3M | $8.8M | $12.2M | $11.2M | $12.8M | $14.3M | $15.9M | $17.5M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 2.7% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.6% |
| Change in NWC | $-8.2M | $-15.7M | $10.2M | $-5.3M | $-4.8M | $-4.3M | $-3.8M | $-3.4M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | -4.2% | -6.4% | 3.8% | -1.7% | -1.4% | -1.1% | -0.9% | -0.7% |
| Unlevered FCF | $3.5M | $9.0M | $153.6K | $16.6M | $18.3M | $20.1M | $22.1M | $24.1M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | 154.1% | -98.3% | 10724.1% | 10.1% | 9.9% | 9.7% | 9.3% |
| FCF / Revenue % | 1.8% | 3.7% | 0.1% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.918 | 0.843 | 0.775 | 0.711 | 0.653 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $15.3M | $15.4M | $15.6M | $15.7M | $15.8M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $15.3M | $30.7M | $46.3M | $62.0M | $77.8M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 6.9% |
| Tax Rate | 21.0% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.5% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.40% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 1.09 |
| Cost of Equity | 9.1% |
| Total Debt | $47.3M |
| Market Cap | $640.0M |
| Total Capital | $687.3M |
| Debt Weighting | 6.9% |
| Equity Weighting | 93.1% |
| WACC | 8.9% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $24.1M |
| Terminal Value | $387.7M |
| PV of Terminal Value | $253.3M |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $77.8M |
| Net Debt | $-11.6M |
| Equity Value | $342.7M |
| Shares Outstanding | 74.2M |
| Implied Share Price | $5 |
| Current Share Price | $9 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | -47.3% |
Valuation Summary
$4.62
Implied Price
$8.76
Current Price
-47.3%
Upside/Downside
8.9%
WACC
CTLP Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 10 peer companies in Technology
P/E Ratio
$21.88
+149.8%
Peer Median: 27.3x
EV/EBITDA
$17.49
+99.6%
Peer Median: 10.4x
P/S Ratio
$9.66
+10.3%
Peer Median: 2.4x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for CTLP's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | CTLP Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 10.9x | 27.3x | 31.1x | -60.0% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.1x | 10.4x | 18.0x | -50.8% | Undervalued |
| P/S Ratio | 2.2x | 2.4x | 3.9x | -9.3% | Fair Value |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $2.54B | 49.4x | 41.0x | 4.8x | |
| $2.02B | 1087.4x | 38.3x | 4.6x | |
| $1.99B | 58.2x | 6.3x | 0.5x | |
| $1.23B | 256.2x | 109.7x | 2.4x | |
| $0.67B | 24.3x | 10.4x | 0.7x | |
| $0.64B | 10.9x | 5.1x | 2.2x | |
| $0.56B | 27.3x | 20.0x | 2.7x | |
| $0.47B | 0.0x | 9.1x | 1.5x | |
| $0.34B | 6.5x | 3.8x | 0.5x | |
| $717.57B | 41.0x | 28.1x | 19.1x |
CTLP Graham Number
Benjamin Graham's conservative valuation formula for defensive investors
Input Data
| EPS (TTM) | $0.80 | Latest 10-K |
| Book Value per Share | $2.49 | Latest 10-K Balance Sheet |
| Graham Constant | 22.5 | Benjamin Graham's formula |
Graham Number Result
$6.70
Intrinsic Value
$8.76
Current Price
-23.5%
Upside/Downside
Confidence: High
Conservative value investing approach
Calculation Breakdown
Formula:
√(22.5 × EPS × BVPS)
Step 1: Multiply constant by EPS
22.5 × 0.80 = 18.04
Step 2: Multiply by Book Value per Share
18.04 × 2.49 = 44.86
Step 3: Take square root
√44.86 = 6.70
Graham Number Result:
$6.70
CTLP Graham Intrinsic Value
Growth-adjusted intrinsic value with two formula variants
Formula Selection
V = EPS × (8.5 + 2g)
Graham's original P/E shortcut for growth, no interest-rate adjustment
V = [EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4] / Y
Graham's 1974 refinement: adds rate-environment sensitivity
Active Formula: Base-Growth
0.80 × (8.5 + 2 × 8.0%)
Input Data & Growth Assumptions
Current EPS (TTM)$0.80
Latest 10-K • 2024-06-30T00:00:00
No positive historical growth rates available.
Graham's formula is designed for growing companies. Use the custom input below with a conservative positive growth estimate (5-10%).
Custom
%
Enter a positive growth rate estimate (0-50%)
Graham Intrinsic Value Result
$19.64
Intrinsic Value
$8.76
Current Price
+124.2%
Upside/Downside
Base Formula
Growth: 8.0%
CTLP Peter Lynch Fair Value
Growth-based valuation using PEG ratio analysis for growth stocks
Fair Value Calculation
EPS (TTM)$0.80
Latest 10-K • 2024-06-30T00:00:00
No positive historical growth rates available. Using custom growth rate slider.
10.0%
1%50%
Fair Value Formula: EPS × Growth Rate
$0.80 × 10.0% = $8.02
$8.02
Fair Value
$8.76
Current Price
-8.5%
Upside/Downside
PEG Analysis
10.9x
Current P/E
10.0%
Growth Rate
1.09
PEG Ratio (P/E ÷ Growth Rate)
Fairly Valued
PEG Ratio Interpretation:
• PEG < 1.0: Undervalued (growth exceeds P/E)
• PEG = 1.0: Fairly valued (ideal Lynch ratio)
• PEG > 1.5: Overvalued (paying premium for growth)
Peter Lynch's Rule:
"The P/E ratio of any company that's fairly priced will equal its growth rate." A stock with 15% growth should trade at a P/E of 15 (PEG = 1.0).
CTLP Earnings Power Value (EPV)
Normalized earnings-based valuation for sustainable earning power assessment
Earnings Normalization
| Earnings Component | Amount ($B) | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Reported Earnings | 0.0 | Base earnings from financial statements |
| Normalized Earnings | 0.0 | Final normalized earning power |
One-time Items: Remove non-recurring gains/losses
Cyclical Adjustment: Normalize for economic cycle position
EPV Result
$1.84
EPV per Share
$8.76
Current Price
-79.0%
Upside/Downside
8.8%
WACC: 8.8% (calculated from market data)
Confidence: High
Normalized earnings approach
EPV Calculation Breakdown
Enterprise Value Calculation
| Normalized Earnings | $0.0B |
| Cost of Capital | 8.8% |
| Enterprise Value | $0.1B |
Per Share Value
| Enterprise Value | $0.1B |
| Shares Outstanding | 0.1B |
| EPV per Share | $1.84 |
WACC Components
| Cost of Equity | 9.2% |
| After-Tax Cost of Debt | 3.5% |
| Equity Weight | 93.2% |
| Debt Weight | 6.8% |
| WACC | 8.8% |