Complete AXSM Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
AXSM DCF Analysis
AXSM (Axsome Therapeutics, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $50.0M | $270.6M | $385.7M | $482.1M | $602.6M | $753.3M | $941.6M | $1.2B |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 440.8% | 42.5% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| EBIT | $-176.5M | $-231.8M | $-280.6M | $24.1M | $30.1M | $37.7M | $47.1M | $58.9M |
| EBIT Margin % | -352.7% | -85.7% | -72.7% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| NOPAT | $-132.4M | $-173.9M | $-210.4M | $18.1M | $22.6M | $28.2M | $35.3M | $44.1M |
| NOPAT Margin % | -264.6% | -64.3% | -54.6% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% |
| Capex | $702.1K | $582.0K | $270.0K | $4.8M | $6.0M | $7.5M | $9.4M | $11.8M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% |
| Depreciation | $5.6M | $6.8M | $0 | $21.9M | $27.4M | $34.3M | $42.8M | $53.5M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 11.1% | 2.5% | 0.0% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.5% |
| Change in NWC | $85.6M | $216.3M | $-110.4M | $4.8M | $6.0M | $7.5M | $9.4M | $11.8M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | 171.1% | 79.9% | -28.6% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% |
| Unlevered FCF | $-213.1M | $-383.9M | $-100.2M | $30.4M | $38.0M | $47.4M | $59.3M | $74.1M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | -80.1% | 73.9% | 130.3% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| FCF / Revenue % | -426.0% | -141.9% | -26.0% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.3% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.940 | 0.884 | 0.831 | 0.781 | 0.735 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $28.5M | $33.6M | $39.4M | $46.3M | $54.5M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $28.5M | $62.1M | $101.5M | $147.9M | $202.3M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 5.9% |
| Tax Rate | 25.0% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 4.4% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.40% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 0.47 |
| Cost of Equity | 6.4% |
| Total Debt | $193.0M |
| Market Cap | $5.5B |
| Total Capital | $5.7B |
| Debt Weighting | 3.4% |
| Equity Weighting | 96.6% |
| WACC | 6.4% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $74.1M |
| Terminal Value | $2.0B |
| PV of Terminal Value | $1.4B |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $202.3M |
| Net Debt | $-122.4M |
| Equity Value | $1.8B |
| Shares Outstanding | 47.9M |
| Implied Share Price | $37 |
| Current Share Price | $111 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | -66.8% |
Valuation Summary
$36.94
Implied Price
$111.35
Current Price
-66.8%
Upside/Downside
6.4%
WACC
AXSM Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 8 peer companies in Healthcare
P/E Ratio
$-113.10
-201.6%
Peer Median: 19.9x
EV/EBITDA
$0.00
-100.0%
Peer Median: 14.2x
P/S Ratio
$32.45
-70.9%
Peer Median: 3.7x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for AXSM's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | AXSM Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -19.6x | 19.9x | 33.3x | -198.5% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | Infinityx | 14.2x | 17.7x | Infinity% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 12.7x | 3.7x | 5.7x | 243.2% | Overvalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $10.09B | 0.0x | 14.2x | 0.7x | |
| $7.39B | 62.9x | 65.3x | 10.8x | |
| $6.79B | 18.3x | 17.0x | 1.5x | |
| $5.48B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 12.7x | |
| $4.21B | 19.9x | 11.8x | 3.7x | |
| $3.41B | 0.0x | 10.4x | 1.2x | |
| $2.48B | 3.3x | 7.1x | 0.4x | |
| $727.54B | 62.2x | 45.5x | 14.8x |