Complete XBP Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
XBP DCF Analysis
XBP (XBP Europe Holdings, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $180.5M | $155.2M | $142.4M | $128.2M | $116.1M | $106.2M | $98.0M | $91.3M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | -14.0% | -8.2% | -10.0% | -9.5% | -8.5% | -7.7% | -6.9% |
| EBIT | $-1.9M | $1.1M | $3.5M | $6.4M | $5.8M | $5.3M | $4.9M | $4.6M |
| EBIT Margin % | -1.1% | 0.7% | 2.4% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| NOPAT | $-1.5M | $837.8K | $2.6M | $4.8M | $4.4M | $4.0M | $3.7M | $3.4M |
| NOPAT Margin % | -0.8% | 0.5% | 1.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% |
| Capex | $6.4M | $2.7M | $1.3M | $2.1M | $1.8M | $1.5M | $1.4M | $1.2M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 3.5% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.3% |
| Depreciation | $4.4M | $3.9M | $3.7M | $3.2M | $2.9M | $2.7M | $2.5M | $2.3M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% |
| Change in NWC | $4.3M | $-327.0K | $4.8M | $-530.0K | $-384.0K | $-281.0K | $-207.6K | $-154.6K |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | 2.4% | -0.2% | 3.4% | -0.4% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.2% | -0.2% |
| Unlevered FCF | $-7.8M | $2.3M | $279.0K | $6.5M | $5.9M | $5.4M | $5.0M | $4.7M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | 130.2% | -88.1% | 2223.6% | -9.5% | -8.3% | -7.3% | -6.4% |
| FCF / Revenue % | -4.3% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.1% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.963 | 0.927 | 0.892 | 0.859 | 0.827 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $6.2M | $5.4M | $4.8M | $4.3M | $3.9M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $6.2M | $11.7M | $16.5M | $20.8M | $24.6M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 6.9% |
| Tax Rate | 25.0% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.2% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.40% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | -0.41 |
| Cost of Equity | 2.6% |
| Total Debt | $35.4M |
| Market Cap | $36.6M |
| Total Capital | $72.0M |
| Debt Weighting | 49.1% |
| Equity Weighting | 50.9% |
| WACC | 3.9% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $4.7M |
| Terminal Value | $346.7M |
| PV of Terminal Value | $286.6M |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $24.6M |
| Net Debt | $23.3M |
| Equity Value | $287.9M |
| Shares Outstanding | 30.2M |
| Implied Share Price | $10 |
| Current Share Price | $1 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | +835.7% |
Valuation Summary
$9.54
Implied Price
$1.02
Current Price
+835.7%
Upside/Downside
3.9%
WACC
XBP Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 6 peer companies in Technology
P/E Ratio
$-16.80
-1746.7%
Peer Median: 40.6x
EV/EBITDA
$1.67
+63.6%
Peer Median: 25.5x
P/S Ratio
$2.10
+105.5%
Peer Median: 0.5x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for XBP's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | XBP Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -2.5x | 40.6x | 31.5x | -106.1% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | 25.5x | 25.5x | 22.0x | 0.0% | Fair Value |
| P/S Ratio | 0.3x | 0.5x | 4.0x | -51.3% | Undervalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0.26B | 42.6x | 20.9x | 4.0x | |
| $0.04B | 11.1x | 13.6x | 0.4x | |
| $0.04B | 0.0x | 25.5x | 0.3x | |
| $0.01B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.1x | |
| $0.01B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.5x | |
| $711.23B | 40.6x | 27.9x | 18.9x |