Complete USIO Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 5 different methodologies
USIO DCF Analysis
USIO (Usio, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $69.4M | $82.6M | $82.9M | $97.4M | $112.7M | $128.7M | $145.1M | $161.7M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 19.0% | 0.4% | 17.5% | 15.7% | 14.2% | 12.7% | 11.5% |
| EBIT | $-5.2M | $-1.9M | $-1.5M | $4.9M | $5.6M | $6.4M | $7.3M | $8.1M |
| EBIT Margin % | -7.5% | -2.3% | -1.8% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 0.0% | 20.0% | 20.5% | 21.0% | 21.5% | 22.0% |
| NOPAT | $-3.9M | $-1.4M | $-1.5M | $3.9M | $4.5M | $5.1M | $5.7M | $6.3M |
| NOPAT Margin % | -5.6% | -1.7% | -1.8% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 3.9% |
| Capex | $812.2K | $835.0K | $991.9K | $1.6M | $1.7M | $1.9M | $2.0M | $2.1M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.3% |
| Depreciation | $2.7M | $2.1M | $2.3M | $3.0M | $3.5M | $3.9M | $4.4M | $5.0M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 3.9% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.1% |
| Change in NWC | $-3.0M | $2.2M | $2.2M | $1.2M | $1.1M | $1.0M | $910.9K | $812.3K |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | -4.3% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.5% |
| Unlevered FCF | $1.0M | $-2.4M | $-2.4M | $4.1M | $5.1M | $6.1M | $7.2M | $8.3M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | -337.4% | 1.1% | 271.6% | 24.0% | 20.4% | 17.6% | 15.3% |
| FCF / Revenue % | 1.5% | -2.9% | -2.9% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.1% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.906 | 0.821 | 0.744 | 0.674 | 0.611 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $3.7M | $4.2M | $4.6M | $4.9M | $5.1M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $3.7M | $7.9M | $12.5M | $17.3M | $22.4M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 6.9% |
| Tax Rate | 20.0% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.5% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.40% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 1.49 |
| Cost of Equity | 10.9% |
| Total Debt | $3.9M |
| Market Cap | $37.5M |
| Total Capital | $41.4M |
| Debt Weighting | 9.3% |
| Equity Weighting | 90.7% |
| WACC | 10.4% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $8.3M |
| Terminal Value | $108.5M |
| PV of Terminal Value | $66.3M |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $22.4M |
| Net Debt | $-4.2M |
| Equity Value | $92.9M |
| Shares Outstanding | 26.9M |
| Implied Share Price | $3 |
| Current Share Price | $1 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | +144.6% |
Valuation Summary
$3.46
Implied Price
$1.42
Current Price
+144.6%
Upside/Downside
10.4%
WACC
USIO Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 6 peer companies in Technology
P/E Ratio
$5.12
+262.0%
Peer Median: 41.1x
EV/EBITDA
$1.97
+38.9%
Peer Median: 21.7x
P/S Ratio
$1.75
+23.4%
Peer Median: 0.6x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for USIO's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | USIO Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 11.3x | 41.1x | 25.8x | -72.4% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.9x | 21.7x | 18.5x | -36.0% | Undervalued |
| P/S Ratio | 0.4x | 0.6x | 4.1x | -18.9% | Fair Value |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0.35B | 6.6x | 3.8x | 0.6x | |
| $0.26B | 44.2x | 21.7x | 4.1x | |
| $0.04B | 11.3x | 13.9x | 0.4x | |
| $0.04B | 0.0x | 25.1x | 0.3x | |
| $0.01B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.1x | |
| $718.57B | 41.1x | 28.2x | 19.1x |
USIO Graham Number
Benjamin Graham's conservative valuation formula for defensive investors
Input Data
| EPS (TTM) | $0.12 | Latest 10-K |
| Book Value per Share | $0.71 | Latest 10-K Balance Sheet |
| Graham Constant | 22.5 | Benjamin Graham's formula |
Graham Number Result
$1.42
Intrinsic Value
$1.42
Current Price
+0.0%
Upside/Downside
Confidence: High
Conservative value investing approach
Calculation Breakdown
Formula:
√(22.5 × EPS × BVPS)
Step 1: Multiply constant by EPS
22.5 × 0.12 = 2.81
Step 2: Multiply by Book Value per Share
2.81 × 0.71 = 2.00
Step 3: Take square root
√2.00 = 1.42
Graham Number Result:
$1.42
USIO Graham Intrinsic Value
Growth-adjusted intrinsic value with two formula variants
Formula Selection
V = EPS × (8.5 + 2g)
Graham's original P/E shortcut for growth, no interest-rate adjustment
V = [EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4] / Y
Graham's 1974 refinement: adds rate-environment sensitivity
Active Formula: Base-Growth
0.12 × (8.5 + 2 × 8.0%)
Input Data & Growth Assumptions
Current EPS (TTM)$0.12
Latest 10-K • 2024-12-31T00:00:00
No positive historical growth rates available.
Graham's formula is designed for growing companies. Use the custom input below with a conservative positive growth estimate (5-10%).
Custom
%
Enter a positive growth rate estimate (0-50%)
Graham Intrinsic Value Result
$3.06
Intrinsic Value
$1.42
Current Price
+116.0%
Upside/Downside
Base Formula
Growth: 8.0%
USIO Peter Lynch Fair Value
Growth-based valuation using PEG ratio analysis for growth stocks
Fair Value Calculation
EPS (TTM)$0.12
Latest 10-K • 2024-12-31T00:00:00
No positive historical growth rates available. Using custom growth rate slider.
10.0%
1%50%
Fair Value Formula: EPS × Growth Rate
$0.12 × 10.0% = $1.25
$1.25
Fair Value
$1.42
Current Price
-11.8%
Upside/Downside
PEG Analysis
11.3x
Current P/E
10.0%
Growth Rate
1.13
PEG Ratio (P/E ÷ Growth Rate)
Fairly Valued
PEG Ratio Interpretation:
• PEG < 1.0: Undervalued (growth exceeds P/E)
• PEG = 1.0: Fairly valued (ideal Lynch ratio)
• PEG > 1.5: Overvalued (paying premium for growth)
Peter Lynch's Rule:
"The P/E ratio of any company that's fairly priced will equal its growth rate." A stock with 15% growth should trade at a P/E of 15 (PEG = 1.0).