Complete PAYS Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 6 different methodologies
PAYS DCF Analysis
PAYS (PaySign, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $38.0M | $47.3M | $58.4M | $72.8M | $89.0M | $106.8M | $126.1M | $146.6M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 24.3% | 23.5% | 24.7% | 22.2% | 20.0% | 18.0% | 16.2% |
| EBIT | $344.3K | $-167.3K | $1.0M | $3.6M | $4.5M | $5.3M | $6.3M | $7.3M |
| EBIT Margin % | 0.9% | -0.4% | 1.7% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 9.5% | 0.0% | 7.8% | 13.5% | 14.6% | 15.8% | 16.9% | 18.1% |
| NOPAT | $311.7K | $-167.3K | $942.0K | $3.2M | $3.8M | $4.5M | $5.2M | $6.0M |
| NOPAT Margin % | 0.8% | -0.4% | 1.6% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.1% |
| Capex | $4.1M | $7.0M | $9.5M | $9.4M | $11.0M | $12.5M | $14.0M | $15.5M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 10.8% | 14.9% | 16.3% | 13.0% | 12.3% | 11.7% | 11.1% | 10.6% |
| Depreciation | $2.9M | $4.0M | $6.0M | $6.4M | $7.8M | $9.4M | $11.1M | $12.9M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 7.7% | 8.5% | 10.3% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 8.8% |
| Change in NWC | $2.1M | $918.5K | $2.7M | $1.6M | $1.5M | $1.5M | $1.4M | $1.3M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | 5.6% | 1.9% | 4.7% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.9% |
| Unlevered FCF | $-3.0M | $-4.1M | $-5.3M | $-1.4M | $-861.7K | $-69.4K | $931.1K | $2.1M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | -36.4% | -28.7% | 72.6% | 40.5% | 91.9% | 1442.3% | 129.4% |
| FCF / Revenue % | -7.9% | -8.7% | -9.1% | -2.0% | -1.0% | -0.1% | 0.7% | 1.5% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.935 | 0.875 | 0.818 | 0.765 | 0.715 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $-1.4M | $-753.6K | $-56.7K | $712.3K | $1.5M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $-1.4M | $-2.1M | $-2.2M | $-1.5M | $75.1K |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 6.9% |
| Tax Rate | 13.5% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 6.0% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.40% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 0.59 |
| Cost of Equity | 6.9% |
| Total Debt | $2.9M |
| Market Cap | $264.0M |
| Total Capital | $267.0M |
| Debt Weighting | 1.1% |
| Equity Weighting | 98.9% |
| WACC | 6.9% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $2.1M |
| Terminal Value | $49.5M |
| PV of Terminal Value | $35.4M |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $75.1K |
| Net Debt | $-7.8M |
| Equity Value | $43.3M |
| Shares Outstanding | 55.6M |
| Implied Share Price | $1 |
| Current Share Price | $5 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | -84.0% |
Valuation Summary
$0.78
Implied Price
$4.87
Current Price
-84.0%
Upside/Downside
6.9%
WACC
PAYS Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 7 peer companies in Technology
P/E Ratio
$3.04
-36.7%
Peer Median: 27.6x
EV/EBITDA
$3.01
-37.3%
Peer Median: 13.8x
P/S Ratio
$2.56
-46.7%
Peer Median: 2.2x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for PAYS's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | PAYS Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 43.5x | 27.6x | 23.5x | 58.0% | Overvalued |
| EV/EBITDA | 21.4x | 13.8x | 14.5x | 54.8% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 4.1x | 2.2x | 4.4x | 87.8% | Overvalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0.64B | 10.9x | 5.1x | 2.2x | |
| $0.57B | 27.6x | 20.2x | 2.7x | |
| $0.46B | 0.0x | 9.1x | 1.5x | |
| $0.34B | 6.5x | 3.8x | 0.5x | |
| $0.26B | 43.5x | 21.4x | 4.1x | |
| $0.04B | 11.3x | 13.8x | 0.4x | |
| $717.41B | 41.0x | 28.1x | 19.1x |
PAYS Graham Number
Benjamin Graham's conservative valuation formula for defensive investors
Input Data
| EPS (TTM) | $0.11 | Latest 10-K |
| Book Value per Share | $0.55 | Latest 10-K Balance Sheet |
| Graham Constant | 22.5 | Benjamin Graham's formula |
Graham Number Result
$1.17
Intrinsic Value
$4.87
Current Price
-76.0%
Upside/Downside
Confidence: High
Conservative value investing approach
Calculation Breakdown
Formula:
√(22.5 × EPS × BVPS)
Step 1: Multiply constant by EPS
22.5 × 0.11 = 2.49
Step 2: Multiply by Book Value per Share
2.49 × 0.55 = 1.36
Step 3: Take square root
√1.36 = 1.17
Graham Number Result:
$1.17
PAYS Graham Intrinsic Value
Growth-adjusted intrinsic value with two formula variants
Formula Selection
V = EPS × (8.5 + 2g)
Graham's original P/E shortcut for growth, no interest-rate adjustment
V = [EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4] / Y
Graham's 1974 refinement: adds rate-environment sensitivity
Active Formula: Base-Growth
0.11 × (8.5 + 2 × 8.0%)
Input Data & Growth Assumptions
Current EPS (TTM)$0.11
Latest 10-K • 2024-12-31T00:00:00
No positive historical growth rates available.
Graham's formula is designed for growing companies. Use the custom input below with a conservative positive growth estimate (5-10%).
Custom
%
Enter a positive growth rate estimate (0-50%)
Graham Intrinsic Value Result
$2.71
Intrinsic Value
$4.87
Current Price
-44.4%
Upside/Downside
Base Formula
Growth: 8.0%
PAYS Peter Lynch Fair Value
Growth-based valuation using PEG ratio analysis for growth stocks
Fair Value Calculation
EPS (TTM)$0.11
Latest 10-K • 2024-12-31T00:00:00
No positive historical growth rates available. Using custom growth rate slider.
10.0%
1%50%
Fair Value Formula: EPS × Growth Rate
$0.11 × 10.0% = $1.10
$1.10
Fair Value
$4.87
Current Price
-77.3%
Upside/Downside
PEG Analysis
44.1x
Current P/E
10.0%
Growth Rate
4.41
PEG Ratio (P/E ÷ Growth Rate)
Significantly Overvalued
PEG Ratio Interpretation:
• PEG < 1.0: Undervalued (growth exceeds P/E)
• PEG = 1.0: Fairly valued (ideal Lynch ratio)
• PEG > 1.5: Overvalued (paying premium for growth)
Peter Lynch's Rule:
"The P/E ratio of any company that's fairly priced will equal its growth rate." A stock with 15% growth should trade at a P/E of 15 (PEG = 1.0).
PAYS Earnings Power Value (EPV)
Normalized earnings-based valuation for sustainable earning power assessment
Earnings Normalization
| Earnings Component | Amount ($B) | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Reported Earnings | 0.0 | Base earnings from financial statements |
| Normalized Earnings | 0.0 | Final normalized earning power |
One-time Items: Remove non-recurring gains/losses
Cyclical Adjustment: Normalize for economic cycle position
EPV Result
$0.75
EPV per Share
$4.87
Current Price
-84.5%
Upside/Downside
9.1%
WACC: 9.1% (calculated from market data)
Confidence: High
Normalized earnings approach
EPV Calculation Breakdown
Enterprise Value Calculation
| Normalized Earnings | $0.0B |
| Cost of Capital | 9.1% |
| Enterprise Value | $0.0B |
Per Share Value
| Enterprise Value | $0.0B |
| Shares Outstanding | 0.1B |
| EPV per Share | $0.75 |
WACC Components
| Cost of Equity | 9.2% |
| After-Tax Cost of Debt | 3.5% |
| Equity Weight | 98.9% |
| Debt Weight | 1.1% |
| WACC | 9.1% |