Complete RVYL Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
RVYL DCF Analysis
RVYL (Ryvyl Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $32.9M | $65.9M | $56.0M | $70.0M | $87.5M | $109.4M | $136.7M | $170.9M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 100.2% | -15.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| EBIT | $-37.8M | $-12.3M | $-20.9M | $3.5M | $4.4M | $5.5M | $6.8M | $8.5M |
| EBIT Margin % | -115.0% | -18.7% | -37.3% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| NOPAT | $-28.4M | $-9.2M | $-15.7M | $2.6M | $3.3M | $4.1M | $5.1M | $6.4M |
| NOPAT Margin % | -86.2% | -14.0% | -28.0% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% |
| Capex | $162.3K | $108.0K | $47.0K | $700.0K | $875.0K | $1.1M | $1.4M | $1.7M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% |
| Depreciation | $20.9M | $2.6M | $2.3M | $16.7M | $20.8M | $26.1M | $32.6M | $40.7M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 63.6% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 23.8% | 23.8% | 23.8% | 23.8% | 23.8% |
| Change in NWC | $-66.4M | $-18.2M | $-12.5M | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | -201.7% | -27.6% | -22.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Unlevered FCF | $58.8M | $11.4M | $-965.8K | $18.6M | $23.3M | $29.1M | $36.3M | $45.4M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | -80.6% | -108.5% | 2026.2% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| FCF / Revenue % | 178.6% | 17.3% | -1.7% | 26.6% | 26.6% | 26.6% | 26.6% | 26.6% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.916 | 0.840 | 0.769 | 0.705 | 0.646 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $17.0M | $19.5M | $22.4M | $25.6M | $29.3M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $17.0M | $36.6M | $58.9M | $84.5M | $113.9M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 6.9% |
| Tax Rate | 25.0% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.2% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.40% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 4.03 |
| Cost of Equity | 21.8% |
| Total Debt | $21.1M |
| Market Cap | $6.6M |
| Total Capital | $27.6M |
| Debt Weighting | 76.3% |
| Equity Weighting | 23.7% |
| WACC | 9.1% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $45.4M |
| Terminal Value | $701.9M |
| PV of Terminal Value | $453.5M |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $113.9M |
| Net Debt | $18.5M |
| Equity Value | $548.9M |
| Shares Outstanding | 6.7M |
| Implied Share Price | $82 |
| Current Share Price | $1 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | +10355.9% |
Valuation Summary
$82.00
Implied Price
$0.78
Current Price
+10355.9%
Upside/Downside
9.1%
WACC
RVYL Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 5 peer companies in Technology
P/E Ratio
$-142.96
-18329.9%
Peer Median: 41.0x
EV/EBITDA
$0.00
-100.0%
Peer Median: 25.5x
P/S Ratio
$2.96
+277.5%
Peer Median: 0.4x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for RVYL's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | RVYL Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -0.2x | 41.0x | 26.1x | -100.5% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | Infinityx | 25.5x | 22.4x | Infinity% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 0.1x | 0.4x | 4.1x | -73.5% | Undervalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0.04B | 11.2x | 13.7x | 0.4x | |
| $0.04B | 0.0x | 25.5x | 0.3x | |
| $0.01B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.1x | |
| $0.01B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.5x | |
| $717.57B | 41.0x | 28.1x | 19.1x |