Complete TRUE Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
TRUE DCF Analysis
TRUE (TrueCar, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $161.5M | $158.7M | $175.6M | $168.6M | $162.5M | $157.2M | $152.6M | $148.6M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | -1.7% | 10.6% | -4.0% | -3.6% | -3.2% | -2.9% | -2.6% |
| EBIT | $-6.1M | $-56.5M | $-37.2M | $8.4M | $8.1M | $7.9M | $7.6M | $7.4M |
| EBIT Margin % | -3.8% | -35.6% | -21.2% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| NOPAT | $-4.6M | $-42.4M | $-27.9M | $6.3M | $6.1M | $5.9M | $5.7M | $5.6M |
| NOPAT Margin % | -2.9% | -26.7% | -15.9% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% |
| Capex | $11.7M | $11.8M | $7.9M | $9.3M | $8.5M | $7.8M | $7.2M | $6.6M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 7.2% | 7.4% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 4.5% |
| Depreciation | $20.5M | $20.7M | $19.0M | $20.5M | $19.8M | $19.1M | $18.6M | $18.1M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 12.7% | 13.0% | 10.8% | 12.2% | 12.2% | 12.2% | 12.2% | 12.2% |
| Change in NWC | $-71.4M | $-33.0M | $-31.9M | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | -44.2% | -20.8% | -18.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Unlevered FCF | $75.6M | $-526.3K | $15.1M | $17.6M | $17.4M | $17.2M | $17.1M | $17.0M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | -100.7% | 2975.4% | 16.2% | -1.1% | -0.9% | -0.7% | -0.6% |
| FCF / Revenue % | 46.8% | -0.3% | 8.6% | 10.4% | 10.7% | 11.0% | 11.2% | 11.5% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.887 | 0.786 | 0.697 | 0.618 | 0.548 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $15.6M | $13.7M | $12.0M | $10.6M | $9.3M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $15.6M | $29.3M | $41.3M | $51.9M | $61.2M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 7.4% |
| Tax Rate | 25.0% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.6% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.40% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 2.09 |
| Cost of Equity | 13.4% |
| Total Debt | $11.3M |
| Market Cap | $124.9M |
| Total Capital | $136.2M |
| Debt Weighting | 8.3% |
| Equity Weighting | 91.7% |
| WACC | 12.8% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $17.0M |
| Terminal Value | $169.5M |
| PV of Terminal Value | $92.8M |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $61.2M |
| Net Debt | $-100.6M |
| Equity Value | $254.6M |
| Shares Outstanding | 90.2M |
| Implied Share Price | $3 |
| Current Share Price | $1 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | +98.2% |
Valuation Summary
$2.82
Implied Price
$1.43
Current Price
+98.2%
Upside/Downside
12.8%
WACC
TRUE Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 7 peer companies in Communication Services
P/E Ratio
$-5.41
-479.4%
Peer Median: 13.4x
EV/EBITDA
$0.00
-100.0%
Peer Median: 14.2x
P/S Ratio
$1.73
+21.7%
Peer Median: 0.8x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for TRUE's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | TRUE Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -3.5x | 13.4x | 13.0x | -126.4% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | Infinityx | 14.2x | 13.3x | Infinity% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 0.7x | 0.8x | 2.0x | -17.9% | Fair Value |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0.26B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.3x | |
| $0.15B | 13.4x | 8.3x | 1.8x | |
| $0.12B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.7x | |
| $0.11B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 4.2x | |
| $0.12B | 0.0x | 17.5x | 0.8x | |
| $0.08B | 6.5x | 0.0x | 0.4x | |
| $2122.06B | 19.3x | 14.2x | 5.9x |