Complete PSQH Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
PSQH DCF Analysis
PSQH (PSQ Holdings, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $475.2K | $5.7M | $23.2M | $29.0M | $36.2M | $45.3M | $56.6M | $70.8M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 1096.6% | 308.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| EBIT | $-7.1M | $-39.3M | $-55.7M | $1.4M | $1.8M | $2.3M | $2.8M | $3.5M |
| EBIT Margin % | -1493.5% | -692.0% | -240.1% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 18.8% | 19.4% | 20.0% | 20.6% | 21.3% |
| NOPAT | $-5.3M | $-29.5M | $-41.8M | $1.2M | $1.5M | $1.8M | $2.2M | $2.8M |
| NOPAT Margin % | -1120.1% | -519.0% | -180.1% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.9% |
| Capex | $1.6M | $3.5M | $0 | $290.0K | $362.5K | $453.1K | $566.4K | $708.0K |
| Capex / Revenue % | 327.1% | 61.5% | 0.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% |
| Depreciation | $842.2K | $2.7M | $3.3M | $23.0M | $28.8M | $36.0M | $44.9M | $56.2M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 177.2% | 46.8% | 14.0% | 79.3% | 79.3% | 79.3% | 79.3% | 79.3% |
| Change in NWC | $1.7M | $15.2M | $21.0M | $290.0K | $362.5K | $453.1K | $566.4K | $708.0K |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | 349.3% | 267.9% | 90.7% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% |
| Unlevered FCF | $-7.7M | $-45.6M | $-59.6M | $23.6M | $29.5M | $36.9M | $46.1M | $57.6M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | -492.4% | -30.7% | 139.6% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| FCF / Revenue % | -1619.2% | -801.7% | -256.8% | 81.4% | 81.4% | 81.3% | 81.3% | 81.3% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.956 | 0.913 | 0.873 | 0.834 | 0.797 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $22.6M | $26.9M | $32.2M | $38.4M | $45.9M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $22.6M | $49.5M | $81.7M | $120.1M | $166.0M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 6.9% |
| Tax Rate | 18.8% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.6% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.40% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | -0.01 |
| Cost of Equity | 4.4% |
| Total Debt | $32.5M |
| Market Cap | $109.1M |
| Total Capital | $141.6M |
| Debt Weighting | 23.0% |
| Equity Weighting | 77.0% |
| WACC | 4.6% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $57.6M |
| Terminal Value | $2.8B |
| PV of Terminal Value | $2.2B |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $166.0M |
| Net Debt | $-3.8M |
| Equity Value | $2.4B |
| Shares Outstanding | 32.0M |
| Implied Share Price | $74 |
| Current Share Price | $2 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | +2986.1% |
Valuation Summary
$73.91
Implied Price
$2.40
Current Price
+2986.1%
Upside/Downside
4.6%
WACC
PSQH Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 7 peer companies in Technology
P/E Ratio
$-15.50
-747.3%
Peer Median: 13.4x
EV/EBITDA
$0.00
-100.0%
Peer Median: 14.0x
P/S Ratio
$0.49
-79.4%
Peer Median: 0.8x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for PSQH's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | PSQH Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -2.1x | 13.4x | 13.0x | -115.4% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | Infinityx | 14.0x | 13.3x | Infinity% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 4.1x | 0.8x | 2.0x | 385.4% | Overvalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0.15B | 13.4x | 8.3x | 1.8x | |
| $0.12B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.7x | |
| $0.11B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 4.1x | |
| $0.12B | 0.0x | 17.5x | 0.8x | |
| $0.08B | 6.5x | 0.0x | 0.4x | |
| $0.05B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.6x | |
| $2102.57B | 19.1x | 14.0x | 5.8x |