Complete ROAD Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 6 different methodologies
ROAD DCF Analysis
ROAD (Construction Partners, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.3B | $1.6B | $1.8B | $2.2B | $2.7B | $3.2B | $3.7B | $4.3B |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 20.1% | 16.7% | 22.9% | 20.6% | 18.5% | 16.7% | 15.0% |
| EBIT | $35.4M | $81.9M | $111.2M | $112.1M | $135.1M | $160.2M | $186.9M | $218.6M |
| EBIT Margin % | 2.7% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.1% |
| Tax Rate % | 24.4% | 25.1% | 25.1% | 25.7% | 25.6% | 25.5% | 25.5% | 25.4% |
| NOPAT | $26.8M | $61.3M | $83.3M | $83.3M | $100.5M | $119.3M | $139.3M | $163.1M |
| NOPAT Margin % | 2.1% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.8% |
| Capex | $68.9M | $97.8M | $87.9M | $131.1M | $150.1M | $169.1M | $187.4M | $204.7M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 5.3% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 4.8% |
| Depreciation | $65.7M | $79.1M | $92.9M | $113.6M | $137.0M | $162.3M | $189.4M | $217.8M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.1% |
| Change in NWC | $49.0M | $3.2M | $10.3M | $-6.1M | $-5.9M | $-5.6M | $-5.2M | $-4.8M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | 3.8% | 0.2% | 0.6% | -0.3% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.1% | -0.1% |
| Unlevered FCF | $-25.3M | $39.4M | $77.9M | $71.9M | $93.2M | $118.1M | $146.5M | $180.9M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | 255.6% | 97.6% | -7.7% | 29.7% | 26.7% | 24.0% | 23.5% |
| FCF / Revenue % | -1.9% | 2.5% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.2% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.924 | 0.854 | 0.789 | 0.729 | 0.673 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $66.4M | $79.6M | $93.1M | $106.7M | $121.8M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $66.4M | $146.0M | $239.1M | $345.9M | $467.7M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 6.3% |
| Tax Rate | 25.7% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 4.7% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.35% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 0.97 |
| Cost of Equity | 8.6% |
| Total Debt | $553.3M |
| Market Cap | $5.9B |
| Total Capital | $6.5B |
| Debt Weighting | 8.5% |
| Equity Weighting | 91.5% |
| WACC | 8.2% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $180.9M |
| Terminal Value | $3.2B |
| PV of Terminal Value | $2.2B |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $467.7M |
| Net Debt | $478.6M |
| Equity Value | $2.2B |
| Shares Outstanding | 52.6M |
| Implied Share Price | $41 |
| Current Share Price | $106 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | -61.1% |
Valuation Summary
$41.16
Implied Price
$105.87
Current Price
-61.1%
Upside/Downside
8.2%
WACC
ROAD Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 11 peer companies in Industrials
P/E Ratio
$44.17
-58.3%
Peer Median: 40.1x
EV/EBITDA
$55.81
-47.3%
Peer Median: 16.5x
P/S Ratio
$77.07
-27.2%
Peer Median: 2.0x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for ROAD's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | ROAD Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 96.0x | 40.1x | 42.8x | 139.7% | Overvalued |
| EV/EBITDA | 33.7x | 16.5x | 18.3x | 105.0% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 2.7x | 2.0x | 1.9x | 37.4% | Overvalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $14.36B | 40.1x | 21.6x | 2.0x | |
| $13.46B | 63.0x | 16.5x | 1.1x | |
| $8.60B | 5.0x | 11.3x | 0.5x | |
| $7.31B | 31.9x | 15.0x | 1.6x | |
| $6.76B | 19.6x | 12.1x | 1.7x | |
| $5.93B | 96.0x | 33.7x | 2.7x | |
| $7.35B | 28.1x | 15.9x | 3.5x | |
| $6.17B | 24.9x | 16.6x | 2.0x | |
| $5.54B | 376.8x | 16.5x | 2.3x | |
| $4.40B | 56.7x | 14.4x | 1.7x | |
| $56.87B | 62.2x | 27.1x | 2.3x |
ROAD Graham Number
Benjamin Graham's conservative valuation formula for defensive investors
Input Data
| EPS (TTM) | $1.10 | Latest 10-K |
| Book Value per Share | $10.91 | Latest 10-K Balance Sheet |
| Graham Constant | 22.5 | Benjamin Graham's formula |
Graham Number Result
$16.45
Intrinsic Value
$105.87
Current Price
-84.5%
Upside/Downside
Confidence: High
Conservative value investing approach
Calculation Breakdown
Formula:
√(22.5 × EPS × BVPS)
Step 1: Multiply constant by EPS
22.5 × 1.10 = 24.81
Step 2: Multiply by Book Value per Share
24.81 × 10.91 = 270.73
Step 3: Take square root
√270.73 = 16.45
Graham Number Result:
$16.45
ROAD Graham Intrinsic Value
Growth-adjusted intrinsic value with two formula variants
Formula Selection
V = EPS × (8.5 + 2g)
Graham's original P/E shortcut for growth, no interest-rate adjustment
V = [EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4] / Y
Graham's 1974 refinement: adds rate-environment sensitivity
Active Formula: Base-Growth
1.10 × (8.5 + 2 × 50.5%)
Input Data & Growth Assumptions
Current EPS (TTM)$1.10
Latest 10-K • 2024-09-30T00:00:00
Historical 3Y50.5%
Financial statements
Historical 5Y9.6%
Financial statements
Custom
%
Enter a positive growth rate estimate (0-50%)
Graham Intrinsic Value Result
$120.78
Intrinsic Value
$105.87
Current Price
+14.1%
Upside/Downside
Base Formula
Growth: 50.5%
ROAD Peter Lynch Fair Value
Growth-based valuation using PEG ratio analysis for growth stocks
Fair Value Calculation
EPS (TTM)$1.10
Latest 10-K • 2024-09-30T00:00:00
Historical 3Y50.5%
3-year earnings growth
Historical 5Y9.6%
5-year earnings growth
50.5%
1%50%
Fair Value Formula: EPS × Growth Rate
$1.10 × 50.5% = $55.70
$55.70
Fair Value
$105.87
Current Price
-47.4%
Upside/Downside
PEG Analysis
96.0x
Current P/E
50.5%
Growth Rate
1.90
PEG Ratio (P/E ÷ Growth Rate)
Overvalued
PEG Ratio Interpretation:
• PEG < 1.0: Undervalued (growth exceeds P/E)
• PEG = 1.0: Fairly valued (ideal Lynch ratio)
• PEG > 1.5: Overvalued (paying premium for growth)
Peter Lynch's Rule:
"The P/E ratio of any company that's fairly priced will equal its growth rate." A stock with 15% growth should trade at a P/E of 15 (PEG = 1.0).
ROAD Earnings Power Value (EPV)
Normalized earnings-based valuation for sustainable earning power assessment
Earnings Normalization
| Earnings Component | Amount ($B) | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Reported Earnings | 0.1 | Base earnings from financial statements |
| Normalized Earnings | 0.1 | Final normalized earning power |
One-time Items: Remove non-recurring gains/losses
Cyclical Adjustment: Normalize for economic cycle position
EPV Result
$15.24
EPV per Share
$105.87
Current Price
-85.6%
Upside/Downside
8.6%
WACC: 8.6% (calculated from market data)
Confidence: High
Normalized earnings approach
EPV Calculation Breakdown
Enterprise Value Calculation
| Normalized Earnings | $0.1B |
| Cost of Capital | 8.6% |
| Enterprise Value | $0.8B |
Per Share Value
| Enterprise Value | $0.8B |
| Shares Outstanding | 0.1B |
| EPV per Share | $15.24 |
WACC Components
| Cost of Equity | 9.1% |
| After-Tax Cost of Debt | 3.5% |
| Equity Weight | 91.0% |
| Debt Weight | 9.0% |
| WACC | 8.6% |