Complete STRL Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 6 different methodologies
STRL DCF Analysis
STRL (Sterling Infrastructure, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.8B | $2.0B | $2.1B | $2.4B | $2.7B | $2.9B | $3.2B | $3.5B |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 11.5% | 7.3% | 12.9% | 11.6% | 10.4% | 9.4% | 8.5% |
| EBIT | $159.9M | $205.8M | $264.6M | $254.6M | $286.8M | $319.7M | $353.0M | $386.4M |
| EBIT Margin % | 9.0% | 10.4% | 12.5% | 10.7% | 10.8% | 10.9% | 11.0% | 11.1% |
| Tax Rate % | 29.8% | 25.1% | 24.4% | 27.6% | 27.3% | 27.1% | 26.8% | 26.6% |
| NOPAT | $112.3M | $154.2M | $200.1M | $184.4M | $208.4M | $233.2M | $258.4M | $283.8M |
| NOPAT Margin % | 6.3% | 7.8% | 9.5% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 8.1% |
| Capex | $60.9M | $64.4M | $81.0M | $78.9M | $83.6M | $87.8M | $91.2M | $94.0M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 3.4% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 2.7% |
| Depreciation | $52.1M | $57.4M | $68.4M | $72.3M | $80.7M | $89.2M | $97.6M | $105.8M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% |
| Change in NWC | $67.7M | $19.2M | $110.1M | $62.4M | $55.7M | $49.2M | $43.1M | $37.4M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | 3.8% | 1.0% | 5.2% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.1% |
| Unlevered FCF | $35.7M | $128.1M | $77.4M | $115.4M | $149.8M | $185.4M | $221.7M | $258.3M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | 258.3% | -39.5% | 49.1% | 29.8% | 23.7% | 19.6% | 16.5% |
| FCF / Revenue % | 2.0% | 6.5% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.4% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.909 | 0.826 | 0.751 | 0.683 | 0.621 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $104.9M | $123.8M | $139.3M | $151.4M | $160.3M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $104.9M | $228.8M | $368.0M | $519.4M | $679.8M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 6.3% |
| Tax Rate | 27.6% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 4.6% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.35% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 1.37 |
| Cost of Equity | 10.3% |
| Total Debt | $369.3M |
| Market Cap | $7.4B |
| Total Capital | $7.7B |
| Debt Weighting | 4.8% |
| Equity Weighting | 95.2% |
| WACC | 10.0% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $258.3M |
| Terminal Value | $3.5B |
| PV of Terminal Value | $2.2B |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $679.8M |
| Net Debt | $-294.9M |
| Equity Value | $3.2B |
| Shares Outstanding | 31.1M |
| Implied Share Price | $102 |
| Current Share Price | $242 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | -58.0% |
Valuation Summary
$101.64
Implied Price
$241.74
Current Price
-58.0%
Upside/Downside
10.0%
WACC
STRL Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 11 peer companies in Industrials
P/E Ratio
$284.83
+17.8%
Peer Median: 33.1x
EV/EBITDA
$232.04
-4.0%
Peer Median: 15.9x
P/S Ratio
$116.94
-51.6%
Peer Median: 1.7x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for STRL's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | STRL Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 28.1x | 33.1x | 42.1x | -15.1% | Fair Value |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.9x | 15.9x | 17.4x | 0.0% | Fair Value |
| P/S Ratio | 3.5x | 1.7x | 1.9x | 106.7% | Overvalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $13.46B | 63.0x | 16.5x | 1.1x | |
| $8.60B | 5.0x | 11.3x | 0.5x | |
| $7.31B | 31.9x | 15.0x | 1.6x | |
| $6.76B | 19.6x | 12.1x | 1.7x | |
| $5.93B | 96.0x | 33.7x | 2.7x | |
| $7.35B | 28.1x | 15.9x | 3.5x | |
| $6.17B | 24.9x | 16.6x | 2.0x | |
| $5.54B | 376.8x | 16.5x | 2.3x | |
| $4.40B | 56.7x | 14.4x | 1.7x | |
| $4.12B | 33.1x | 11.8x | 1.0x | |
| $56.87B | 62.2x | 27.1x | 2.3x |
STRL Graham Number
Benjamin Graham's conservative valuation formula for defensive investors
Input Data
| EPS (TTM) | $8.61 | Latest 10-K |
| Book Value per Share | $25.94 | Latest 10-K Balance Sheet |
| Graham Constant | 22.5 | Benjamin Graham's formula |
Graham Number Result
$70.90
Intrinsic Value
$241.74
Current Price
-70.7%
Upside/Downside
Confidence: High
Conservative value investing approach
Calculation Breakdown
Formula:
√(22.5 × EPS × BVPS)
Step 1: Multiply constant by EPS
22.5 × 8.61 = 193.73
Step 2: Multiply by Book Value per Share
193.73 × 25.94 = 5026.27
Step 3: Take square root
√5026.27 = 70.90
Graham Number Result:
$70.90
STRL Graham Intrinsic Value
Growth-adjusted intrinsic value with two formula variants
Formula Selection
V = EPS × (8.5 + 2g)
Graham's original P/E shortcut for growth, no interest-rate adjustment
V = [EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4] / Y
Graham's 1974 refinement: adds rate-environment sensitivity
Active Formula: Base-Growth
8.61 × (8.5 + 2 × 56.2%)
Input Data & Growth Assumptions
Current EPS (TTM)$8.61
Latest 10-K • 2024-12-31T00:00:00
Historical 3Y56.2%
Financial statements
Historical 5Y41.0%
Financial statements
Custom
%
Enter a positive growth rate estimate (0-50%)
Graham Intrinsic Value Result
$1041.38
Intrinsic Value
$241.74
Current Price
+330.8%
Upside/Downside
Base Formula
Growth: 56.2%
STRL Peter Lynch Fair Value
Growth-based valuation using PEG ratio analysis for growth stocks
Fair Value Calculation
EPS (TTM)$8.61
Latest 10-K • 2024-12-31T00:00:00
Historical 3Y56.2%
3-year earnings growth
Historical 5Y41.0%
5-year earnings growth
56.2%
1%50%
Fair Value Formula: EPS × Growth Rate
$8.61 × 56.2% = $484.10
$484.10
Fair Value
$241.74
Current Price
+100.3%
Upside/Downside
PEG Analysis
28.1x
Current P/E
56.2%
Growth Rate
0.50
PEG Ratio (P/E ÷ Growth Rate)
Significantly Undervalued
PEG Ratio Interpretation:
• PEG < 1.0: Undervalued (growth exceeds P/E)
• PEG = 1.0: Fairly valued (ideal Lynch ratio)
• PEG > 1.5: Overvalued (paying premium for growth)
Peter Lynch's Rule:
"The P/E ratio of any company that's fairly priced will equal its growth rate." A stock with 15% growth should trade at a P/E of 15 (PEG = 1.0).
STRL Earnings Power Value (EPV)
Normalized earnings-based valuation for sustainable earning power assessment
Earnings Normalization
| Earnings Component | Amount ($B) | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Reported Earnings | 0.3 | Base earnings from financial statements |
| Normalized Earnings | 0.3 | Final normalized earning power |
One-time Items: Remove non-recurring gains/losses
Cyclical Adjustment: Normalize for economic cycle position
EPV Result
$93.40
EPV per Share
$241.74
Current Price
-61.4%
Upside/Downside
8.9%
WACC: 8.9% (calculated from market data)
Confidence: High
Normalized earnings approach
EPV Calculation Breakdown
Enterprise Value Calculation
| Normalized Earnings | $0.3B |
| Cost of Capital | 8.9% |
| Enterprise Value | $2.9B |
Per Share Value
| Enterprise Value | $2.9B |
| Shares Outstanding | 0.0B |
| EPV per Share | $93.40 |
WACC Components
| Cost of Equity | 9.1% |
| After-Tax Cost of Debt | 3.5% |
| Equity Weight | 95.3% |
| Debt Weight | 4.7% |
| WACC | 8.9% |