Complete MTZ Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 4 different methodologies
MTZ DCF Analysis
MTZ (MasTec, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $9.8B | $12.0B | $12.3B | $14.1B | $16.1B | $18.0B | $20.0B | $21.9B |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 22.7% | 2.6% | 15.0% | 13.5% | 12.2% | 10.9% | 9.8% |
| EBIT | $155.3M | $152.0M | $436.4M | $707.5M | $803.0M | $900.6M | $999.1M | $1.1B |
| EBIT Margin % | 1.6% | 1.3% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 21.3% | 25.0% | 20.5% | 22.8% | 23.0% | 23.2% | 23.5% | 23.7% |
| NOPAT | $122.2M | $114.0M | $346.7M | $546.1M | $618.1M | $691.2M | $764.7M | $837.5M |
| NOPAT Margin % | 1.3% | 1.0% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% |
| Capex | $263.4M | $192.9M | $148.9M | $312.2M | $336.6M | $358.7M | $378.0M | $394.4M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 2.7% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 1.8% |
| Depreciation | $507.1M | $603.2M | $506.6M | $676.0M | $767.3M | $860.5M | $954.6M | $1.0B |
| D&A / Revenue % | 5.2% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.8% |
| Change in NWC | $273.7M | $-226.1M | $-484.2M | $-33.7M | $-30.6M | $-27.4M | $-24.4M | $-21.4M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | 2.8% | -1.9% | -3.9% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.1% | -0.1% |
| Unlevered FCF | $92.3M | $750.3M | $1.2B | $943.6M | $1.1B | $1.2B | $1.4B | $1.5B |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | 712.9% | 58.4% | -20.6% | 14.4% | 13.1% | 11.9% | 10.8% |
| FCF / Revenue % | 0.9% | 6.3% | 9.7% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.9% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.904 | 0.817 | 0.738 | 0.667 | 0.603 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $852.7M | $881.5M | $900.8M | $910.8M | $912.0M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $852.7M | $1.7B | $2.6B | $3.5B | $4.5B |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 5.3% |
| Tax Rate | 22.8% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 4.1% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.35% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 1.75 |
| Cost of Equity | 11.9% |
| Total Debt | $2.6B |
| Market Cap | $13.5B |
| Total Capital | $16.1B |
| Debt Weighting | 16.4% |
| Equity Weighting | 83.6% |
| WACC | 10.7% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $1.5B |
| Terminal Value | $19.0B |
| PV of Terminal Value | $11.5B |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $4.5B |
| Net Debt | $2.2B |
| Equity Value | $13.7B |
| Shares Outstanding | 78.9M |
| Implied Share Price | $174 |
| Current Share Price | $171 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | +1.8% |
Valuation Summary
$173.53
Implied Price
$170.54
Current Price
+1.8%
Upside/Downside
10.7%
WACC
MTZ Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 10 peer companies in Industrials
P/E Ratio
$87.45
-48.7%
Peer Median: 32.3x
EV/EBITDA
$198.82
+16.6%
Peer Median: 16.5x
P/S Ratio
$262.56
+54.0%
Peer Median: 1.7x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for MTZ's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | MTZ Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 63.0x | 32.3x | 39.9x | 95.0% | Overvalued |
| EV/EBITDA | 16.5x | 16.5x | 18.8x | 0.0% | Fair Value |
| P/S Ratio | 1.1x | 1.7x | 1.7x | -35.0% | Undervalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $56.87B | 62.2x | 27.1x | 2.3x | |
| $24.89B | 24.5x | 15.6x | 1.7x | |
| $19.07B | 32.3x | 20.6x | 2.6x | |
| $15.22B | 24.9x | 14.5x | 0.9x | |
| $14.36B | 40.1x | 21.6x | 2.0x | |
| $13.46B | 63.0x | 16.5x | 1.1x | |
| $8.60B | 5.0x | 11.3x | 0.5x | |
| $7.31B | 31.9x | 15.0x | 1.6x | |
| $6.76B | 19.6x | 12.1x | 1.7x | |
| $5.93B | 96.0x | 33.7x | 2.7x |
MTZ Graham Number
Benjamin Graham's conservative valuation formula for defensive investors
Input Data
| EPS (TTM) | $2.71 | Latest 10-K |
| Book Value per Share | $36.92 | Latest 10-K Balance Sheet |
| Graham Constant | 22.5 | Benjamin Graham's formula |
Graham Number Result
$47.40
Intrinsic Value
$170.54
Current Price
-72.2%
Upside/Downside
Confidence: High
Conservative value investing approach
Calculation Breakdown
Formula:
√(22.5 × EPS × BVPS)
Step 1: Multiply constant by EPS
22.5 × 2.71 = 60.87
Step 2: Multiply by Book Value per Share
60.87 × 36.92 = 2247.11
Step 3: Take square root
√2247.11 = 47.40
Graham Number Result:
$47.40
MTZ Earnings Power Value (EPV)
Normalized earnings-based valuation for sustainable earning power assessment
Earnings Normalization
| Earnings Component | Amount ($B) | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Reported Earnings | 0.2 | Base earnings from financial statements |
| Normalized Earnings | 0.2 | Final normalized earning power |
One-time Items: Remove non-recurring gains/losses
Cyclical Adjustment: Normalize for economic cycle position
EPV Result
$25.19
EPV per Share
$170.54
Current Price
-85.2%
Upside/Downside
8.2%
WACC: 8.2% (calculated from market data)
Confidence: High
Normalized earnings approach
EPV Calculation Breakdown
Enterprise Value Calculation
| Normalized Earnings | $0.2B |
| Cost of Capital | 8.2% |
| Enterprise Value | $2.0B |
Per Share Value
| Enterprise Value | $2.0B |
| Shares Outstanding | 0.1B |
| EPV per Share | $25.19 |
WACC Components
| Cost of Equity | 9.1% |
| After-Tax Cost of Debt | 3.5% |
| Equity Weight | 83.6% |
| Debt Weight | 16.4% |
| WACC | 8.2% |