Complete APG Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 6 different methodologies
APG DCF Analysis
APG (APi Group Corporation) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $6.6B | $6.9B | $7.0B | $8.2B | $9.4B | $10.6B | $11.9B | $13.2B |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 5.6% | 1.3% | 16.5% | 14.8% | 13.4% | 12.0% | 10.8% |
| EBIT | $162.0M | $359.0M | $484.0M | $408.7M | $469.4M | $537.3M | $613.8M | $693.5M |
| EBIT Margin % | 2.5% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.2% |
| Tax Rate % | 21.5% | 34.1% | 24.2% | 29.1% | 28.7% | 28.2% | 27.8% | 27.4% |
| NOPAT | $127.2M | $236.8M | $366.7M | $290.0M | $334.9M | $385.6M | $442.9M | $503.2M |
| NOPAT Margin % | 1.9% | 3.4% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 3.8% |
| Capex | $79.0M | $86.0M | $84.0M | $99.7M | $108.8M | $117.1M | $124.7M | $132.1M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.0% |
| Depreciation | $304.0M | $303.0M | $302.0M | $362.8M | $416.6M | $472.2M | $529.0M | $586.2M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 4.6% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.4% |
| Change in NWC | $-1.0B | $44.0M | $-2.0M | $16.5M | $15.2M | $13.8M | $12.3M | $10.9M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | -15.7% | 0.6% | -0.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Unlevered FCF | $1.4B | $409.8M | $586.7M | $536.5M | $627.5M | $726.9M | $834.9M | $946.3M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | -70.3% | 43.2% | -8.6% | 17.0% | 15.8% | 14.9% | 13.3% |
| FCF / Revenue % | 21.0% | 5.9% | 8.4% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.2% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.909 | 0.827 | 0.752 | 0.683 | 0.621 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $487.8M | $518.8M | $546.3M | $570.6M | $588.0M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $487.8M | $1.0B | $1.6B | $2.1B | $2.7B |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 5.4% |
| Tax Rate | 29.1% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 3.9% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.43% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 1.58 |
| Cost of Equity | 11.3% |
| Total Debt | $3.0B |
| Market Cap | $14.4B |
| Total Capital | $17.4B |
| Debt Weighting | 17.5% |
| Equity Weighting | 82.5% |
| WACC | 10.0% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $946.3M |
| Terminal Value | $13.0B |
| PV of Terminal Value | $8.1B |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $2.7B |
| Net Debt | $2.5B |
| Equity Value | $8.2B |
| Shares Outstanding | 267.7M |
| Implied Share Price | $31 |
| Current Share Price | $35 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | -11.0% |
Valuation Summary
$30.75
Implied Price
$34.56
Current Price
-11.0%
Upside/Downside
10.0%
WACC
APG Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 10 peer companies in Industrials
P/E Ratio
$28.08
-18.7%
Peer Median: 32.5x
EV/EBITDA
$31.39
-9.2%
Peer Median: 16.7x
P/S Ratio
$28.59
-17.3%
Peer Median: 1.7x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for APG's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | APG Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 40.0x | 32.5x | 40.1x | 23.1% | Overvalued |
| EV/EBITDA | 21.6x | 16.7x | 18.9x | 29.5% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 2.0x | 1.7x | 1.7x | 20.9% | Overvalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $57.43B | 62.9x | 27.3x | 2.3x | |
| $24.96B | 24.5x | 15.6x | 1.7x | |
| $19.19B | 32.5x | 20.7x | 2.6x | |
| $15.21B | 24.8x | 14.4x | 0.9x | |
| $14.35B | 40.0x | 21.6x | 2.0x | |
| $13.59B | 63.7x | 16.7x | 1.1x | |
| $8.87B | 5.1x | 11.8x | 0.5x | |
| $7.35B | 32.1x | 15.0x | 1.7x | |
| $6.69B | 19.4x | 12.0x | 1.6x | |
| $5.94B | 96.1x | 33.8x | 2.7x |
APG Graham Number
Benjamin Graham's conservative valuation formula for defensive investors
Input Data
| EPS (TTM) | $0.86 | Latest 10-K |
| Book Value per Share | $11.03 | Latest 10-K Balance Sheet |
| Graham Constant | 22.5 | Benjamin Graham's formula |
Graham Number Result
$14.64
Intrinsic Value
$34.56
Current Price
-57.6%
Upside/Downside
Confidence: High
Conservative value investing approach
Calculation Breakdown
Formula:
√(22.5 × EPS × BVPS)
Step 1: Multiply constant by EPS
22.5 × 0.86 = 19.42
Step 2: Multiply by Book Value per Share
19.42 × 11.03 = 214.29
Step 3: Take square root
√214.29 = 14.64
Graham Number Result:
$14.64
APG Graham Intrinsic Value
Growth-adjusted intrinsic value with two formula variants
Formula Selection
V = EPS × (8.5 + 2g)
Graham's original P/E shortcut for growth, no interest-rate adjustment
V = [EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4] / Y
Graham's 1974 refinement: adds rate-environment sensitivity
Active Formula: Base-Growth
0.86 × (8.5 + 2 × 8.0%)
Input Data & Growth Assumptions
Current EPS (TTM)$0.86
Latest 10-K • 2024-12-31T00:00:00
No positive historical growth rates available.
Graham's formula is designed for growing companies. Use the custom input below with a conservative positive growth estimate (5-10%).
Custom
%
Enter a positive growth rate estimate (0-50%)
Graham Intrinsic Value Result
$21.15
Intrinsic Value
$34.56
Current Price
-38.8%
Upside/Downside
Base Formula
Growth: 8.0%
APG Peter Lynch Fair Value
Growth-based valuation using PEG ratio analysis for growth stocks
Fair Value Calculation
EPS (TTM)$0.86
Latest 10-K • 2024-12-31T00:00:00
No positive historical growth rates available. Using custom growth rate slider.
10.0%
1%50%
Fair Value Formula: EPS × Growth Rate
$0.86 × 10.0% = $8.63
$8.63
Fair Value
$34.56
Current Price
-75.0%
Upside/Downside
PEG Analysis
40.0x
Current P/E
10.0%
Growth Rate
4.00
PEG Ratio (P/E ÷ Growth Rate)
Significantly Overvalued
PEG Ratio Interpretation:
• PEG < 1.0: Undervalued (growth exceeds P/E)
• PEG = 1.0: Fairly valued (ideal Lynch ratio)
• PEG > 1.5: Overvalued (paying premium for growth)
Peter Lynch's Rule:
"The P/E ratio of any company that's fairly priced will equal its growth rate." A stock with 15% growth should trade at a P/E of 15 (PEG = 1.0).
APG Earnings Power Value (EPV)
Normalized earnings-based valuation for sustainable earning power assessment
Earnings Normalization
| Earnings Component | Amount ($B) | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Reported Earnings | 0.3 | Base earnings from financial statements |
| Normalized Earnings | 0.3 | Final normalized earning power |
One-time Items: Remove non-recurring gains/losses
Cyclical Adjustment: Normalize for economic cycle position
EPV Result
$12.00
EPV per Share
$34.56
Current Price
-65.3%
Upside/Downside
7.8%
WACC: 7.8% (calculated from market data)
Confidence: High
Normalized earnings approach
EPV Calculation Breakdown
Enterprise Value Calculation
| Normalized Earnings | $0.3B |
| Cost of Capital | 7.8% |
| Enterprise Value | $3.2B |
Per Share Value
| Enterprise Value | $3.2B |
| Shares Outstanding | 0.3B |
| EPV per Share | $12.00 |
WACC Components
| Cost of Equity | 9.2% |
| After-Tax Cost of Debt | 3.5% |
| Equity Weight | 75.3% |
| Debt Weight | 24.7% |
| WACC | 7.8% |