Complete QMCO Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
QMCO DCF Analysis
QMCO (Quantum Corporation) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $372.8M | $412.8M | $311.6M | $291.1M | $273.8M | $259.2M | $246.8M | $236.1M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 10.7% | -24.5% | -6.6% | -5.9% | -5.3% | -4.8% | -4.3% |
| EBIT | $-13.8M | $-26.0M | $-28.9M | $14.6M | $13.7M | $13.0M | $12.3M | $11.8M |
| EBIT Margin % | -3.7% | -6.3% | -9.3% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| NOPAT | $-10.4M | $-19.5M | $-21.7M | $10.9M | $10.3M | $9.7M | $9.3M | $8.9M |
| NOPAT Margin % | -2.8% | -4.7% | -7.0% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% |
| Capex | $6.3M | $12.6M | $5.9M | $5.4M | $4.8M | $4.3M | $3.9M | $3.6M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 1.7% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.5% |
| Depreciation | $9.4M | $10.1M | $9.3M | $7.7M | $7.3M | $6.9M | $6.6M | $6.3M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.7% |
| Change in NWC | $-9.6M | $13.1M | $-118.6M | $4.5M | $3.4M | $2.5M | $1.9M | $1.5M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | -2.6% | 3.2% | -38.1% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.6% |
| Unlevered FCF | $2.3M | $-35.0M | $100.4M | $8.8M | $9.4M | $9.7M | $9.9M | $10.1M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | -1613.2% | 386.5% | -91.3% | 6.5% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 1.3% |
| FCF / Revenue % | 0.6% | -8.5% | 32.2% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.3% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.915 | 0.837 | 0.765 | 0.700 | 0.640 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $8.0M | $7.8M | $7.4M | $7.0M | $6.4M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $8.0M | $15.9M | $23.3M | $30.3M | $36.7M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 6.9% |
| Tax Rate | 25.0% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.2% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.40% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 2.79 |
| Cost of Equity | 16.5% |
| Total Debt | $120.0M |
| Market Cap | $70.1M |
| Total Capital | $190.1M |
| Debt Weighting | 63.1% |
| Equity Weighting | 36.9% |
| WACC | 9.3% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $10.1M |
| Terminal Value | $151.1M |
| PV of Terminal Value | $96.7M |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $36.7M |
| Net Debt | $94.3M |
| Equity Value | $39.1M |
| Shares Outstanding | 4.8M |
| Implied Share Price | $8 |
| Current Share Price | $11 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | -23.4% |
Valuation Summary
$8.23
Implied Price
$10.74
Current Price
-23.4%
Upside/Downside
9.3%
WACC
QMCO Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 9 peer companies in Technology
P/E Ratio
$-449.91
-4289.1%
Peer Median: 17.7x
EV/EBITDA
$0.00
-100.0%
Peer Median: 9.3x
P/S Ratio
$22.12
+106.0%
Peer Median: 0.5x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for QMCO's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | QMCO Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -0.4x | 17.7x | 15.9x | -102.4% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | Infinityx | 9.3x | 9.9x | Infinity% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 0.2x | 0.5x | 1.4x | -51.4% | Undervalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0.47B | 7.4x | 9.3x | 0.4x | |
| $0.25B | 2.9x | 1.1x | 0.2x | |
| $0.25B | 14.0x | 4.7x | 0.5x | |
| $0.27B | 17.7x | 8.6x | 0.7x | |
| $0.07B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.2x | |
| $0.07B | 22.1x | 13.3x | 0.5x | |
| $0.07B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 1.3x | |
| $0.04B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.8x | |
| $3034.51B | 31.4x | 22.4x | 7.6x |