Complete ALOT Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 3 different methodologies
ALOT DCF Analysis
ALOT (AstroNova, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Historical) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) | 2030 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $142.5M | $148.1M | $151.3M | $161.0M | $170.3M | $179.2M | $187.6M | $195.5M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 3.9% | 2.2% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 4.2% |
| EBIT | $1.6M | $8.8M | $-8.6M | $8.0M | $8.5M | $9.0M | $9.4M | $9.8M |
| EBIT Margin % | 1.2% | 5.9% | -5.7% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 22.0% | 22.7% | 25.0% | 23.9% | 24.0% | 24.1% | 24.2% | 24.3% |
| NOPAT | $1.3M | $6.8M | $-6.5M | $6.1M | $6.5M | $6.8M | $7.1M | $7.4M |
| NOPAT Margin % | 0.9% | 4.6% | -4.3% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% |
| Capex | $229.0K | $875.0K | $1.2M | $1.7M | $1.7M | $1.8M | $1.9M | $2.0M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% |
| Depreciation | $3.9M | $4.3M | $4.8M | $4.7M | $5.0M | $5.2M | $5.5M | $5.7M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% |
| Change in NWC | $-1.4M | $4.5M | $-15.3M | $2.2M | $1.9M | $1.6M | $1.3M | $1.1M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | -1.0% | 3.1% | -10.1% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.6% |
| Unlevered FCF | $6.4M | $5.6M | $12.5M | $6.9M | $7.9M | $8.7M | $9.4M | $10.1M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | -11.2% | 121.2% | -44.5% | 13.7% | 10.1% | 8.4% | 7.0% |
| FCF / Revenue % | 4.5% | 3.8% | 8.2% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.1% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.939 | 0.881 | 0.827 | 0.777 | 0.729 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $6.5M | $6.9M | $7.2M | $7.3M | $7.3M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $6.5M | $13.5M | $20.6M | $27.9M | $35.3M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 6.9% |
| Tax Rate | 23.9% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.3% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.40% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 0.69 |
| Cost of Equity | 7.4% |
| Total Debt | $48.5M |
| Market Cap | $71.2M |
| Total Capital | $119.7M |
| Debt Weighting | 40.5% |
| Equity Weighting | 59.5% |
| WACC | 6.5% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $10.1M |
| Terminal Value | $256.6M |
| PV of Terminal Value | $187.1M |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $35.3M |
| Net Debt | $48.5M |
| Equity Value | $173.9M |
| Shares Outstanding | 7.5M |
| Implied Share Price | $23 |
| Current Share Price | $9 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | +147.0% |
Valuation Summary
$23.16
Implied Price
$9.38
Current Price
+147.0%
Upside/Downside
6.5%
WACC
ALOT Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 8 peer companies in Technology
P/E Ratio
$-42.41
-552.4%
Peer Median: 22.1x
EV/EBITDA
$15.41
+64.3%
Peer Median: 13.3x
P/S Ratio
$13.44
+43.4%
Peer Median: 0.7x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for ALOT's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | ALOT Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -4.9x | 22.1x | 21.0x | -122.1% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.6x | 13.3x | 12.1x | 2.3% | Fair Value |
| P/S Ratio | 0.5x | 0.7x | 1.5x | -30.3% | Undervalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0.25B | 13.8x | 4.7x | 0.5x | |
| $0.26B | 17.0x | 8.3x | 0.7x | |
| $0.07B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.2x | |
| $0.07B | 22.1x | 13.3x | 0.5x | |
| $0.07B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 1.2x | |
| $0.04B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.8x | |
| $0.03B | 0.0x | 101.7x | 0.6x | |
| $2996.57B | 31.0x | 22.1x | 7.5x |
ALOT Earnings Power Value (EPV)
Normalized earnings-based valuation for sustainable earning power assessment
Earnings Normalization
| Earnings Component | Amount ($B) | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Reported Earnings | -0.0 | Base earnings from financial statements |
| Normalized Earnings | -0.0 | Final normalized earning power |
One-time Items: Remove non-recurring gains/losses
Cyclical Adjustment: Normalize for economic cycle position
EPV Result
$-28.17
EPV per Share
$9.38
Current Price
-400.5%
Upside/Downside
6.8%
WACC: 6.8% (calculated from market data)
Confidence: High
Normalized earnings approach
EPV Calculation Breakdown
Enterprise Value Calculation
| Normalized Earnings | $-0.0B |
| Cost of Capital | 6.8% |
| Enterprise Value | $-0.2B |
Per Share Value
| Enterprise Value | $-0.2B |
| Shares Outstanding | 0.0B |
| EPV per Share | $-28.17 |
WACC Components
| Cost of Equity | 9.2% |
| After-Tax Cost of Debt | 3.5% |
| Equity Weight | 59.2% |
| Debt Weight | 40.8% |
| WACC | 6.8% |