Complete OSS Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
OSS DCF Analysis
OSS (One Stop Systems, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $72.4M | $60.9M | $54.7M | $52.8M | $51.1M | $49.6M | $48.3M | $47.2M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | -15.9% | -10.2% | -3.5% | -3.2% | -2.9% | -2.6% | -2.3% |
| EBIT | $1.6M | $-2.3M | $-13.4M | $2.6M | $2.6M | $2.5M | $2.4M | $2.4M |
| EBIT Margin % | 2.2% | -3.8% | -24.4% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 50.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 29.1% | 28.7% | 28.3% | 27.9% | 27.5% |
| NOPAT | $784.2K | $-1.7M | $-10.0M | $1.9M | $1.8M | $1.8M | $1.7M | $1.7M |
| NOPAT Margin % | 1.1% | -2.8% | -18.3% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.6% |
| Capex | $529.9K | $821.8K | $362.7K | $552.4K | $510.8K | $496.2K | $483.4K | $472.2K |
| Capex / Revenue % | 0.7% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% |
| Depreciation | $1.1M | $1.1M | $1.4M | $1.0M | $990.0K | $961.6K | $936.8K | $915.1K |
| D&A / Revenue % | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.9% |
| Change in NWC | $6.8M | $826.8K | $-11.6M | $1.9M | $1.5M | $1.1M | $885.7K | $692.1K |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | 9.4% | 1.4% | -21.1% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 1.5% |
| Unlevered FCF | $-5.5M | $-2.3M | $2.6M | $451.9K | $837.6K | $1.1M | $1.3M | $1.5M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | 58.3% | 213.7% | -82.7% | 85.3% | 32.3% | 18.3% | 11.6% |
| FCF / Revenue % | -7.6% | -3.8% | 4.8% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 3.1% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.915 | 0.837 | 0.765 | 0.700 | 0.641 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $413.4K | $700.9K | $848.1K | $917.8K | $937.2K |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $413.4K | $1.1M | $2.0M | $2.9M | $3.8M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 6.9% |
| Tax Rate | 29.1% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 4.9% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.37% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 1.19 |
| Cost of Equity | 9.5% |
| Total Debt | $2.8M |
| Market Cap | $65.6M |
| Total Capital | $68.5M |
| Debt Weighting | 4.1% |
| Equity Weighting | 95.9% |
| WACC | 9.3% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $1.5M |
| Terminal Value | $22.0M |
| PV of Terminal Value | $14.1M |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $3.8M |
| Net Debt | $-4.0M |
| Equity Value | $21.9M |
| Shares Outstanding | 21.0M |
| Implied Share Price | $1 |
| Current Share Price | $3 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | -65.7% |
Valuation Summary
$1.04
Implied Price
$3.04
Current Price
-65.7%
Upside/Downside
9.3%
WACC
OSS Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 7 peer companies in Technology
P/E Ratio
$-14.76
-585.5%
Peer Median: 22.1x
EV/EBITDA
$0.00
-100.0%
Peer Median: 13.3x
P/S Ratio
$1.71
-43.7%
Peer Median: 0.7x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for OSS's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | OSS Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -4.5x | 22.1x | 23.4x | -120.6% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | Infinityx | 13.3x | 14.6x | Infinity% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 1.2x | 0.7x | 1.6x | 77.7% | Overvalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0.26B | 17.2x | 8.4x | 0.7x | |
| $0.07B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.2x | |
| $0.07B | 22.1x | 13.3x | 0.5x | |
| $0.07B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 1.2x | |
| $0.04B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.8x | |
| $0.03B | 0.0x | 101.7x | 0.5x | |
| $2998.51B | 31.1x | 22.1x | 7.5x |