Complete PMTS Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 5 different methodologies
PMTS DCF Analysis
PMTS (CPI Card Group Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $475.7M | $444.5M | $480.6M | $522.2M | $562.9M | $602.4M | $640.4M | $676.8M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | -6.6% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.7% |
| EBIT | $79.1M | $61.6M | $62.8M | $75.8M | $82.3M | $88.7M | $94.9M | $101.0M |
| EBIT Margin % | 16.6% | 13.9% | 13.1% | 14.5% | 14.6% | 14.7% | 14.8% | 14.9% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.7% | 30.4% | 22.0% | 22.2% | 22.5% | 22.8% | 23.1% | 23.3% |
| NOPAT | $58.8M | $42.9M | $49.0M | $59.0M | $63.8M | $68.5M | $73.0M | $77.4M |
| NOPAT Margin % | 12.4% | 9.6% | 10.2% | 11.3% | 11.3% | 11.4% | 11.4% | 11.4% |
| Capex | $17.9M | $6.4M | $9.3M | $12.6M | $12.9M | $13.1M | $13.3M | $13.3M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 3.8% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.0% |
| Depreciation | $14.9M | $15.9M | $16.4M | $17.6M | $19.0M | $20.3M | $21.6M | $22.9M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.4% |
| Change in NWC | $18.6M | $16.4M | $11.5M | $6.4M | $5.5M | $4.7M | $4.0M | $3.4M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | 3.9% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.5% |
| Unlevered FCF | $37.2M | $36.0M | $44.6M | $57.6M | $64.4M | $71.0M | $77.4M | $83.6M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | -3.2% | 23.9% | 29.1% | 11.7% | 10.3% | 9.0% | 8.0% |
| FCF / Revenue % | 7.8% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 11.0% | 11.4% | 11.8% | 12.1% | 12.3% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.928 | 0.862 | 0.800 | 0.743 | 0.689 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $53.5M | $55.5M | $56.8M | $57.5M | $57.6M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $53.5M | $109.0M | $165.7M | $223.2M | $280.8M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 7.4% |
| Tax Rate | 22.2% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.8% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.40% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 1.31 |
| Cost of Equity | 10.1% |
| Total Debt | $289.5M |
| Market Cap | $245.0M |
| Total Capital | $534.5M |
| Debt Weighting | 54.2% |
| Equity Weighting | 45.8% |
| WACC | 7.7% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $83.6M |
| Terminal Value | $1.6B |
| PV of Terminal Value | $1.1B |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $280.8M |
| Net Debt | $255.9M |
| Equity Value | $1.2B |
| Shares Outstanding | 11.9M |
| Implied Share Price | $97 |
| Current Share Price | $22 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | +347.5% |
Valuation Summary
$97.19
Implied Price
$21.72
Current Price
+347.5%
Upside/Downside
7.7%
WACC
PMTS Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 8 peer companies in Financial Services
P/E Ratio
$21.72
+0.0%
Peer Median: 13.8x
EV/EBITDA
$86.35
+297.5%
Peer Median: 9.1x
P/S Ratio
$21.72
+0.0%
Peer Median: 0.5x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for PMTS's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | PMTS Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 13.8x | 13.8x | 14.4x | 0.0% | Fair Value |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.7x | 9.1x | 16.5x | -48.6% | Undervalued |
| P/S Ratio | 0.5x | 0.5x | 1.3x | 0.0% | Fair Value |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0.96B | 0.0x | 43.9x | 0.7x | |
| $0.63B | 0.0x | 26.4x | 0.1x | |
| $0.45B | 7.1x | 9.1x | 0.4x | |
| $0.25B | 2.8x | 1.1x | 0.2x | |
| $0.25B | 13.8x | 4.7x | 0.5x | |
| $0.26B | 17.0x | 8.3x | 0.7x | |
| $0.07B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.2x | |
| $2996.57B | 31.0x | 22.1x | 7.5x |
PMTS Graham Intrinsic Value
Growth-adjusted intrinsic value with two formula variants
Formula Selection
V = EPS × (8.5 + 2g)
Graham's original P/E shortcut for growth, no interest-rate adjustment
V = [EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4] / Y
Graham's 1974 refinement: adds rate-environment sensitivity
Active Formula: Base-Growth
1.57 × (8.5 + 2 × 7.2%)
Input Data & Growth Assumptions
Current EPS (TTM)$1.57
Latest 10-K • 2024-12-31T00:00:00
Historical 3Y7.2%
Financial statements
Custom
%
Enter a positive growth rate estimate (0-50%)
Graham Intrinsic Value Result
$35.97
Intrinsic Value
$21.72
Current Price
+65.6%
Upside/Downside
Base Formula
Growth: 7.2%
PMTS Peter Lynch Fair Value
Growth-based valuation using PEG ratio analysis for growth stocks
Fair Value Calculation
EPS (TTM)$1.57
Latest 10-K • 2024-12-31T00:00:00
Historical 3Y7.2%
3-year earnings growth
7.2%
1%50%
Fair Value Formula: EPS × Growth Rate
$1.57 × 7.2% = $11.32
$11.32
Fair Value
$21.72
Current Price
-47.9%
Upside/Downside
PEG Analysis
13.8x
Current P/E
7.2%
Growth Rate
1.92
PEG Ratio (P/E ÷ Growth Rate)
Overvalued
PEG Ratio Interpretation:
• PEG < 1.0: Undervalued (growth exceeds P/E)
• PEG = 1.0: Fairly valued (ideal Lynch ratio)
• PEG > 1.5: Overvalued (paying premium for growth)
Peter Lynch's Rule:
"The P/E ratio of any company that's fairly priced will equal its growth rate." A stock with 15% growth should trade at a P/E of 15 (PEG = 1.0).
PMTS Earnings Power Value (EPV)
Normalized earnings-based valuation for sustainable earning power assessment
Earnings Normalization
| Earnings Component | Amount ($B) | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Reported Earnings | 0.0 | Base earnings from financial statements |
| Normalized Earnings | 0.0 | Final normalized earning power |
One-time Items: Remove non-recurring gains/losses
Cyclical Adjustment: Normalize for economic cycle position
EPV Result
$26.66
EPV per Share
$21.72
Current Price
+22.7%
Upside/Downside
6.2%
WACC: 6.2% (calculated from market data)
Confidence: High
Normalized earnings approach
EPV Calculation Breakdown
Enterprise Value Calculation
| Normalized Earnings | $0.0B |
| Cost of Capital | 6.2% |
| Enterprise Value | $0.3B |
Per Share Value
| Enterprise Value | $0.3B |
| Shares Outstanding | 0.0B |
| EPV per Share | $26.66 |
WACC Components
| Cost of Equity | 9.2% |
| After-Tax Cost of Debt | 3.5% |
| Equity Weight | 47.1% |
| Debt Weight | 52.9% |
| WACC | 6.2% |