Complete OVID Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
OVID DCF Analysis
OVID (Ovid Therapeutics Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.5M | $391.7K | $566.0K | $707.5K | $884.4K | $1.1M | $1.4M | $1.7M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | -73.9% | 44.5% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| EBIT | $-55.5M | $-59.3M | $-61.9M | $35.4K | $44.2K | $55.3K | $69.1K | $86.4K |
| EBIT Margin % | -3696.4% | -15134.6% | -10933.7% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 20.2% | 20.7% | 21.2% | 21.6% | 22.1% |
| NOPAT | $-41.7M | $-44.5M | $-46.4M | $28.2K | $35.1K | $43.6K | $54.1K | $67.3K |
| NOPAT Margin % | -2772.3% | -11350.9% | -8200.3% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.9% |
| Capex | $1.4M | $137.5K | $71.0K | $37.1K | $44.1K | $52.3K | $62.1K | $73.8K |
| Capex / Revenue % | 94.4% | 35.1% | 12.5% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.3% |
| Depreciation | $1.4M | $1.6M | $613.0K | $1.4M | $1.8M | $2.2M | $2.8M | $3.5M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 91.9% | 407.6% | 108.3% | 202.6% | 202.6% | 202.6% | 202.6% | 202.6% |
| Change in NWC | $-51.3M | $-26.3M | $-52.7M | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | -3413.2% | -6705.7% | -9311.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Unlevered FCF | $9.6M | $-16.7M | $6.8M | $1.4M | $1.8M | $2.2M | $2.8M | $3.5M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | -274.5% | 140.8% | -79.2% | 25.1% | 25.1% | 25.1% | 25.1% |
| FCF / Revenue % | 638.4% | -4272.8% | 1207.4% | 201.4% | 201.6% | 201.8% | 202.0% | 202.2% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.952 | 0.907 | 0.864 | 0.823 | 0.783 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $1.4M | $1.6M | $1.9M | $2.3M | $2.7M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $1.4M | $3.0M | $4.9M | $7.2M | $9.9M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 6.9% |
| Tax Rate | 20.2% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.5% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.40% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 0.07 |
| Cost of Equity | 4.7% |
| Total Debt | $14.8M |
| Market Cap | $23.1M |
| Total Capital | $37.9M |
| Debt Weighting | 38.9% |
| Equity Weighting | 61.1% |
| WACC | 5.0% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $3.5M |
| Terminal Value | $143.1M |
| PV of Terminal Value | $112.1M |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $9.9M |
| Net Debt | $-11.5M |
| Equity Value | $133.6M |
| Shares Outstanding | 70.9M |
| Implied Share Price | $2 |
| Current Share Price | $0 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | +479.2% |
Valuation Summary
$1.88
Implied Price
$0.33
Current Price
+479.2%
Upside/Downside
5.0%
WACC
OVID Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 8 peer companies in Healthcare
P/E Ratio
$-11.70
-3697.9%
Peer Median: 58.6x
EV/EBITDA
$0.00
-100.0%
Peer Median: 0.0x
P/S Ratio
$0.02
-94.7%
Peer Median: 2.2x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for OVID's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | OVID Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -1.6x | 58.6x | 29.3x | -102.8% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | Infinityx | 0.0x | 0.0x | Infinity% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 42.2x | 2.2x | 3.0x | 1783.2% | Overvalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0.03B | 206.2x | 143.3x | 0.0x | |
| $0.03B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.0x | |
| $0.03B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 2.2x | |
| $0.02B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 42.2x | |
| $0.02B | 0.1x | 0.0x | 0.7x | |
| $0.03B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 38.0x | |
| $0.02B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 8.4x | |
| $0.02B | 58.6x | 0.0x | 0.8x |