Complete LGVN Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
LGVN DCF Analysis
LGVN (Longeveron Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.2M | $709.0K | $2.4M | $3.0M | $3.7M | $4.7M | $5.8M | $7.3M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | -42.0% | 237.4% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| EBIT | $-18.0M | $-21.0M | $-16.5M | $149.5K | $186.9K | $233.6K | $292.0K | $365.0K |
| EBIT Margin % | -1476.5% | -2966.0% | -690.7% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| NOPAT | $-13.5M | $-15.8M | $-12.4M | $112.1K | $140.2K | $175.2K | $219.0K | $273.7K |
| NOPAT Margin % | -1107.4% | -2224.5% | -518.0% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% |
| Capex | $856.0K | $694.0K | $992.0K | $138.9K | $164.9K | $195.9K | $232.6K | $276.2K |
| Capex / Revenue % | 70.0% | 97.9% | 41.5% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.8% |
| Depreciation | $893.0K | $946.0K | $958.0K | $2.5M | $3.1M | $3.8M | $4.8M | $6.0M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 73.1% | 133.4% | 40.1% | 82.2% | 82.2% | 82.2% | 82.2% | 82.2% |
| Change in NWC | $-17.9M | $-12.8M | $15.1M | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | -1463.4% | -1809.6% | 630.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Unlevered FCF | $4.4M | $-2.7M | $-27.5M | $2.4M | $3.0M | $3.8M | $4.8M | $6.0M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | -161.3% | -922.7% | 108.8% | 25.4% | 25.3% | 25.3% | 25.3% |
| FCF / Revenue % | 359.1% | -379.4% | -1150.0% | 81.3% | 81.5% | 81.7% | 82.0% | 82.2% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.943 | 0.890 | 0.840 | 0.792 | 0.747 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $2.3M | $2.7M | $3.2M | $3.8M | $4.5M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $2.3M | $5.0M | $8.2M | $12.0M | $16.5M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 7.0% |
| Tax Rate | 25.0% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.2% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.46% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 0.37 |
| Cost of Equity | 6.1% |
| Total Debt | $1.4M |
| Market Cap | $17.7M |
| Total Capital | $19.2M |
| Debt Weighting | 7.6% |
| Equity Weighting | 92.4% |
| WACC | 6.0% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $6.0M |
| Terminal Value | $175.7M |
| PV of Terminal Value | $131.3M |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $16.5M |
| Net Debt | $-17.8M |
| Equity Value | $165.6M |
| Shares Outstanding | 14.9M |
| Implied Share Price | $11 |
| Current Share Price | $1 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | +842.3% |
Valuation Summary
$11.12
Implied Price
$1.18
Current Price
+842.3%
Upside/Downside
6.0%
WACC
LGVN Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 7 peer companies in Healthcare
P/E Ratio
$-62.96
-5435.6%
Peer Median: 55.6x
EV/EBITDA
$0.00
-100.0%
Peer Median: 0.0x
P/S Ratio
$0.39
-66.7%
Peer Median: 2.7x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for LGVN's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | LGVN Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -1.0x | 55.6x | 27.9x | -101.9% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | -Infinityx | 0.0x | 0.0x | -Infinity% | Undervalued |
| P/S Ratio | 8.0x | 2.7x | 3.0x | 199.9% | Overvalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0.02B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 37.2x | |
| $0.02B | 0.1x | 0.0x | 0.7x | |
| $0.04B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 48.2x | |
| $0.02B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 8.0x | |
| $0.02B | 55.6x | 0.0x | 0.7x | |
| $0.02B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.0x | |
| $0.02B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 2.7x |